Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[ROCK]

Keep them coming EWG, good stuff from JB as always. I would agree with the FL scenario. I am thinking consolidation further north and then the track NE into FL. We wait and see where the LLC developes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest post from JB says that the next pulse of tropical activity (development) should come toward the end of next week onward, and that it will be WEST of the current pulse.

My take from this: It seems like JB is still expecting a storm in the western Gulf within the next few weeks. In his landfall zone forecast, he has TX in the #3 spot for most landfalling storm effects this season. Based on this, I would say that TX and west LA could be potential targets for the next round.

[T-man]

Gee, I hope he's wrong. Or any thing that spins up is of little consequence. I'm getting my new floor put in during that time period, don't want any high wadda

[cajungal]

Here is what JB from accuweather thinks will happen with invest 90L:

He says that everything is in line for development of this system starting Sunday (once away from the Yucatan). He says after development, we will probably see it meander with an uncertain path (and we could be dealing with this even a week from now). In the end, his two potential paths are toward Florida or toward the western Gulf (depending on where the low emerges from the Yucatan and it's speed). He says that if it moves into the western Gulf, there is a chance of stronger development than if it moved east. He also hints in his post that there may be another storm threat around June 20th.

Well, I hope he is wrong on that one considering my birthday is June 25th and I have outdoor plans that day.

[flightpath]

Gee, I hope he's wrong. Or any thing that spins up is of little consequence. I'm getting my new floor put in during that time period, don't want any high wadda

hold off on the flooring just to be safe

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope he ends up wrong this time too, but considering how well he did with our current system (predicting it weeks in advance), he just may be right this time as well. Hopefully the hard hit areas of last year will be spared!

[T-man]

Maybe I'll get the ceramic tilework done first. Wassup dude!

[gboudx]

Maybe I'll get the ceramic tilework done first. Wassup dude!

Did you flood for Rita? My in-laws house did. 8 inches.

[T-man]

Yes, I flooded, just enough to ruin my flooring and carpets. Many others nearby lost much more than that- I was fortunately high enough (elevation wise) to keep the drywall dry. Unfortunately my workshop is lower than the house- I had 20 inches inside, and lost thousands of dollars worth of tools and materials. Now whats this I hear about JB sayin' it might sit and spin all week? Did I dream that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just read JB's latest post and it says that he thinks the three Atlantic waves will be fuel for the "gulf pulse" over the next two weeks. He also said he would be surprised if no development came from this.

Now this does not mean he thinks that these waves will directly become a storm, but it does mean that he is thinking that "something" (likely with help from these waves) will spin up in the Gulf before the end of the month. He also thinks it will be further west than with the last system.

[jlauderdal]

Just read JB's latest post and it says that he thinks the three Atlantic waves will be fuel for the "gulf pulse" over the next two weeks. He also said he would be surprised if no development came from this.

Now this does not mean he thinks that these waves will directly become a storm, but it does mean that he is thinking that "something" (likely with help from these waves) will spin up in the Gulf before the end of the month. He also thinks it will be further west than with the last system.

cool, he has three shots to get it right

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB continues to mention the period of June 20th - early July as a possible risk period for the Gulf. He has really been targeting this time frame for awhile now, so I will be watching for sure.


June 20th = Next Tuesday

[gatorcane]

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

From tonight's post, he says:

- The Indian monsoon is about 10 days early, which means that the Atlantic wave train will be more active than normal.

-Over the next three weeks expect 2 distinct problem periods.

-The first will be the Gulf after June 10th. This is due to a trof that will lift out and split a piece back into the Gulf and increased moisture ("muddling") from the Caribbean.

-He feels that the Gulf threat will be further west rather than further east.

-Another issue may be a trough that is expected to come through and leave late next week.

-We also need to watch the piling of energy on the wave train. He says that the path of the waves is generally too far south currently, but once they start tracking further north...they "may" have a chance to rapidly develop.


This is what I am getting out of this post: The Gulf will really be heating up over the next few weeks, and the western Gulf is favored. As we head 10-20 days down the road we may see yet more Gulf threats and possible Caribbean threats. It seems to me that JB is thinking that we will see a storm before the month is out.

Hard to believe he didn't mention Florida or maybe you are only highlighting when he mentions anything in or near your area....

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

From tonight's post, he says:

- The Indian monsoon is about 10 days early, which means that the Atlantic wave train will be more active than normal.

-Over the next three weeks expect 2 distinct problem periods.

-The first will be the Gulf after June 10th. This is due to a trof that will lift out and split a piece back into the Gulf and increased moisture ("muddling") from the Caribbean.

-He feels that the Gulf threat will be further west rather than further east.

-Another issue may be a trough that is expected to come through and leave late next week.

-We also need to watch the piling of energy on the wave train. He says that the path of the waves is generally too far south currently, but once they start tracking further north...they "may" have a chance to rapidly develop.


This is what I am getting out of this post: The Gulf will really be heating up over the next few weeks, and the western Gulf is favored. As we head 10-20 days down the road we may see yet more Gulf threats and possible Caribbean threats. It seems to me that JB is thinking that we will see a storm before the month is out.

Hard to believe he didn't mention Florida or maybe you are only highlighting when he mentions anything in or near your area....

No, he didn't mention Florida. During this point (June 6th was when this post was made) he still thought that whatever would develop would move over the Yucatan and into the BOC. He was wrong there, but then again he was also the only met I know of to call for the possibility of a storm forming in the NW Carrib. over 5 days out (In fact, he mentioned the possibility as far back as May). He did change his tune and mention FL after this became a depression further east and it became apparent that it was not move into the BOC. Overall, he was very successful with Alberto.

[canegrl04]

I don't know if the weather models have picked up on a tropical system headed forTexas already or not,but Thursday of next week to Sunday,our local forecast has a 60% chance of rain for that period.I'm here in North Texas

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks the wave near 60W will end up in the Gulf by late week and could possibly develop. He says, however, that there is a slight chance it may get stuck in the Atlantic and never make it to the Gulf, but he says his gut feeling is that it will take a more southern route.

[stpeteweathergal]

A lot of talk on the forum this morning about Florida getting some activity starting about 3 days from now...any update from JB about this?

[Extremeweatherguy]

A lot of talk on the forum this morning about Florida getting some activity starting about 3 days from now...any update from JB about this?

He didn't say much about FL this morning, but he did say that he is concerned about a wave that should be in the SE Gulf by the weekend.

[Johnny]

So JB isn't concerned about that wave southeast of Florida?

Any updates from JB this morning?

[Portastorm]

So JB isn't concerned about that wave southeast of Florida?

Any updates from JB this morning?

Yeah, he is still monitoring that area as well as the vigorous wave in the Caribbean islands. He generally believes we're on the edge of a tropical "ramp up" from the SE Coast west through the Gulf.