Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

Johnny · #41 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:44 pm

Yep, it looks like convection is starting to rap all around the circulaton but widely scattered. Usually to locate a spin, visible satellite is the way to go but you can see the spin just by looking at radar. Pretty impressive.

Stratosphere747 · #42 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:52 pm

Have one heck of a training line setting up in central Brazoria county and west. Received almost 2 inches of rain in about 20min just outside of Angleton.

Yankeegirl · #43 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 12:53 pm

I dont think we have got much rain here since early this morning.. still looks yucky out though... not a good park day....

WXBUFFJIM · #44 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:41 pm

jschlitz wrote:Looking at GRLevel3 and satellite pics, it looks to me like the low is now centered in far NE Harris County - in the wedge between Liberty and Montgomery counties. It looks like it is drifting almost due West or WSW and some showers are now forming on the north side of the circulation.

This doesn't look good. If it continues on this track, the center may end-up near the Katy or Sugar Land area overnight, which would be very bad for most of Houston.

Certainly the setup southwest of Houston worries me overnight tonight. An area of rain cooled air is moving southwest from Houston over towards Victoria. Additional showers and storms are likely to develop between Houston and Victoria this afternoon into tonight. Additional storms are possible close to the circulation center of the upper low, which could drench the southwest side of Houston down towards Galveston later tonight.

The prospects for 5-10 inches of rain locally over flooded areas worries me and will have to watch it tonight. Safe advice tonight is if flooding is immient, do not travel. Turn around don't drown. No one died in this morning's flood, hopefully that trend holds. We want everyone to stay safe during this critical event.

I heard Hobby Airport saw 8 inches of rain in 3 hours this morning, 5.75 inches of that came down in just 75 minutes. Amazing!! Hobby has over 10 inches of rain so far as estimated by doppler radar.

Be safe everyone and turn around don't drown!!
Jim

Johnny · #45 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 1:48 pm

Thanks for your insight Jim...much appreciated.

Extremeweatherguy · #46 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:25 pm

light to moderate showers are starting to develop north of the city and are heading south. Also, a nice little storm just passed about a mile east of my area in Spring with breezy 30mph winds, dark clouds and a few raindrops. Looks like things are starting to pick up again. Get ready Houston!

#47 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:31 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:light to moderate showers are starting to develop north of the city and are heading south. Also, a nice little storm just passed about a mile east of my area in Spring with breezy 30mph winds, dark clouds and a few raindrops. Looks like things are starting to pick up again. Get ready Houston!

Hey EWG - yep - the center will be practically over you and me this evening. Looks like most of Houston will be back on the "inflow" side of the system overnight and tomorrow AM. Tonight could be a lot worse than last night.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #48 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:32 pm

Anybody think that glob of rain is going to head towards Corpus? At noon I heard one of the TV mets suggest the low wll move WSW towards the Coastal Bend and Tuesday could be nasty.

Johnny · #49 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:33 pm

After looking at the radar, we might actually see some rain up our way EWG. It looks like some decent showers are moving our way from the east.

#50 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:34 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Anybody think that glob of rain is going to head towards Corpus? At noon I heard one of the TV mets suggest the low wll move WSW towards the Coastal Bend and Tuesday could be nasty.

Most of the newer models take it further north - more towards Del Rio by Wed.

Stratosphere747 · #51 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:34 pm

Seems like there is still enough dry air to the east that keeps the storms on that side in check. If what is out in the Gulf works its way inland though, there will be some serious flooding issues.

#52 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:41 pm

jschlitz wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Anybody think that glob of rain is going to head towards Corpus? At noon I heard one of the TV mets suggest the low wll move WSW towards the Coastal Bend and Tuesday could be nasty.

Most of the newer models take it further north - more towards Del Rio by Wed.

I'm afraid we (Austin) area may be next on the hit list ... :roll:

#53 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:58 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
236 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE STILL UNDER THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS
AND ON INTO TONIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE SLOW
WESTWARD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOW CENTERED NORTH
OF THE HOUSTON AREA AND IS APPROACHING I-45. THIS IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE MODELS THAT DRIFT THIS SYSTEM TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. GREATEST FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE COAST IN BRAZORIA AND
MATAGORDA COUNTIES WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES ARE
BEING RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN THE CITIES OF MATAGORDA AND FREEPORT.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THIS IS PROBABLY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOME TIME THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD...LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. TRAINING WILL PROBABLY
SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND THAT IS WHERE 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THIS COULD ESPECIALLY BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM IF THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS AREAS THAT EARLIER TODAY RECEIVED
5 TO 11 INCHES OF RAIN. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO (ONE OF MANY) IS THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BRAZORIA AND MATAGORDA COUNTY
COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL THEN DEVELOP/EXPAND
NORTHWARD TONIGHT TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. THE 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL
FORECAST COULD END UP BEING TOO LOW...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
FORECAST UPDATES DURING THIS ONGOING SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT. THE FLOOD
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SHELBY TO MONTGOMERY TO CORRIGAN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

Johnny · #54 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:02 pm

IT looks like we COULD have a dangerous situation on our hands. Thanks for posting that up jschlitz.

#55 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:14 pm

CajunMama wrote:
southerngale wrote:That same met was on TV telling people to get off the road...they're driving down flooded streets pushing more water into homes.

That is a pet peeve of mine. Now some people may be trying to get back home but then you have those people who think they should go sight seeing. Y'all stay safe & dry now.

Its a BIG pet peeve of mine too. I remember a flood we had when I was a child; the mini-tsunamis generated my sightseers flooded our garage and scared the crap outta my poor cat.

#56 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:15 pm

No problem Johnny. Yep, could be a long night.

#57 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:21 pm

Is it me or did the HGX radar just go out??? Grrrrrrrrr. Talk about most horrible timing..........of ALL days :grrr:

Johnny · #58 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:21 pm

As the convection enters eastern Montgomery County...it seems to weaken. That might change as we go into the evening and overnight hours.

Johnny · #59 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:23 pm

I can't get it either??

Stratosphere747 · #60 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 3:23 pm

Johnny wrote:As the convection enters eastern Montgomery County...it seems to weaken. That might change as we go into the evening and overnight hours.

Still quite a bit of dry air out there...

Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

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