5.75" in 75 minutes at Houston Hobby Airport

[jasons2k]

Hey Portastorm,

All the reports I heard on the radio this AM indicate I-45 itself through Galveston county is OK - but the feeder roads and sidestreets are flooding. Looking at the radar loop training continues along I-45 (where Texas City is) so travelling there is probably not a good idea. Of course, coming from Austin, it may be cleared-out in a few hours. However, it looks like the ULL is now finally backing to the west which means we could have another round later today and/or tonight.

[Stratosphere747]

Hey gang, I need your advice. I have an employee traveling later today from Austin to Texas City for a work event scheduled for Tuesday at the noon hour.

Should I have her cancel the trip? Is it that bad in that area?

Thanks in advance ... please post here or PM me!!

If possible I would wait until Tuedsay A.M. before making a decision.

610 is a mess. 45 sounds ok for now, but looks like from League City south to Galveston is getting quite a bit of rain. Also depends on where this low tracks.

[Portastorm]

Guys, thanks for your good advice.

I REALLY appreciate it!

Think I will hold off sending her this evening and wait 'til tomorrow morning and see what that low does.

[southerngale]

I hate when there's two threads about the same thing. lol
I posted this is another one:

It was still raining into the wee hours of the morning. Watching radar, it was like it just kept re-developing in close to the same area and hitting us over and over. I woke up a little while ago to my sister telling me that one of our friend's house is flooding! She heard one of the mets (maybe Frank Billingsley from KPRC?) explain where the high and the low was and how the setup was similar to Allison. Anyone else see that?

One of our local mets said something about it going into the GOM and then backing right back over us. Man, it's either a drought or we're flooding. I don't think we've had any rain since the last time it flooded here (first of June I think) until these heavy showers first started early Saturday.
That same met was on TV telling people to get off the road...they're driving down flooded streets pushing more water into homes. A lot of places have closed.

Any of our pro-mets want to chime in if this is coming to an end or more rain? NWS had our rain chances pretty low for today and early this morning, raised them a lot. I guess they weren't expecting this system to do whatever it is doing.

Here's a pic from KFDM:

My friend had JUST completed her Rita repairs. She's in a mess, and it's still raining there.
The rain had let up at my house for a few hours, but now it's raining again.

I saw this on KFDM:

Josh Lichter, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Houston, said another rainmaking storm was expected to develop late Monday afternoon.

"We're not exactly sure where these new storms are going to form," Lichter said. "We're going to get another round of storms forming. Our concern is that it's going to happen right over the same area of Houston and that could definitely cause some significant problems."

Lichter said the rains were expected to move out of the Houston area by Wednesday.

"We probably have another 48 hours of this," he said Monday morning.

48 hours??? That's the first I've heard of that!

[jasons2k]

yeah, yesterday they were thinking the low would have backed to our west by now, but it's still NE of here towards Liberty. It looks like it's finally drifting now...but with it not through Houston yet it looks like it's taking longer than expected to clear out. Unfortunately the worst may be still to come....

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS'S FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THIS EVENT IS
NOT OVER YET! NEARLY STATIONARY MCV TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
HOUSTON AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST IN A LONG LINE OF FLOOD
EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THAT HAPPENS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GALVESTON COUNTY...GALVESTON
BAY AND OFF THE COAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THESE RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FOUND OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 8 AND 11
INCHES IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD ACROSS BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EASILY BEING
REACHED. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
ABOUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
FALL AROUND AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUR FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES
ALREADY IN THE WATCH AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FURTHER OFF TO THE
WEST. FIRST GUESSES ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TONIGHT. THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SERIOUS FLOODING!

CONSULT OUR FLOOD WARNINGS (FLWHGX) FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS

[Johnny]

This ULL isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

What I want to know is, why is most of the convection associated with this ULL on the south and southeast side of it? We haven't seen a drop here in central Montgomery County. It looks like this trend will continue.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1046 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS'S FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THIS EVENT IS
NOT OVER YET! NEARLY STATIONARY MCV TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
HOUSTON AREA RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST IN A LONG LINE OF FLOOD
EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AS THAT HAPPENS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE NOW FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF GALVESTON COUNTY...GALVESTON
BAY AND OFF THE COAST AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. THESE RAINS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FOUND OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN 8 AND 11
INCHES IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD ACROSS BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EASILY BEING
REACHED. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNED
ABOUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS
EARLY AS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE BIG CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MIGHT
FALL AROUND AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN THIS MORNING.
OUR FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FOR COUNTIES
ALREADY IN THE WATCH AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FURTHER OFF TO THE
WEST. FIRST GUESSES ON RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH TOTALS WITH
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TONIGHT. THESE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SERIOUS FLOODING!

CONSULT OUR FLOOD WARNINGS (FLWHGX) FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS

this is bad. 5-10 more inches could put some areas over the 20" mark by tomorrow morning! I think the flooding may get much worse later on. Also, if precip. develops around the low, then places north of where the heaviest rain was last night could begin to get hit, and possibly even by some severe weather. I can not believe we are seeing such a big event without there being a tropical cyclone involved.

Stay safe everyone!

[jasons2k]

This ULL isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

What I want to know is, why is most of the convection associated with this ULL on the south and southeast side of it? We haven't seen a drop here in central Montgomery County. It looks like this trend will continue.

The S and SE side is getting the inflow from the GOM, while the west and NW side isn't. The SW flank is also getting convection - mostly from heating as an outflow boundry from this AM's storms march toward the coast. That's why new storms are popping in Fort Bend and Brazoria.

For us in Montgomery County, we will probably need to wait until tonight for much more. As the low itself trecks west across the Houston area, nighttime rain should develop near the low itself, especially to its east and south.

[KatDaddy]

This afternoon's forecast discussion


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
236 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE STILL UNDER THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS
AND ON INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SLOW
WESTWARD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW CENTERED NORTH
OF THE HOUSTON AREA AND IS APPROACHING I-45. THIS IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE MODELS THAT DRIFT THIS SYSTEM TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GREATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES ARE
BEING RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN THE CITIES OF MATAGORDA AND FREEPORT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS PROBABLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOME TIME THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD...LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. TRAINING WILL PROBABLY
SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THAT IS WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THIS COULD ESPECIALLY BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM IF THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS AREAS THAT EARLIER TODAY RECEIVED
5 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN. [b]A POSSIBLE SCENARIO (ONE OF MANY) IS THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTY
COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL THEN DEVELOP/EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. THE 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL
FORECAST COULD END UP BEING TOO LOW...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
FORECAST UPDATES DURING THIS ONGOING SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.[/b] THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SHELBY TO MONTGOMERY TO CORRIGAN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

[Gorky]

The rainfall totals being indicated by the Fort Polk radar through GRLevel3 are amazing...



Some of those totals are as high as 23.5 inches indicated.The totals from the Houston site around Houston itself top out at a mere 13.5 inches however