Convection Near Bahamas

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wxman57
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#161 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:31 pm

I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.
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#162 Postby AJC3 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.


From what I can tell, the 18Z NGP is a little less gung ho with lowering surface pressures, but still showed a very wet system pushing westward into FL. I'm curious Chris, the SLP panels from the 12Z CNDN that I saw (meteocentre.com) appeared to take a 1012-ish surface low westward across FL instead of northward.

The only guidance I saw taking a trough or low northward (and into the heart of what should be a strengthening H50 ridge) is the 18Z NAM/DGEX, which looks spuriously too strong in spinning up the surface low.

The desert that used to be my backyard is rooting for a NGP-like solution.
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#163 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 7:14 pm

AJC3 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I would agree that the disturbance east of the Bahamas may have a slight chance of development in 3-4 days once the upper low to its southwest weakens and moves out of the picture. That is, of course, if there is anything left in the way of thunderstorms by then. The GFS and ECMWF take a trof axis westward into NE FL or GA on Sunday. NOGAPS is a bit more agressive, taking a closed low across the northern FL Peninsula and into the NE Gulf toward SE LA. The 12Z Canadian develops a stronger low farther east and takes it northward out to sea.

Again, development chances appear to be low, maybe 10-15%. It's just something to keep an eye on later this week. And chances of significant development (strong TS or hurricane) appear to be very low.


From what I can tell, the 18Z NGP is a little less gung ho with lowering surface pressures, but still showed a very wet system pushing westward into FL. I'm curious Chris, the SLP panels from the 12Z CNDN that I saw (meteocentre.com) appeared to take a 1012-ish surface low westward across FL instead of northward.

The only guidance I saw taking a trough or low northward (and into the heart of what should be a strengthening H50 ridge) is the 18Z NAM/DGEX, which looks spuriously too strong in spinning up the surface low.

The desert that used to be my backyard is rooting for a NGP-like solution.


Yep, you're right about the Canadian. I must have looked at something else and thought I remembered the Canadian taking it north. Just took a look at it again and it agrees with the EC and GFS in taking a weak wave west to northern FL.
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#164 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:03 pm

FWIW, Freeport now reporting south winds:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78062.html
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#165 Postby rockyman » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:07 pm

Could a center possibly be near this buoy? The winds have been going crazy since about 1pm (N, WNW, SSW, NE, WSW)...before that the winds were consistently from the E or ESE or ENE.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
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#166 Postby AJC3 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:13 pm

Wouldn't get excited about it. Those wind reports are about 5 knots, within a few miles of each other, and there are showers around Grand Bahama Is. Mesoscale outflow boundaries from the shower activity would be the most likely explanation for the variablility in direction. You'll likely see these winds go back to east this evening, assuming the convection wanes.
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#167 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jun 20, 2006 8:13 pm

One thing I wonder, could the TW now in the NE Carib. add moisture and energy? The ULL over S. FL could pull this TW and alot of its moisture northward.
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#168 Postby boca » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:31 pm

The ULL over S FL is ripping the system apart and pushing it ENE into the Atlantic so much for rain. Drought city for S FL.
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#169 Postby wzrgirl1 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:34 pm

don't worry.........we will get our share of rain this season........so much so that we will be complaining about it believe me
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#170 Postby boca » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:37 pm

June is our rainiest month. rainfall for June is 9' so far .20 for the month and its the 20th.
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#171 Postby spinfan4eva » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:42 pm

1030 TWO getting a littile more bullish on the system in the Bahamas:

530 outlook
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM.


1030 outlook
THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.


So there may be some development now just not significant--weak TD maybe??
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#172 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:46 pm

Boca this is from the discussion at accuwx...

We continue to moditor the area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms located over the northern Bahamas and to the northeast of the northern most Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weakening upper level trough that is generally between 70 west and 75 west. This upper level trough will break up into two parts. The northern most part will lift out to the northeast leaving the southern most part behind just northeast of Grand Bahama within the next 36 hours. When upper level troughs go through this splitting process the southern most part tends to become an upper level low. This feature will be sitting over warm water for the next few days and it might aquire tropical characteristics by the end of the week or during this coming weekend. The wind flow in the lower 10,000 feet is generally from the east and northeast. We refer to this as the steering flow for weak systems. So, based on this we expect this feature to eventually move westward toward Florida. Nearly all global computer models are showing some kind of weak feature forming in this general area and drifing into Florida this weekend. We can't tell for sure at this point whether this system will become an organized tropical system or remain a disorganized area of clouds and stormy weather. Either way it should bring the northern Bahamas unsetteld weather for the rest of this week and could bring Florida wet and perhaps stormy weather this weekend.
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#173 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:55 pm

Here's a GARP plot from 00Z. As you can see, pressures in the area are 1018-1020mb and absolutely no evidence of any cyclonic winds. Just high pressure at the surface.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif
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#174 Postby Tampa_God » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:07 pm

I don't know, one part of me is telling me this will form into something, but another part is saying heck no to development. Conditions now look unfavorable, but it looks like it will clear up by late week and maybe something forming. If it does form, maybe a west to WNW movement towards FL and into the Gulf. redevelopment after that. But this is just a guess, since nothing has formed.
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#175 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:10 pm

Tampa_God wrote:I don't know, one part of me is telling me this will form into something, but another part is saying heck no to development. Conditions now look unfavorable, but it looks like it will clear up by late week and maybe something forming. If it does form, maybe a west to WNW movement towards FL and into the Gulf. redevelopment after that. But this is just a guess, since nothing has formed.


Sounds reasonable. Big question is whether anything will be left of it by the time the shear dies out Friday or Saturday.
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#176 Postby SCMedic » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:25 pm

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#177 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:33 pm

SCMedic wrote:http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/community_blog.asp?webcaster=community


interesting stuff from accuweather....
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#178 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:38 pm

There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE

Image
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#179 Postby spinfan4eva » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:50 pm

CHRISTY wrote:There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE



By the looks of that satellite, we may very well see tomorrows 530AM TWO read

"Development if any will be slow to occur" :eek:
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#180 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 20, 2006 11:08 pm

spinfan4eva wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:There is a small flare up now closer were to me LLC might develope in the coming days....SEE



By the looks of that satellite, we may very well see tomorrows 530AM TWO read

"Development if any will be slow to occur" :eek:


You "may" be right.
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