AXNT20 KNHC 182325
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
THERE IS BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE. DESPITE THE FAIR SIGNATURE...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.
A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED AHEAD ALONG 54W
SOUTH OF 16N BASED UPON TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM. A BURST OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 54W-56W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 19N.
THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED. HOWEVER...THIS
FEATURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N28W 5N34W 9N48W 7N60W.
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 54W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-36W. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF
18W N OF 2N.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DIPS INTO THE NW GULF. A
WEAK ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN
SE TEXAS PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA HAS WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
EXTREME SE GULF AND FLORIDA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
W ATLANTIC IS BACKING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS OVER SW FLORIDA WHERE SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEAR 3-5
INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. AT THE SURFACE...DISTANT HIGH PRES IN THE
W ATLANTIC CONTROLS THE PATTERN PRODUCING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...A
WEAK SFC HIGH MAY DEVELOP IN THE E GULF ENHANCING FAIR WEATHER.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW
GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY IN THE W ATLANTIC BUT
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA TO
NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AMERICA. A PLUME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTED FROM S AMERICA AND
SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED BELOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG 67W AND MAY BE ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. A
MORE IMPRESSIVE FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
AREA MAY SPREAD SOME OF ITS MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS
TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS EVENING. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
NEAR JAMAICA. AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO
26N73W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND SOME SFC LIFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 62W-72W. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N50W. SWLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LIE BETWEEN 52W-59W FROM 20N-28N. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH
ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE REGION N OF 20N BETWEEN
23W-44W. IN THE EAST ATLC...A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN
DUST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A DOMINATING 1035 MB
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH OF DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 40N42W WITH A SECONDARY HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N69W
CONTROLS THE SFC PATTERN.
$$
CANGIALOSI
TWD and TWO - Please post the latest here.
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cycloneye
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cycloneye
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897
ABNT20 KNHC 190215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 190215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Meso
- Category 5
- Posts: 1609
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: South Africa
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190856
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING IS MOVING W AT
20 MILES PER HOUR. THE WAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TUE..OTHERWISE TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RRG
ABNT20 KNHC 190856
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING IS MOVING W AT
20 MILES PER HOUR. THE WAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TUE..OTHERWISE TROPICAL
STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/RRG
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cycloneye
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- Age: 69
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED BROAD MULTILAYERED CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N54W-15N59W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH HEAVER RAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CONTINUES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N27W 7N49W 15N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 9N W OF 9W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 31W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-23W AND FROM
42W-49W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM
92W-96W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E
GULF E OF 88W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF STATES. GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 82W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 76W-83W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 31N69W SW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 24N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N
BETWEEN 66W-80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
60W-66W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 21N48W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N50W. A THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 55W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
30W.
$$
WALLACE
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED BROAD MULTILAYERED CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N54W-15N59W.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH HEAVER RAIN LATER IN THE DAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT CONTINUES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. WAVE REMAINS BENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N27W 7N49W 15N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 9N W OF 9W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 31W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 43W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-23W AND FROM
42W-49W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO TEXAS
AND THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM
92W-96W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC INCLUDES THE E
GULF E OF 88W. THIS LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF STATES. GULF REMAINS QUIET TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 82W
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 76W-83W.
THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N FROM
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM W OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH 31N69W SW OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 24N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 28N
BETWEEN 66W-80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN
60W-66W. NARROW RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN THE W ATLC TROUGH AND A
BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 21N48W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THE DEEP TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N50W. A THIN LAYER OF
AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE E ATLC S OF 20N E OF 55W THUS
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
30W.
$$
WALLACE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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086
ABNT20 KNHC 191500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 191500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR
ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
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AXNT20 KNHC 191808
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...EXCEPT FOR METEOSAT IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 18N WEST 15 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N66W 13N62W 14N61W 17N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...IN PART WITH THE ITCZ
AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N55W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N11W 6N20W 6N29W 6N35W 7N49W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 14W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONT...IS ALONG
29N71W 24N74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...WITH A TROUGH GOING FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/
EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA BORDERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
IN THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N67W 26N74W 23N78W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 25N EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 15N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE
IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 18N TO 38N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.
$$
MT
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...EXCEPT FOR METEOSAT IMAGERY VALID THROUGH 1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 18N WEST 15 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N66W 13N62W 14N61W 17N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHWARD TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...IN PART WITH THE ITCZ
AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N55W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N11W 6N20W 6N29W 6N35W 7N49W 12N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 14W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANT OF AN EARLIER FRONT...IS ALONG
29N71W 24N74W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...WITH A TROUGH GOING FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE NICARAGUA/
EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA BORDERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
IN THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N67W 26N74W 23N78W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 25N EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 15N55W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE
IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N37W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 18N TO 38N
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT... BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT... BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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AXNT20 KNHC 192315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 15N.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT EMBEDDED IN SWIFT
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. LOW-MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION AND CONSIDERING THE FORWARD SPEED
CONTINUITY OF THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS THE REASON FOR
THE WAVE ADJUSTMENT. DESPITE THE FAIR WAVE SIGNATURE...LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. A FEW OF THE
ISLAND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS INDICATING THE WAVE PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE TO ITS
EAST...THIS WAVE IS ALSO STEERED BY SWIFT LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING NEAR THE AXIS WITH MUCH OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
240 NM. WHILE THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR MORE CONVECTIVE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT BASED UPON SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION
IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N28W 9N42W 14N59W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 28W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN THE NW CORNER
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 1015 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29.5N
95.4W. THIS LOW IS FAIRLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
IN THAT REGION. THESE TOTALS WILL RISE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
IS ALONG 90W FROM 26N-30N. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY DISSIPATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY
QUIET UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PRODUCING LIGHT E/SE WINDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A FAIRLY WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE
GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW GULF...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND
IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS
WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
50W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-49W N OF 20N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THE
SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1033 MB AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH CONTROLS THE
SFC PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN
THIS RIDGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS A SFC
TROUGH. SAHARAN DUST IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E ATLC
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
$$
CANGIALOSI
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 15N.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT EMBEDDED IN SWIFT
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. LOW-MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION AND CONSIDERING THE FORWARD SPEED
CONTINUITY OF THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS THE REASON FOR
THE WAVE ADJUSTMENT. DESPITE THE FAIR WAVE SIGNATURE...LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT. A FEW OF THE
ISLAND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS INDICATING THE WAVE PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE TO ITS
EAST...THIS WAVE IS ALSO STEERED BY SWIFT LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THERE IS LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING NEAR THE AXIS WITH MUCH OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
240 NM. WHILE THIS WAVE DOES APPEAR MORE CONVECTIVE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20 KT BASED UPON SLIGHT
VEERING OF THE WIND DIRECTION AND CONSIDERING CONTINUITY OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION
IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 9N28W 9N42W 14N59W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS E OF 28W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE GULF IS IN THE NW CORNER
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL 1015 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29.5N
95.4W. THIS LOW IS FAIRLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS...SW LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
IN THAT REGION. THESE TOTALS WILL RISE AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 92W-96W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
IS ALONG 90W FROM 26N-30N. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY DISSIPATED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY
QUIET UNDER WEAK SFC HIGH PRES PRODUCING LIGHT E/SE WINDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A FAIRLY WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE
GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO AND A BROAD ELONGATED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. QUIET WEATHER IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NW GULF...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND
IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS
WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
50W-73W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N38W WITH
ITS CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-49W N OF 20N.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. AT THE
SURFACE...A DOMINATING 1033 MB AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH CONTROLS THE
SFC PATTERN PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY BLEMISH IN
THIS RIDGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW AS A SFC
TROUGH. SAHARAN DUST IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E ATLC
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
$$
CANGIALOSI
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TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 200847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CENTRAL CUBA... AND EXTEND EASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOWS NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME... AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER... BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
459
AXNT20 KNHC 201035
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N27W 7N47W 11N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 11W-29W AND FROM 53W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-36W AND FROM
39W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS FROM 32N93W TO 27N98W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
E TEXAS FROM 31N95W TO 28N99W GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N W OF 92W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA
OF TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
SW ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THEW YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM E LOUISIANA TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS
MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO
THE GULF CLIPPING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N FROM HAITI TO E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 13N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 10N80W TO INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 28N70W SW ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
68W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-80W. BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
E ATLC NEAR 30N39W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 18N AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 33N36W TO 24N41W.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 201035
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAKER
BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS TO THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO PUERTO RICO.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE CURVATURE REMAINS WEAK AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N27W 7N47W 11N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 11W-29W AND FROM 53W-59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-36W AND FROM
39W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE LOUISIANA/
TEXAS FROM 32N93W TO 27N98W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
E TEXAS FROM 31N95W TO 28N99W GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N W OF 92W. THIS HAS CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THAT AREA
OF TEXAS YESTERDAY. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W
ATLC EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
SW ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THEW YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM E LOUISIANA TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET THIS
MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO
THE GULF CLIPPING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N FROM HAITI TO E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 13N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING NW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 10N80W TO INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 28N70W SW ACROSS THE N
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
68W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 58W-80W. BROAD RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-70W ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N57W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
E ATLC NEAR 30N39W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 18N AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDING FROM 33N36W TO 24N41W.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N.
$$
WALLACE
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CHRISTY
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201451
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ABNT20 KNHC 201451
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
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cycloneye
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- Posts: 146196
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 201803
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 19N WEST 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. NO DEEP SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST BECAUSE OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE...THANKS TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 13N58W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N58W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N15W 5N27W 7N40W 7N45W 8N55W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N9W 6N16W 4N24W 4N28W
6N32W 5N43W 6N52W 8N56W 10N61W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W 26N75W 23N80W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N73W 26N75W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE UNDER A RIDGE IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AND COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
94W AND 98W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W ALSO IS
EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 13N58W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS
PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 77W/78W TROPICAL WAVE ON TOP
OF JAMAICA DOES NOT CARRY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N39W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N46W AND 17N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS
WITHIN NEARLY 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N42W 30N42W 32N42W 36N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND FROM
30N TO 34N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH INTERRUPTS
OTHERWISE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.
$$
MT
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 19N WEST 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. NO DEEP SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST BECAUSE OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD OUT
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. SOME CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPECIFICALLY
ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THIS WAVE...THANKS TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 13N58W JUST OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS WAVE ARE BLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A HIGH CENTER JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N58W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N15W 5N27W 7N40W 7N45W 8N55W 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N9W 6N16W 4N24W 4N28W
6N32W 5N43W 6N52W 8N56W 10N61W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT
REGARDING PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W 26N75W 23N80W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N73W 26N75W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN
69W AND 74W...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS TAKING PLACE UNDER A RIDGE IMMEDIATELY TO
THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AND COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
94W AND 98W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH. THE REST OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W ALSO IS
EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A 13N58W ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH
CENTER COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS
PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 77W/78W TROPICAL WAVE ON TOP
OF JAMAICA DOES NOT CARRY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N39W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N46W AND 17N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS
WITHIN NEARLY 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N42W 30N42W 32N42W 36N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...AND FROM
30N TO 34N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH INTERRUPTS
OTHERWISE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.
$$
MT
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
496
ABNT20 KNHC 202122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS... AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 202122
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS... AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 202310
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING
THIS WAVE EASY TO LOCATE. DESPITE THE CLEAR WAVE
SIGNATURE...THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS...LIKELY STRONGEST IN CONVECTION. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY BECAME ILL-DEFINED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON SOME VEERING OF
WINDS AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THIS WAVE WAS MOVED CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS EXACTLY...IT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N29W 7N44W 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-28W AND 34W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 43W-51W POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS S TEXAS IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LINGERING N OF 28N W OF 94W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER WHERE A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SFC...A 1020
MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N
WITH FAIR SKIES SOUTH OF THERE WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY.
CARIBBEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS REGION IS IN A ZONE OF
HIGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SOME SFC FORCING FROM A NEARBY
TROPICAL WAVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INTENSE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA. THIS BATCH OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED BUT IT WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY.
ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. A NARROW WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 24N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 69W-71W. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
FROM 53W-77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS A SFC
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 35N39W TO 27N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. UPPER RIDGING IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SAHARAN DUST IS WIDESPREAD IN THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EARLIER VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED HAZY CONDITIONS
INDICATING POSSIBLE DUST CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR
THE SFC TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER LIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED.
$$
CANGIALOSI
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKING
THIS WAVE EASY TO LOCATE. DESPITE THE CLEAR WAVE
SIGNATURE...THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS...LIKELY STRONGEST IN CONVECTION. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AS MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY BECAME ILL-DEFINED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON SOME VEERING OF
WINDS AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...THIS WAVE WAS MOVED CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS EXACTLY...IT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 4N29W 7N44W 9N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 20W-28W AND 34W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 43W-51W POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS S TEXAS IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LINGERING N OF 28N W OF 94W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF IS UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER WHERE A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SFC...A 1020
MB HIGH IS LOCATED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29N86W.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N
WITH FAIR SKIES SOUTH OF THERE WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY.
CARIBBEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS REGION IS IN A ZONE OF
HIGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SOME SFC FORCING FROM A NEARBY
TROPICAL WAVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER MORE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LIES
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-72W THIS INCLUDES HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN EASTERN ISLANDS. SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS
BECOMING INTENSE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND E
CUBA. THIS BATCH OF WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED BUT IT WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LARGE
BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH REMAINS STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY.
ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. A NARROW WEAKENING ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH ALONG 30N70W 24N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DISSIPATING TREND OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 69W-71W. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
FROM 53W-77W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W. THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS A SFC
REFLECTION AS A TROUGH FROM 35N39W TO 27N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. UPPER RIDGING IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE UPPER
LOW. SAHARAN DUST IS WIDESPREAD IN THE E ATLC SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EARLIER VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED HAZY CONDITIONS
INDICATING POSSIBLE DUST CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC...BESIDES FOR
THE SFC TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC...HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE THEME. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER LIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NOT OUTLINED.
$$
CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 210214
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
ABNT20 KNHC 210903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ARE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
AXNT20 KNHC 211115
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION F OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 2N FROM 44W-50W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA/PANAMA FROM 75W/77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N67W-18N75W-
15N80W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 4N30W 6N41W 7N51W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
24W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS
TO OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US OVER FLORIDA N OF 24N E
OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF THE KEYS TO
26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
13N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W NW TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N E OF 67W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N69W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
66W-77W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE
UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR
32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM 27W-61W. WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N WITH CLEARING FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
ABNT20 KNHC 210903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ARE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
AXNT20 KNHC 211115
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION F OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 2N FROM 44W-50W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA/PANAMA FROM 75W/77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N67W-18N75W-
15N80W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 4N30W 6N41W 7N51W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 29W-53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF
24W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
COVERING THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS
TO OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE FAR SE US OVER FLORIDA N OF 24N E
OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF THE KEYS TO
26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
13N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N79W NW TO NICARAGUA
NEAR 12N84W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER FLOW IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N E OF 67W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 75W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N69W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN
66W-77W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 67W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE LARGE
UPPER LOW NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR
32N40W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM 27W-61W. WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS ALONG 41W FROM 27N-34N. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION. THIN LAYER OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ TO S OF 10N WITH CLEARING FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
$$
WALLACE
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CHRISTY
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 211518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT...WITH
AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OFF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE 21/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO SEEN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 5N30W 7N40W 7N51W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N EAST
OF 20W ARE PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF AFRICA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W COVERING
THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ENE ACROSS
THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF
THE KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 76W.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 74W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N68W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 66W-69W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 65W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE REST OF
THE ATLC AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM
27W-60W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
EXTENDS ALONG 31N42W 24N45W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF
70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION.
$$
GR
Oh boy,I am late posting the 2 PM discussion.
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT...WITH
AN INVERTED V-PATTERN EMBEDDED WITH THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION OFF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TOMORROW AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO THE 21/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALSO SEEN AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 5N30W 7N40W 7N51W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION MOVING JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N EAST
OF 20W ARE PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF AFRICA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W COVERING
THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ENE ACROSS
THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER NW MEXICO ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO OFF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA BAY N OF
THE KEYS TO 26N E OF 83W TO THE FLORIDA W COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE GULF WSW TO OFF THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE GULF
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. THE STRONGEST SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
BASIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 76W.
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM OVER
FLORIDA TO 74W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 31N68W SW
ALONG 27N73W TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 71W-75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 66W-69W. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
ALONG 65W FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N. THE REST OF
THE ATLC AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
IS CENTERED NEAR 32N42W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 16N FROM
27W-60W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
EXTENDS ALONG 31N42W 24N45W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF
70W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION.
$$
GR
Oh boy,I am late posting the 2 PM discussion.
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