Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

[jabman98]

I'm concerned about later today because the convection off of Galveston is decreasing. This convection, which persisted most of yesterday and last night, cut off most of the inflow into the Houston area. However, as it dissipates, the inflow can resume and transport more unstable air back over Houston. This + any heating = more storms.

Would that be in the form of afternoon thunderstorms? I'm less concerned about those than the training we experienced on Sunday night/Monday morning. But if the storms are widespread and associated around an area with the low, they could form a similar train-like effect I guess.

It's just that usually thunderstorms cause less flooding than what we've just had. But not always, of course. And the ground is pretty saturated.

[jasons2k]

yes, they would be mostly thunderstorms. But if they form into a band(s) and train, then look out. They can produce just as much or more rain than non-thunderstorms. The absence or presence of lighthing itself has little bearing on rainfall totals. It depends more on how much precipitable water is in place (how moist the atmosphere is) and how long the dynamics/instability persists over the same area.

[Portastorm]

Interesting mid morning update from AUS-SAT NWS office ... talk of limited inflow and potential breaking down of coastal convection could mean more rain for inland areas:

MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS AT THE COAST HAVE SO FAR CUT INFLOW AND LIMITED RAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER EXPECT AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, RAINS AT THE COAST WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

[jabman98]

Seems like it's clearing here. It's still gray, but it's brightening. And the radar looks like most of the storms are moving away.

[Yankeegirl]

It was clearing here, but its getting dark all over again... So am guessing that wea re not done with the rain?

[Johnny]

No, I don't think we are done with the rain but I also don't think it will be as widespread as the last two days. The fact is that we have a very unstable tropical airmass over the top of us with no CAP in place. After looking over visible satellite, we do have a good amount of cloud breaks over the area. That will only increase the instability. If storms do start to pop, I don't see any training being involved but instead slow moving thunderstorms. If these thunderstorms form in areas that have been hard hit already, then flooding will be a concern of course. Then again, their is still a possibility of training storms but IMO if storms to break out they will be scattered. I could be wrong though.

[Yankeegirl]

It sunny here... in Katy

[Johnny]

Lots of sun here in The Woodlands also. I think we will see some decent coverage later this afternoon with the amount of sun breaking through across the area.

[HouTXmetro]

Lots of sun here in The Woodlands also. I think we will see some decent coverage later this afternoon with the amount of sun breaking through across the area.

It's outright hot and sticky outside. My skin could not breath!!

[Yankeegirl]

It is really muggy outside... Feels like you are walking into pea soup... Yuck!! Its almost like a sauna!!

[southerngale]

I hope it's over. We're drenched over here after all the rain the past 4 days. Time for some drying out time, so we can mow that grass and clean up those yards. I still find it amazing that we went from major drought to major surplus in a few short weeks. That's Southeast Texas weather for ya!

[jasons2k]

As it warms this afternoon, we really need to watch the storms and outflow now pushing north out of Brazoria and Galveston counties. When the outflow hits the air heating-up now over Houston we should see redevelopment.

[Johnny]

Yep, they are starting to make a trek towards the north. Southwest, Houston is now starting to get some rain.

http://www.khou.com/images/weather/dop320_a.gif

[PTrackerLA]

I hope it's over. We're drenched over here after all the rain the past 4 days. Time for some drying out time, so we can mow that grass and clean up those yards. I still find it amazing that we went from major drought to major surplus in a few short weeks. That's Southeast Texas weather for ya!

Actually, you're airport is still showing a 9" rainfall deficit for the year even after all that rain. We have a nearly 12" deficit here in Lafayette. Just goes to show you how extremely dry this year has been aside from the few heavy rain events. The drought is certainly not over but you can't make up all of that deficit in a few days either because flooding will occur.

[jabman98]

Actually, you're airport is still showing a 9" rainfall deficit for the year even after all that rain. We have a nearly 12" deficit here in Lafayette. Just goes to show you how extremely dry this year has been aside from the few heavy rain events. The drought is certainly not over but you can't make up all of that deficit in a few days either because flooding will occur.

Yeah, as I heard yesterday, a lot of the rains weren't inland enough to make up some of the deficit.

We just had a shower here (near downtown), but it seems to have moved out. I can handle that kind of intermittent shower. Don't need heavy rains though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just got a brief period of heavy rain.

[Yankeegirl]

Any more for later on tonight?

[Johnny]

After reading the latest discussion, rain chances are on the decrease from here on out.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL COVERAGE SO FAR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO SARGENT
TO LAKE JACKSON. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THE HOUSTON AREA RIGHT NOW (19Z-20Z)...BUT THEIR RAPID MOVEMENT
IS RESULTING IN LOW RAINFALL TOTALS AND NO FLOOD THREAT. BASED ON THE
MODELS WHICH HAVE THE BULK OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVING TO THE WEST AND
OUT OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...OUR ONLY CONCERN IS COASTAL MATAGORDA
COUNTY AREAS WHERE THE MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. WITH
JUST THIS SMALL AREA TO WORRY ABOUT...WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE
AT 21Z. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS THIS STORM COMPLEX
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...EXPECT US TO GET INTO OUR MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF MAINLY
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO
CONTINUE ON INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
OUR WEST. WILL STICK WITH A 20% TO 30% POPS RANGE FOR NOW.

[southerngale]

I hope it's over. We're drenched over here after all the rain the past 4 days. Time for some drying out time, so we can mow that grass and clean up those yards. I still find it amazing that we went from major drought to major surplus in a few short weeks. That's Southeast Texas weather for ya!

Actually, you're airport is still showing a 9" rainfall deficit for the year even after all that rain. We have a nearly 12" deficit here in Lafayette. Just goes to show you how extremely dry this year has been aside from the few heavy rain events. The drought is certainly not over but you can't make up all of that deficit in a few days either because flooding will occur.

Then maybe the airport has a deficit or it's an error, but the drought here is over. I remember hearing our deficit at x amount of inches and we wiped that out with the flooding that occurred around Memorial Day. One night and it was gone, so I really don't understand why the airport shows that. We have received A LOT of rain in the past month, with 2 storm systems. The first one around Memorial Day or the first of June (I'd have to look back for which day/night all the flooding occurred) and the last one this past weekend into Monday and this morning, where the whole area received a lot of rain, some of the area flooding badly.

You've got me curious now...I'll have to ask Greg (greg_kfdm_tv here) about it. Btw, he's personally received 26" of rain since Memorial Day, plus anything else he may have received last night and this morning.

[Johnny]

EWG, you must be talking about the storm currently just west of I-45 north in The Woodlands area. I've been watching it out my window for the past 15 minutes. It sounds like you aren't all that far from where I am. My office is a mile north of Rayford on the northbound side of I-45.