Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

[Johnny]

I've been away from the p.c. for a couple of hours. Are we still expecting heavy rain to fire up overnight?

[southerngale]

I've been away from the p.c. for a couple of hours. Are we still expecting heavy rain to fire up overnight?

That's what they say. This morning, NWS had us for 30% tonight, then upped it to 50%, then 60%, and just now upped it again to 70%. I wouldn't believe it by looking at radar. It looks MUCH calmer than it did this morning.

KFDM has us for 90% tonight and 80% tomorrow. I have to give them credit...their chances the past few days for last night and today were higher than NWS.

[wxmann_91]

I do not think it will be as bad as yesterday night, for Houston at least. The MCS has really shut off inflow so far, and the area has been drizzly for most of the day.

[Stratosphere747]

Would like to say that we are out of the woods...A few of the mets mentioned that if this low moved on a more SW track, it might just keep the bulk of the rain in the Gulf. For the time being it seems like it is doing just that. Though many still say as we get into the night, conditions will become optimal for a breakout of storms..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just hard to say exactly where the heavy rains will develop. The low is located near Houston. May be later than last night due to rain most of the day.

[TexasSam]

Houston NWS got brave on the rain chances:

Tonight: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low near 74. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm...

Interesting that storms are beginning to expand on the Brazoria and Matagorda coast towards the north. May just be temporary...

[Cape Verde]

It slacked off this afternoon, although I did get caught in a gully washer on the west side of Houston.

I don't see any reason to think this is over. The center of the low is still in Harris County and is only crawling to the west at a few mph.

Maybe something I don't understand will cut off the flow of moisture from the gulf, but I don't know of any reason why tomorrow should be calmer than today.

[KatDaddy]

Just in..........Houston-Galveston Forecast Discussion Update at 8:13PM

AM VERY CONCERNED BY THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS
TO HAVE GRASPED (IE...FORECAST CONDITIONS AT 00Z) THE SITUATION.
GFS PROGGING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INFLOW THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. IT HAS CORRECTLY PREDICTED
THIS PER HGX-VWP...PALESTINE PROFILER...AND LA PORTE PROFILERS. BY
06Z THE GFS PROGGING 850MB SSW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
25 KNOTS INCREASING TO A WHOPPING 45-50 KNOTS OVER LAKE
LIVINGSTON- CROCKETT REGION! COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED VERY SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE LOW- MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION WE COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MUCH MORE RAIN. THESE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT PRECIP- INTENSE RAIN RATES...3-5" PER HOUR RATES. FROM
BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COAST NORTH ACROSS HARRIS AND INTO MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND
WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING
STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH
AMOUNTS...

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
813 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE INCREASE PER VWP/OBS AND EXPECTING
TO SEE SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 1030 PM IN THE NORTHEAST
AND EASTERN ZONES.

**This is the beginning of the discussion

[george_r_1961]

Not good at all. Hope people down there have put their emergency plan in effect.

[jasons2k]

I agree, this is not good at all if the GFS is right. This is right along the I-45 corridor. That inflow is like a tropical system. wow.

[Stratosphere747]

The expansion of storms still seem to be limited just inland on the Brazoria/Matagorda coasts. One heck of a rain rate looked to occured near Sargent.

Just don't see that low moving much yet.....

[jasons2k]

It's not unfortunately. I live in southern Montgomery County and it's parked right on top of me.

[KatDaddy]

Your right on target jschlitz. This could be a very serious flood event should the GFS pan out. The dew point is currently 70F here in League City and clouds are darkening. A very tropical feel tonight. We picked up 3.99" in the last 24 hours and Clear Creek has minor flooding.

[Diva]

Just in..........Houston-Galveston Forecast Discussion Update at 8:13PM

AM VERY CONCERNED BY THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS
TO HAVE GRASPED (IE...FORECAST CONDITIONS AT 00Z) THE SITUATION.
GFS PROGGING A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INFLOW THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. IT HAS CORRECTLY PREDICTED
THIS PER HGX-VWP...PALESTINE PROFILER...AND LA PORTE PROFILERS. BY
06Z THE GFS PROGGING 850MB SSW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
25 KNOTS INCREASING TO A WHOPPING 45-50 KNOTS OVER LAKE
LIVINGSTON- CROCKETT REGION! COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED VERY SLOW
WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE LOW- MID- LEVEL CIRCULATION WE COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR MUCH MORE RAIN. THESE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT PRECIP- INTENSE RAIN RATES...3-5" PER HOUR RATES. FROM
BRAZORIA/GALVESTON COAST NORTH ACROSS HARRIS AND INTO MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND
WILL UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH SHORTLY AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING
STILL IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ISOLATED 5 TO 10 INCH
AMOUNTS...

So what does this mean for the Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange area? Does this hold with the earlier statement that Houston will get what we got last night and we'll be a little better off?

[jasons2k]

Hey Katdadday - good to see you!

I just stepped outside, and the low clouds are screaming in from the SE. They have really picked-up in speed from earlier. It actually reminds me a lot of a tropical depression. I was shocked when I went outside. These winds are what the profilers are picking-up on. Not good.

[Stratosphere747]

Hard to say Diva...

Depends on how slow this low continues to move, and in which direction. You could go to bed and wakeup at 3am to yet another heavy round of storms. Though it looks for now as if the focus has shifted to the Houston area.

[Diva]

Thanks Stratosphere747....just trying to find out if I'm going to get any sleep tonight or if I should start loading those sandbags now! LOL

Has anyone heard any reports on Bolivar today? By the looks of things they got hammered by this system too. We've got a beach house rented for this weekend. Hope it not too big a mess down there.

[TexasSam]

Hey Katdadday - good to see you!

I just stepped outside, and the low clouds are screaming in from the SE. They have really picked-up in speed from earlier. It actually reminds me a lot of a tropical depression. I was shocked when I went outside. These winds are what the profilers are picking-up on. Not good.

Sounds like my post last night:

been lightning like crazy to my NE, since midnight, and is slowly getting larger, and closer. time now 1:25am
Starting to hear a bit of distant thunder, and the low clouds are moving very fast (north) onto the storm, the clouds higher up don't seem to be moving much at all, or drifting NW