Quiet times in the tropics

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Stormcenter
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Quiet times in the tropics

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:22 pm

I think we are in for some quiet times in the tropics
after another early start. As someone posted earlier today,
I don't think we will see our next named storm until July.
That would be good news for the folks rebuilding along the
Gulf coast. Just my opinion.
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:31 pm

The tropics can change very quickly, in a matter of days. I'll be watching closely through June.
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#3 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:33 pm

Speaking of the Gulf,our long range forecast (22nd-25th) call for 60 percent chance of rain each day,so it appears there will be plenty of moisture in the GOM for any Tropical system to draw on
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#4 Postby killah » Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:58 pm

Not surprised to see a lull in the topical action at this time. I bet it will pick back up in the start of July. Until then :bday: :cheesy:
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#5 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:05 pm

I'm not surprised. I'd be more surprised if we actually had another storm this month. Even July is typically pretty slow, so I don't think it has anything to do with what will happen in August and September.
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#6 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:10 pm

Fine with me... :cheesy:

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#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:12 pm

I almost thought this was the first the season is dead thread.
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#8 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:20 pm

I almost thought this was the first the season is dead thread.


Sadly, I think we all know better than that! Typical seasons don't really get roiling till August.

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#9 Postby Stratusxpeye » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:21 pm

Nothing unusual for this time of year. I would have been more surprised to see another storm this month. Still could but I would be surprised. Id say around mid july we'll pick up and mid november we'll stop :)
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#10 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:21 pm

Something MIGHT pop up before July,but I still believe next month will start getting more active.We could se two or three systems then :eek:
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#11 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:21 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
I almost thought this was the first the season is dead thread.


Sadly, I think we all know better than that! Typical seasons don't really get roiling till August.

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Lol, should of been here last season :roll: It's coming :lol:
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#12 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:28 pm

Lol, should of been here last season It's coming


Thanks for the warning... I'll be sure to skip over those rather than endure that sort of silliness.

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#13 Postby Brent » Fri Jun 16, 2006 3:31 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I almost thought this was the first the season is dead thread.


We've already had the first post about that. :lol:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ad#1323703
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#14 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 16, 2006 4:54 pm

JB still thinks there is a shot starting June 20th through the end of the month/early July. I am sticking with his forecast.
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#15 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 16, 2006 4:58 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB still thinks there is a shot starting June 20th through the end of the month/early July. I am sticking with his forecast.


There is another MJO slated to arrive in the East Pac around the 27th of June. Could signal another active period in the east Pac, possibly spreading into the western Caribbean.
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#16 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 16, 2006 4:58 pm

Guys i would like to point out with the MJO beginning to shift towards favoring a less -convective atlantic basin,and the normally quiet time of the year,there is a good chance a several week lull is commencing. :wink: chrisy
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#17 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB still thinks there is a shot starting June 20th through the end of the month/early July. I am sticking with his forecast.


There is another MJO slated to arrive in the East Pac around the 27th of June. Could signal another active period in the east Pac, possibly spreading into the western Caribbean.


Quick question, How accurate are the maps we see of the MJO, I remember all the hoopla last season about it until we started to see major hurricanes form during a dry MJO and nothing form during the wet phase. So, does the MJO really have a big amount of influence or are the maps just inaccurate?
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#18 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:23 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Guys i would like to point out with the MJO beginning to shift towards favoring a less -convective atlantic basin,and the normally quiet time of the year,there is a good chance a several week lull is commencing. :wink: chrisy
a good chance? may be. Do I think we will see a several week lull? no.

At this point I think it is still a wait and see game, but I would bet that we see something form in the Carrib. or Gulf within the next 20 days.
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#19 Postby Rainband » Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:Guys i would like to point out with the MJO beginning to shift towards favoring a less -convective atlantic basin,and the normally quiet time of the year,there is a good chance a several week lull is commencing. :wink: chrisy
a good chance? may be. Do I think we will see a several week lull? no.

At this point I think it is still a wait and see game, but I would bet that we see something form in the Carrib. or Gulf within the next 20 days.
This may come as a shock...but I agree with you :wink:
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Re: Quiet times in the tropics

#20 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I think we are in for some quiet times in the tropics
after another early start. As someone posted earlier today,
I don't think we will see our next named storm until July.
That would be good news for the folks rebuilding along the
Gulf coast. Just my opinion.

I just knew someone was going to post this after days without any Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic. I could see this topic coming from a mile away.

Don't let small lulls fool you, things can change in 24-72 hours. Hurricane Katrina came out of no where, I'm going to read the posts before that storm to see how many people called "season cancel". :lol:
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