Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

[Cape Verde]

Looking at the current radar, I think the low is now centered in Colorado County, about 80 miles west of Houston.

It's dragging a ton of rain onshore even east of Houston.

It's going to be a long day.

[Starburst]

You are right a very long day and probably night. This is a strange little system isn't it. It looks as if we may be under the gun very quickly after this system fizzles according to Corpus Christi NWS

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. CAN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER
BUT POINTS TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ATTM DRIFTING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND MOVING
INTO THE COASTAL BEND BY MONDAY. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[jasons2k]

Isn't Beeville close to the Middle Texas Coast? I thought it was NW of Corpus...

Anyway, yep, the AFD from Houston doesn't sound good for this weekend/next week either:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT TO LOOK OVER THIS MORNING SO RUNNING BEHIND WITH THIS
DISCUSSION. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HVY
RAINS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST/WEAKEN THESE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS REMAIN
HIGH AS THE CORE SLOWLY SHIFTS WWD. HAVE REDRAWN/REISSUED THE FFA
TO DROP A COUPLE COUNTIES EAST...THEN PICKING UP SOME OVER THE W.
SOME HEATING LATER TODAY COULD GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG TSRA THIS
AFTN AS THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX REMAINS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE/UNCAP-
PED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND AND
/OR MESO TYPE INFLUENCES PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACT-
IVITY. BEYOND TODAY WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWISH CHC POPS IN FOR WEDS/
THURS AS LINGERING MOISTURE HELPS ISOLATED PCPN DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM POPS BY FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALOFT. BUT THE BRIEF RESPITE COULD ALSO BE BRIEF
AS MODELS INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SEVERAL
FEATURES/CHANGES IN THE PATTERN. RIDGE PROGGED TO CONTINUE BUILD-
ING WEST AS A BROAD WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION. A SHEAR AXIS THEN FORMS NW OF THE CWFA ON SAT WHICH
SLOWLY SINKS SE TO THE COASTLINE AROUND SUN NIGHT. FROM THE OTHER
DIRECTION AN ELY WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF
TOWARD US. THIS GENERAL TROFFINESS COULD ALSO HELP PUSH A "FRONT"
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE BACKDOOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT HOLDING A
WHOLE LOT OF FAITH IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE ATTM.

[Portastorm]

Looks like we're getting in on the action ... light rains have fallen last few hours here in Austin and we're under a Flash Flood Watch.

I dunno. Seems like the southern and eastern quadrants of this low get hit the hardest and we're on the northern side ... so maybe it won't be so bad.

Hope my neighbors to the southeast are staying safe today!

[southerngale]

Shouldn't it be about over, over here? It is POURING. I wish I knew the rain rate, but none of the Weathernet stations near me are working. It's raining big cats and dogs though and the thunder is so loud, I thought it was gonna shake my house right off its foundation.

With the ground sooo saturated from the last few days, I hope this heavy stuff doesn't last very long. My yard looks like a lake.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I think we are going to be in for some serious rain later today. Awfully gloomy looking towards the north and no wind and real humid right now. Just right for a pounding.

[Cape Verde]

The stuff streaming in the from Gulf is going to be a problem.

http://tinyurl.com/ld2q3

[southerngale]

This is what NWS Lake Charles said about the low, although this is several hours old.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS NOT MADE AS MUCH PROGRESS
SOUTH-WESTWARD AS WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY MORNING. AT 1 AM IT WAS
STILL OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. IT IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE...RATHER THAN THE LOWER...TEXAS COAST AT
SUNSET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

[Portastorm]

I think we are going to be in for some serious rain later today. Awfully gloomy looking towards the north and no wind and real humid right now. Just right for a pounding.

Yeah CC, they're getting slammed just up the coast from you (Matagorda). NWS is reporting isolated amounts as high as 15 inches. Wow!!

This is what Austin/San Antonio NWS said in their morning discussion:

AM
EXPECTED CORE TYPE RAINS TONIGHT BUT LOCATION UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME DUE TO ALL MODELS DIFFERING ON LOCATION OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
LOW CENTERS. EITHER WAY, THE TROPICAL TAP WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOWS ARE SHEARED
APART AND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE REMAINS.

[Stratosphere747]

This has to be giving the mets fits. I keep seeing a spin down by Wharton, which would allow storms to continue to run up through areas east of 288 and even up towards Beaumont.

Don't even want to think about that little blob east of Florida heading this way....

[Portastorm]

Yup Strat ... when the models provide different solutions I guess the mets have to go with what they're seeing. For days it seems like the models progged this low to drift west and get sheared apart ... but it certainly isn't doing that to any great degree.

This is a tough pattern to predict and our pro mets are earning their pay and then some this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

---erased---

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the rain is on the brink of pushinb back into the Pasadena/Hobby area.

[Diva]

So, southerngale, it's coming down hard in Beaumont? No rain yet here in Orange, thank goodness, but I'm trying to get to Beaumont today. Think I'll go through PA as to avoid I-10 construction. Just wondering what to expect when I get to Parkdale.

[Cape Verde]

Beaumont is getting pounded as hard as any place this morning. The storms are training from the Gulf and seem to be never-ending.

Orange is in a gap between that and a similar feature east of the Sabine.

[southerngale]

Yeah Diva...it's been raining for hours, really heavy some of the time. I don't know if it will still be raining when you get here, but it's definitely been raining a lot in the Parkdale area.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.UPDATE...
THE KHGX 88D HAD BEEN DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB ON STORM TOTAL PRECIP
FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT. YESTERDAY'S 8 TO 11 INCH BULLSEYE IN
SOUTHEAST HOUSTON SHOWS UP NICELY ON THE STP AS WELL AS THIS MORNING'S
15 INCH RAINFALL TOTAL FROM ONE OF OUR COOP OBSERVERS IN MATAGORDA
(SEE RTPHGX). CURRENTLY WATCHING AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
IN EASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY WHERE AROUND 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES WERE OCCURRING. THE CLUSTER ACROSS THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING WHILE ACTIVITY IN MATAGORDA BAY IS HOLDING
TOGETHER. IN THIS PATTERN...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
FUTURE HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR AS WE WATCH A NUMBER OF STORM
CLUSTERS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. ALSO...ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WILL STICK WITH OUR CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE DUE TO TRAINING OR SLOW MOVING/STATIONARY STORMS.
BUT IN GENERAL...ANTICIPATE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TO PROBABLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST LIKELY DECREASE TONIGHT.
BUT BEFORE THIS DECREASE ACTUALLY OCCURS AND WITH THE SLOW MOVING MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL IN OUR AREA...WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH GOING AS PLANNED UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. 42/35

[jabman98]

Sounds like things are really confusing. Is the center of the low still visible anywhere? Or has it all kind of dissipated into a giant low area?

Near downtown Houston - we just finished getting our first rain shower of the day. Overnight only 0.10 of an inch. Which is a good thing, since we've got standing sewage in the backyard from a broken sewer main line. Yikes.

What do our more experienced folks think is going to happen for Houston today?

[teal61]

[quote="jabman98"]Sounds like things are really confusing. Is the center of the low still visible anywhere? Or has it all kind of dissipated into a giant low area?

I've been looking for it and the best I could come up with is down near Freeport - Matagorda area. If that is it, it's getting awfully close to the Gulf. I wouldn't bet on it though.

[jasons2k]

There seems to be a lot of meso-lows/vortices cought-up in the main circulation, but the "main low" appears to be centered over Colorado county.

I'm concerned about later today because the convection off of Galveston is decreasing. This convection, which persisted most of yesterday and last night, cut off most of the inflow into the Houston area. However, as it dissipates, the inflow can resume and transport more unstable air back over Houston. This + any heating = more storms.