Convection Near Bahamas
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- Evil Jeremy
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HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Storms are only named invests when they have a good chance at developing. This system according to the NHC doesn't have favorable conditions for development. Though in my opinion the conditions are getting better.
That's most of the time, because many of the invests in the WPAC have little or no chance at developing and they are upgraded to invests. In the Atlantic the rule is more strict, usually when an invest is issued the system has a really good shot at developing.
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Evil Jeremy I think you should explain your thinking on why it won't move north.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Evil Jeremy
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Rainband wrote:If it sits there long enough that scenario may take place.Evil Jeremy wrote:i dont think its moving north any time soon!
i think thats going to happen, regardless of if it developes.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Wed Jun 21, 2006 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- skysummit
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It could still move north a bit though. There's still a weakness just north of it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
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- DESTRUCTION5
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skysummit wrote:It could still move north a bit though. There's still a weakness just north of it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF
Its scheduled to fill in pretty good though...
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Even though there appears to be a weakness to the north of the system, the steering currents in this "gap" are virtually non-existent...I think this system would simply stall, instead of moving NE....also, if you look on the north side of the highs, you see there is no longer a "dip" between the 2 highs, just a nice smooth curve...the trough is gone for now.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- terstorm1012
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Interesting discussion from my local NWS office (local being State College): http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51
While MT Holly (Philadelphia) doesnt mention this, Sterling VA does: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AT 00Z TRY TO
DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRING IT THRU THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SERN US FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES PREDICTABLY ARE MORE
WASHED OUT LOOKING...BUT AGREE IN BRINGING AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY
LOW SFC PRESSURES INTO THE SERN US BY WEEK`S END. HARD TO FIND ITS
PRECURSOR ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IF IT ENDS UP BEING
REAL..IT COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AS IT GETS DRAGGED
UP AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
While MT Holly (Philadelphia) doesnt mention this, Sterling VA does: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51
THERE ALSO IS A QUESTION ON WHETHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WITH A FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN THIS WEEKEND, THIS WILL ADD AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE
MAY NEED TO PARTICULARLY WATCH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES SITUATED THERE AND CELLS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
Last edited by terstorm1012 on Wed Jun 21, 2006 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- The Hurricaner
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- wxman57
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Here's a new surface plot with satellite. Pressures across the Bahamas and to the northeast have increased by 2-3 millibars since 12Z. Pressures rising do not equal low developing. Just a couple of clusters of storms for now. As Derek mentioned, shear may be increasing tonight/tomorrow morning. I think there's a good chance that there may be a weak surface trof develop by Friday that would drift toward NE FL and GA, possibly bringing them some thunderstorms over the weekend. Chances of any tropical development are low, but not nonexistent (maybe 10-15%). Chances of significant development (strong TS/hurricane) are VERY low.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas.gif
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It does look the latest satellite images it's trying to get better organized this afternoon, in the upper and mid-levels anyway. Notice it's starting to fan out on the north side. Perhaps an implication that an anticyclone is forming over southern cluster of storms.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Jun 21, 2006 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- wxman57
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Thunder44 wrote:It does look the latest satellite images it's trying to get better organized this afternoon, in the upper and mid-levels anyway. Notice it's starting to fan out on the north side. Perhaps an implication that an anticyclone is forming over southern cluster of storms.
Satellite images can be deceiving. Surface pressures are rising in the area, not falling.
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- Hurricanebob
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Re: Convection near the Bahamas
boca wrote:I didn't see a thread started on this one about 250 miles east of the northern bahamas. It could be an ULL forming in that area, but which direction will it move.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
Oops, I didn't see this post. I thought the same thing... models have "it" moving into Florida or Ga...
bob
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