Convection Near Bahamas

[wzrgirl1]

local weather stations not making much of it..........calling it an upper level low and that it should stay to our east for the next few days

[CHRISTY]

Actually i was watching channel 7 a while ago and they were sayin that this feature might slowly drift west into florida and bring us atleast good rain for the weekend.so i think i just my just keep an eye on it just in case.

[wzrgirl1]

Actually i was watching channel 7 a while ago and they were sayin that this feature might slowly drift west into florida and bring us atleast good rain for the weekend.so i think i just my just keep an eye on it just in case.

like I said.........not making much of it

[Aquawind]

Perk..

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006



CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND
IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS
WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

[SouthFloridawx]

From Accuweather

Today's Discussion
Mainly Tranquil in the Tropics
Posted: 19-JUN-2006 6:26pm EDT

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

We are tracking tropical waves along 33 west south of 20 north, along 61 west south of 20 north and along 72 west south of 22 north. All waves are moving to the west at an average speed of 10-15kts or about 5 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 72 west is encountering strong shear and will not be able to organize as it moves west. The wave along 61 west is also encountering shear. However, it is a larger wave and it might survive the strongest shear. But it too will have a tough time organizing any time soon. An upper level disturbance that caused flooding rainfall in the Houston Texas area is over land. But it has caused a large area of rain and thunderstorms along the southeast Texas coast. This activity should move southwest and will not have a chance to break away and move out over the open waters of the Gulf. Another upper level system extends into the western Atlantic east of the northern Bahamas. This upper level system is enhancing clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. This complex weather system might have some chance to organize during the middle and latter part of this week as the strong shear relaxes over that region of the Atlantic. Some computer model output is suggesting there will be at least an upper level system forming. If this happens and a surface feature can form underneath we might have a developing tropical system toward the end of this week. But this is highly uncertain at this point. Anything that does organize east of the Bahamas will be steered westward by the Bermuda high. That could lead to increased unsettled weather over the northern Bahamas much of this week then over Florida by this coming weekend. So, residence and visitors to Florida and the northern Bahamas should stay informed about this area of unsettled weather east of the northern Bahamas.


http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... ccuweather

[Aquawind]

Steve Lyons mentioned the trough and a possible low forming but spent most of his time on the EPAC surfing waves..

[SouthFloridawx]

GFS showing some waves of vorticity popping up throughout the 144 hour forecast of the 18Z. Nothing really definable but, at least some beneficial rain for Florida.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[CHRISTY]

Yea guys the GFS has a 850mb vort max forming,along with a weak surface low/trough.....and also i might add the ETA ,Canadian and the Nogaps seem to be hinting at some type of development.

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006



CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 55W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A NE-SW ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 18N58W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO 73W. A SFC TROUGH IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 29N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER
HISPANIOLA POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W AND
IN THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 60W-64W TRIGGERED BY MOIST
SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS
WAVE WILL SPREAD ITS MOISTURE TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SCATTERED
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

Thanks for the info! I think the more important phrase is that a "surface trough" is located over the Bahamas...

[SouthFloridawx]

LOL I forgot to bold that ... Thanks for the info! I think the more important phrase is that a "surface trough" is located over the Bahamas... Very Happy

I corrected it above.

[rockyman]

I think if anything gets started east of Florida, it will be at the tail end of the surface trough described in the 8pm TWD...just east of West Palm Beach/Ft Lauderdale/Miami....the last visibles of the day show turning there.

[SouthFloridawx]

The surface trough is depicted on the surface analysis from the TWD graphic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[HURAKAN]

Also from 24 to 72 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[rockyman]

Pressures are slightly lower than this time yesterday at the following buoys (both now below 30.00in):

Molasses Reef:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1

Longboat Key:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1

[rockyman]

Whoaa...this can't be right (can it?)

Foots Cay (Abaco), Bahamas is reporting 1004.6 mb (29.67inches) as of 12 minutes ago!!

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... ry=bahamas


Edit: Might be a calibration problem...because it's been this low all day...THIS IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION (even though it's on WeatherUnderground)

[rockyman]

If a system formed within the next 24 hours, I don't think it would go west in the Gomex, based on low level flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[CHRISTY]

If a system formed within the next 24 hours, I don't think it would go west in the Gomex, based on low level flow:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

rockyman....My thinkin is something might try to get going in a couple of days and may begin to move NW but then pushed SW across florida as the high builds back in .what u think?

[Nimbus]

Was this area the tail end of a front? Couldn't find any buoy observations near Abaco to dispute the low report. There has not been any convection persisting in any single location for more than a few hours.

[CHRISTY]

as of the 10:30 from the NHC now we know the entire system is moving westward.lets see what happens as far as development in the future.