matts tropical weather thinking
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-17-2006
The western Atlantic,Gulf of mexico,caribbean is mostly covered with dry air...Which is unfaverable for development. The system the cmc is forecasting for developing seems to be at 55 west/18 to 20 north nice area of centered convection. System worth watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
eastern/eastern central Atlantic to 45 west is moisture then normal with alot of water vapor. A few waves of interest...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
Wind shear appears to be half way faverable south of 12 north from 40 west to the leeward islands. Also shear has decreased at 5 to 10 knot centered near the area of interests at 15 to 18 north/55 to 58 west. Shear reminds above 20 to 30 knots above 20 north over most of the central to eastern Atlatnic..Tutt is split at 60 and 40 below 20 north...With a max of 60 knots around 25 to 30 north. A shear zone is moving off the east coast with heavy shear near the florida and east coast. Increase shear of 5 knots over the western caribbean.
Another area of interest near 45 west is showing some convection...In has developed 5 knot shear with a upper high near it. So it needs to be watched.
Sal below 10 north appears to be almost not there today...with a burst off the coast of africa to 35 to 40 west north of 12 seeming to be the strongest. another area around 50 west with less strength appears to be in place. But is below normal. Off the east coast also there appears to be a area of sal. Over all it is below avg.
Water vapor for the western Atlantic to 50 west appears to be unfaverable.
Eastern Atlatnic east of 50 seems to be very faverable.
Shear overall looks to be below normal.
Sal below normal.
The western Atlantic,Gulf of mexico,caribbean is mostly covered with dry air...Which is unfaverable for development. The system the cmc is forecasting for developing seems to be at 55 west/18 to 20 north nice area of centered convection. System worth watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
eastern/eastern central Atlantic to 45 west is moisture then normal with alot of water vapor. A few waves of interest...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
Wind shear appears to be half way faverable south of 12 north from 40 west to the leeward islands. Also shear has decreased at 5 to 10 knot centered near the area of interests at 15 to 18 north/55 to 58 west. Shear reminds above 20 to 30 knots above 20 north over most of the central to eastern Atlatnic..Tutt is split at 60 and 40 below 20 north...With a max of 60 knots around 25 to 30 north. A shear zone is moving off the east coast with heavy shear near the florida and east coast. Increase shear of 5 knots over the western caribbean.
Another area of interest near 45 west is showing some convection...In has developed 5 knot shear with a upper high near it. So it needs to be watched.
Sal below 10 north appears to be almost not there today...with a burst off the coast of africa to 35 to 40 west north of 12 seeming to be the strongest. another area around 50 west with less strength appears to be in place. But is below normal. Off the east coast also there appears to be a area of sal. Over all it is below avg.
Water vapor for the western Atlantic to 50 west appears to be unfaverable.
Eastern Atlatnic east of 50 seems to be very faverable.
Shear overall looks to be below normal.
Sal below normal.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-18-2006
The caribbean has increasing shear today over the eastern and western parts of 10 knots over the eastern/with a max of 20 knots. Which seems very very faverable for the caribbean...In really so for the eastern part. A trough has remind over the eastern sea board/western Atlantic for the last few days. In which has helped to increase shear north of 20 north over the western Atlatnic. The central Atlantic(40 to 60 west/south of 20) shear levels are below avg. Which decreasing shear over the wave near 52/55 west. Peak wind shear is centered near 25 north/45 west. A area of interest is at 24 north/57 west this morning which has decreasing shear...Which is a sign of something. The cmc model yesterday was forecasting development. With the fact that there is decreasing shear it is the most watchable areaw over the whole Atlatnic at this time. Another wave at 12/25 which has a strong mid level cirlation is devoid of convection. It should be noted that it is very well defined for this time of the shear. In would not suprize if it got into the central Atlantic in has a chance at development.
Water vapor still shows a very moist eastern Atlantic today. With only a pocket of dry air east of the MLC. Still pretty faverable. The water vapor clearly shows the trough off the east coast. Which will not allow any tropical cyclone to reach the east coast over the short term. Dry air over the caribbean/gulf of Mexico should also make it hard for development.
Sal over the caribbean looks very weak today. Same with the gulf of Mexico which is having there problem with normal dry air. Most of the Atlantic is dealing with a August like SAL set up at this moment. With only the eastern Atlantic east of 45 dealing with a punch of Sal. Which is in fact in front of the tropical wave near 12 north/25 west.
Over all I would for development from 24 north/57 west...And again as the wave moves farther west at 12 north/25 west.
Another area added for this discussion....
A tropical distrabance at 14 north/54 west is showing some arc this morning. With min convection. It should move westward over the next 24 to 36 hours into the caribbean. In which it has partly faverable SAL/Water vapor for the next 24 hours. Upper level shear is increasing slowly ahead of it...But at this moment should not harm it to bad. This area doe's appear to have a MLC/developing LLC.
The caribbean has increasing shear today over the eastern and western parts of 10 knots over the eastern/with a max of 20 knots. Which seems very very faverable for the caribbean...In really so for the eastern part. A trough has remind over the eastern sea board/western Atlantic for the last few days. In which has helped to increase shear north of 20 north over the western Atlatnic. The central Atlantic(40 to 60 west/south of 20) shear levels are below avg. Which decreasing shear over the wave near 52/55 west. Peak wind shear is centered near 25 north/45 west. A area of interest is at 24 north/57 west this morning which has decreasing shear...Which is a sign of something. The cmc model yesterday was forecasting development. With the fact that there is decreasing shear it is the most watchable areaw over the whole Atlatnic at this time. Another wave at 12/25 which has a strong mid level cirlation is devoid of convection. It should be noted that it is very well defined for this time of the shear. In would not suprize if it got into the central Atlantic in has a chance at development.
Water vapor still shows a very moist eastern Atlantic today. With only a pocket of dry air east of the MLC. Still pretty faverable. The water vapor clearly shows the trough off the east coast. Which will not allow any tropical cyclone to reach the east coast over the short term. Dry air over the caribbean/gulf of Mexico should also make it hard for development.
Sal over the caribbean looks very weak today. Same with the gulf of Mexico which is having there problem with normal dry air. Most of the Atlantic is dealing with a August like SAL set up at this moment. With only the eastern Atlantic east of 45 dealing with a punch of Sal. Which is in fact in front of the tropical wave near 12 north/25 west.
Over all I would for development from 24 north/57 west...And again as the wave moves farther west at 12 north/25 west.
Another area added for this discussion....
A tropical distrabance at 14 north/54 west is showing some arc this morning. With min convection. It should move westward over the next 24 to 36 hours into the caribbean. In which it has partly faverable SAL/Water vapor for the next 24 hours. Upper level shear is increasing slowly ahead of it...But at this moment should not harm it to bad. This area doe's appear to have a MLC/developing LLC.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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senorpepr wrote:Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I will keep a daily update on shear and sal in this thread.
Woohoo!Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Feel free to discuse your thinking or what you think.
I think I could use a beer... or two.
I'm surprised to see a moderator and professional met making sarcastic remarks to a fellow poster on Storm 2K
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senorpepr
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rainydaze wrote:I'm surprised to see a moderator and professional met making sarcastic remarks to a fellow poster on Storm 2K
The woohoo wasn't sarcastic. It's a good thing that there is a thread to organize this sort of topic. Matter of fact, I also posted a satellite image showing the dust that Matthew was referring to.
As for the beer comment... that's for good morale -- no harm meant by it. If it offended you, I apologize. That was not my intent.
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I'm sorry I interpreted your post the wrong way!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-19-2006
Overall Atlantic water vapor
Today the western Atlatnic east of 75 west/south of 30 south has become moisture. But the gulf and caribbean still are very dry as of this time. Eastern Caribbean has some water vapor. In the water vapor you can clearly see that the trough is still centered over florida. With another/tutt shear zone centered at about 70 to 75 west over the eastern caribean. Eastern Atlatnic a area of dry air has formed from 8 to 15 north/48 to 28 west which is unfaverable today. Moist air reminds over the cape verdes. Also you can see that there is a large upper level low centered at 30 north/38 west. Which is forming strong upper level shear(More in the shear discussion.)
Rating
Gulf of Mexico Poor
western Atlantic fair
Caribbean poor/Eastern Caribbean fair
central Ataltnic fair-poor
Eastern Atlantic fair
Overall Atlantic shear
Overall strength of the tutt has increase since yesterday over the eastern caribbean...With 30 knot shear centered around 18 north/68 west. This zone forms a shear zone/tutt going southwest to northeast with another max at 20 north/55 west of 40 knots. It then go northeastward into the upper low at 30 north/28 west. The trough off the east coast appears to have slided its main energy to the north around long island. But overall shear north of 20 north over the western Atlantic looks very unfaverable with most of the area with 20 to 30 knot shear. A note I was watching my 2002 video tapes last night, an saw that there was a strong tutt over the caribbean. Yes 2002 had Isidor and lilli. But it was el nino(Which it was) aslo it formed storms over the central Pacific. If something gets going over the central pacific and its a hurricane(Which has not happen since then)then that should be of interest.
But lets get back to whats going on with the shear. Overall over the last 3 hours the shear pattern has not changed much with some slight increases over the western caribbean. But decreases of 5 to 10 knots with the system moving into the leewards/windward islands. Which should be of interest. The system at 22 north/62 west shear is at over 20 knots. Which is unfaverable.
Rating
Looking less faverable then it did yesterday. With most of the caribbean and western Atlantic unfaverable.
Overall Atlantic SAL
Sal appears to be limited if not hardly there west of 45 to 50 west south of 30 north. With only one area of strong SAL west of 45 west to the cape verdes north of 10 south of 25. It is looking very faverable...
Area's of interest...
Today we got 3 area's of interest.
1# Over the leeward/windward islands
2# Around 22 north/62 west
3# The upper low off Florida which has formed some convection.
1# The leewards wave which has become less organized since yesterday. But still has a broad MLC at 15 north/58 west. But with the tutt forcing shear over it. Not much shear anything north of 15 is going to form. I would watch the area south of 12 north like Isidor 2002. The shear may weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then kick the system into the central Caribbean/western caribbean. In which with the troughs off the eastern sea board go prove interesting.
2# A small area at 22 or 23 north/62/63 west. Which the cmc been trying to develop. Shear levels appear to be around 20 to 25 knots...Around a sea of 30 knot shear. Which is a sign but very high for development. I watch for a more subtropical like system if it did. But I'm not really to interested at this time.
3# The area off Florida. Yes this area reminds me of Alex 2004 and a few others. It is centered at 26 north/76 west. But what is interesting is the lowing of the overall shear...In yes since it is a upper low that should be expected. But the overall highest shear has moved northward. With flare ups of convection mainly over the eastern side. But not only that but over the center its self some are flaring up. This reminds me totally have Alex. If the deeper convection can form over the center over the next 24 to 36 hours. I would watch for tropical cyclone development. In a westward movement of the system. Who knows where it will go.
Special area...
The MLCC over texas is moving southeastward. In has a strong curving/arc. Systems have been known to form this way so its worth watching.
Overall Atlantic water vapor
Today the western Atlatnic east of 75 west/south of 30 south has become moisture. But the gulf and caribbean still are very dry as of this time. Eastern Caribbean has some water vapor. In the water vapor you can clearly see that the trough is still centered over florida. With another/tutt shear zone centered at about 70 to 75 west over the eastern caribean. Eastern Atlatnic a area of dry air has formed from 8 to 15 north/48 to 28 west which is unfaverable today. Moist air reminds over the cape verdes. Also you can see that there is a large upper level low centered at 30 north/38 west. Which is forming strong upper level shear(More in the shear discussion.)
Rating
Gulf of Mexico Poor
western Atlantic fair
Caribbean poor/Eastern Caribbean fair
central Ataltnic fair-poor
Eastern Atlantic fair
Overall Atlantic shear
Overall strength of the tutt has increase since yesterday over the eastern caribbean...With 30 knot shear centered around 18 north/68 west. This zone forms a shear zone/tutt going southwest to northeast with another max at 20 north/55 west of 40 knots. It then go northeastward into the upper low at 30 north/28 west. The trough off the east coast appears to have slided its main energy to the north around long island. But overall shear north of 20 north over the western Atlantic looks very unfaverable with most of the area with 20 to 30 knot shear. A note I was watching my 2002 video tapes last night, an saw that there was a strong tutt over the caribbean. Yes 2002 had Isidor and lilli. But it was el nino(Which it was) aslo it formed storms over the central Pacific. If something gets going over the central pacific and its a hurricane(Which has not happen since then)then that should be of interest.
But lets get back to whats going on with the shear. Overall over the last 3 hours the shear pattern has not changed much with some slight increases over the western caribbean. But decreases of 5 to 10 knots with the system moving into the leewards/windward islands. Which should be of interest. The system at 22 north/62 west shear is at over 20 knots. Which is unfaverable.
Rating
Looking less faverable then it did yesterday. With most of the caribbean and western Atlantic unfaverable.
Overall Atlantic SAL
Sal appears to be limited if not hardly there west of 45 to 50 west south of 30 north. With only one area of strong SAL west of 45 west to the cape verdes north of 10 south of 25. It is looking very faverable...
Area's of interest...
Today we got 3 area's of interest.
1# Over the leeward/windward islands
2# Around 22 north/62 west
3# The upper low off Florida which has formed some convection.
1# The leewards wave which has become less organized since yesterday. But still has a broad MLC at 15 north/58 west. But with the tutt forcing shear over it. Not much shear anything north of 15 is going to form. I would watch the area south of 12 north like Isidor 2002. The shear may weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then kick the system into the central Caribbean/western caribbean. In which with the troughs off the eastern sea board go prove interesting.
2# A small area at 22 or 23 north/62/63 west. Which the cmc been trying to develop. Shear levels appear to be around 20 to 25 knots...Around a sea of 30 knot shear. Which is a sign but very high for development. I watch for a more subtropical like system if it did. But I'm not really to interested at this time.
3# The area off Florida. Yes this area reminds me of Alex 2004 and a few others. It is centered at 26 north/76 west. But what is interesting is the lowing of the overall shear...In yes since it is a upper low that should be expected. But the overall highest shear has moved northward. With flare ups of convection mainly over the eastern side. But not only that but over the center its self some are flaring up. This reminds me totally have Alex. If the deeper convection can form over the center over the next 24 to 36 hours. I would watch for tropical cyclone development. In a westward movement of the system. Who knows where it will go.
Special area...
The MLCC over texas is moving southeastward. In has a strong curving/arc. Systems have been known to form this way so its worth watching.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-20-2006
Water vapor
Overall western Atlantic looks to have become slightly more moist. But still very very dry over the Gulf of Mexico and caribbean. The wave at 67-68 west has a good amount of moisture. And again the upper level low/ULL over the western Atlantic has gained a good amount of moist air over its center/around it. A flare up of convection has formed around it at 75 west/26 north. Which is moving north or slightly north-northeastward. Which has died down a little. With the fact that there is alot of moisture/convection forming over or near the center is a bonus. The core of the upper level low is just off key west florida/south of Miami florida. Which is also moving to the northeast. Also remember Bill of 2003/Grace/Fay they all developed on the east sides of upper lows/Ulls. This area has nice upper level outflow on the water vapor. Also the wave at 68 west maybe transporting its northern heat over to this system. Which is helping it to develop some. But still needs to watch the area just north of 15 north for a possible westward into the western caribbea.
The area around the western caribbean also has flared up. In moisten the southwestern part of the Caribbean. This system is likely to get into the eastern pacific for a chance at developing. But you never know.
The normal dry air has finally moved into the cape verde/eastern Atlantic. So everything north of 12 north east of 40 is unfaverable right now. The ULL has backed to 40 west/30 north. Which is part of the Tutt.
Wind shear
Also to the southeast side of the Upper level low. We have strong upper level shear over the western caribbean. Which is centered at 18 north/80 west. But most of the caribbean has become unfaverable but maybe the southeast part. The tutt has shifted running from the upper low over 30/40 splighting one to a max shear area of 50 knots near 38 west. And yet anotherat 50 west. Before you say that tropcial cyclones/subtropical cyclone can not form under Ulls remember it can happen. Not has faverable for strengthing but it can. The central into the eastern Atlantic looks to be 100 percent unfaverable for tropical cyclone development north of 12. By far the gulf of mexico you would say at least with shear is most faverable. After the system northeast of the ULL near Florida. Which also has decreasing wind shear of 5 to 10 knots with it. The gulf of Mexico has 10 to 20 knot decreases. Which if any of that 68 west wave can hold together its worth watching. You can forget it for the central Atlantic into the caribbean/western Atlantic with 10 to 20 knot increases.
SAL
A strong SAL has formed east of 40 west...And most of the rest of the Atlatnic looks faverable next to normal. This is really all that needs to go into this area today.
So for development watch that area off florida. Which is likely to reflare tonight. In then watch that wave moving through the caribbean at 68 west...Once that moves into the western caribbean or gulf then it may have a chance.
Water vapor
Overall western Atlantic looks to have become slightly more moist. But still very very dry over the Gulf of Mexico and caribbean. The wave at 67-68 west has a good amount of moisture. And again the upper level low/ULL over the western Atlantic has gained a good amount of moist air over its center/around it. A flare up of convection has formed around it at 75 west/26 north. Which is moving north or slightly north-northeastward. Which has died down a little. With the fact that there is alot of moisture/convection forming over or near the center is a bonus. The core of the upper level low is just off key west florida/south of Miami florida. Which is also moving to the northeast. Also remember Bill of 2003/Grace/Fay they all developed on the east sides of upper lows/Ulls. This area has nice upper level outflow on the water vapor. Also the wave at 68 west maybe transporting its northern heat over to this system. Which is helping it to develop some. But still needs to watch the area just north of 15 north for a possible westward into the western caribbea.
The area around the western caribbean also has flared up. In moisten the southwestern part of the Caribbean. This system is likely to get into the eastern pacific for a chance at developing. But you never know.
The normal dry air has finally moved into the cape verde/eastern Atlantic. So everything north of 12 north east of 40 is unfaverable right now. The ULL has backed to 40 west/30 north. Which is part of the Tutt.
Wind shear
Also to the southeast side of the Upper level low. We have strong upper level shear over the western caribbean. Which is centered at 18 north/80 west. But most of the caribbean has become unfaverable but maybe the southeast part. The tutt has shifted running from the upper low over 30/40 splighting one to a max shear area of 50 knots near 38 west. And yet anotherat 50 west. Before you say that tropcial cyclones/subtropical cyclone can not form under Ulls remember it can happen. Not has faverable for strengthing but it can. The central into the eastern Atlantic looks to be 100 percent unfaverable for tropical cyclone development north of 12. By far the gulf of mexico you would say at least with shear is most faverable. After the system northeast of the ULL near Florida. Which also has decreasing wind shear of 5 to 10 knots with it. The gulf of Mexico has 10 to 20 knot decreases. Which if any of that 68 west wave can hold together its worth watching. You can forget it for the central Atlantic into the caribbean/western Atlantic with 10 to 20 knot increases.
SAL
A strong SAL has formed east of 40 west...And most of the rest of the Atlatnic looks faverable next to normal. This is really all that needs to go into this area today.
So for development watch that area off florida. Which is likely to reflare tonight. In then watch that wave moving through the caribbean at 68 west...Once that moves into the western caribbean or gulf then it may have a chance.
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