6-21-2006
The trough reminds off the east coast...With its axis centered at 75 west. (1+)With a second shear axis(Reinforcement trough) just off the eastern sea board north of 30 north/78 to 85 west. Ull which was east of key west yesterday has moved to 26 north/75 west. Which is helping to form deep convection to its east and northeast. (1+)A trough is pushing southeastward from off the east coast pushing higher clouds off to the east of the distrabance.. Over the northern side. The Ull over the central to eastern Atlantic has shifted to 42 west from 40 west yesterday. In is at 34 north today.
A upper level high pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean. Which is centered at 12 north/78 west. With 5 to 10 knot shear over the area of high pressure. North of this upper high is shear from the ULL at 26/75. The tutt over the central Atlatnic moves from the ULL at 34 north/42 west. Into another max at 25 north/60 west...An again at 15/41. The backside of this ULL has strong upper level sehar north of 12 north from 60 to 40 west.
Across the buttom side of the ULL at 26/75 is strong upper level shear max moving across the caribbean. While the gulf of Mexico is fairly faverable with lower then 20 knot shear. With a area of 5 to 10 knot shear over the central to western Part.
Dry air has formed over the Gulf of Mexico...Which is very unfaverable today. But on the other hand the caribbean with that upper level high has become much more moist. In fact I would keep a close eye on that area between 10 to 15 north/72 to 80 west. As there very will could be slow development. The central Atlatnic from 20 to 40 west north of 10 has become very unfaverable with strong upper level shear/dry air. No development even looks possible.
Strong SAL has developed north of 10 north west of 50. While the rest of the Atlatnic reminds below normal for the SAL.
So the two area's of interest are the southwestern caribbean. And the system at 26/72/73. Which has deep convection as of this time.
1# The system over the Caribbean has a upper level ridge...With one wave that has moved into the area. With the southern end of the second one about ready...If not already being sucked into this system. The upper levels and moisture is there for some development. So I would watch for it. But it might be more likely for the eastern pacific.
2# Convection/distrabance east of the ULL at 26/75. This system I would watch for the devleopment of a LLC/MLC at 72/73 west. What is causing this is the energy of the northern side of the wave that moved through the caribbean is being trasported into the eastern/right quad of the ULL. Which has been known to form cyclones like tropical storm Bill/Fay/Grace/ and many others. The fact that there is deep convection poping like I'v said for the last few days would happen. I say that there is a possible like system...Also to note is hurricane Alex...Yes Alex i'v got video of it so just got watching. So I would expect some development of this for the next 12 hours. The thing that might hurt it is a second wave coming down from the north. So this is likely to be a elongated like system if it doe's form.
So this is all for today...
matts tropical weather thinking
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wayoutfront
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-22-2006
The TUTT strengthen over the central Atlatnic 25 north/50 west northeastward to the upper ULL at 34 north/46 west. Which has been moving westward for the last 3 days. Strong westly shear is coming off the right front quad/side of this trough/tutt. Which is covering a large part of the central into the Eastern Atlatnic. A large area of 50 knot shear has developed from 20 north/58 west down to 15 north/40 west. With lower shear...Which maybe more faverable for development below 10 north.
The water vapor shows the western Atlantic upper low at 27 north/73 west. Which has formed a shear zone over the caribbean At 20 north across the caribbean...The upper ridge we where watching yesterday has moved over central America centered near 82 west. Strong upper level shear is flowing off the eastern side of the upper low at 70 west/20 to 28 north. On the northern side is yet another weak shot of energy at 30 north/75 west...Upper level shear has decreased over the ULL...Which is expected because a ULL has a area of lower shear near its center. Everything to the east or south of the ULL shear has increase by about 10 to 20 knots. The southern part of the gulf into western Cuba has increases of 20 knots this morning. With 30 knot increases off the back side of the big ull over the central Atlatnic near 60 west/30 north. As the tutt moves westward a area at 30 to 35 west south of 25 north has become slightly more faverable. With 10 knot decreases of wind shear.
Most of the caribbean reminds moist but under great shear. Gulf of Mexico north of 20 under dry air. But south into the BOC with faverable moisture this morning. East of 40 to the cape verdes south of 25 north dry air is in place.
Sal
A strong SAL has reminded over the eastern Atlantic north of 10 north to 50 west...Which looks to have moderated since yesterday some. Most of the rest of the Atlatnic has just small area's. Which should not slow development down.
There is a large Anti-cyclone over Ga/Sc(90 to 70 west) which appears to have started to catch the ULL at 27/73. Which has stoped it from moving eastward. Over the next few days this Anti-cyclone could build even stronger over ULL-low pressure area pushing it back westward. A trough/frontal system is at 95 west. Which should move south of the Anti-cyclone by 72 hours. It might even push the Anti-cyclone southwestward to force the ull/possible system back to the west. This area could slowly develop down to the surface over the next 24 to 36 hours. The nhc has noted this morning that this area has become better organized...On latest satellite it shows that the convection has become less intense over the last 3 hours. But there also seems to be a MLC and based on the cloud pattern maybe a very weak LLC under the ULL. Which is fairly normal for a system developing under a ULL. Over the next 24 hours the upper level winds should become more faverable under the Anticyclone. And things should become more faverable for development of a cyclone. The thing that may slow it down is dry air off to the west of the system. But I give this at least a chance at developing.
So pretty much do not expect any other area's to have much of a chance over the next 24 to 36 hours. I also expect slow development into a possible tropical storm with that system at 26/73. With a westward then possible landfall on northern Florida or GA around 84 to 96 hours. I'm not saying that its has a good chance but it is the best chance we got.
The TUTT strengthen over the central Atlatnic 25 north/50 west northeastward to the upper ULL at 34 north/46 west. Which has been moving westward for the last 3 days. Strong westly shear is coming off the right front quad/side of this trough/tutt. Which is covering a large part of the central into the Eastern Atlatnic. A large area of 50 knot shear has developed from 20 north/58 west down to 15 north/40 west. With lower shear...Which maybe more faverable for development below 10 north.
The water vapor shows the western Atlantic upper low at 27 north/73 west. Which has formed a shear zone over the caribbean At 20 north across the caribbean...The upper ridge we where watching yesterday has moved over central America centered near 82 west. Strong upper level shear is flowing off the eastern side of the upper low at 70 west/20 to 28 north. On the northern side is yet another weak shot of energy at 30 north/75 west...Upper level shear has decreased over the ULL...Which is expected because a ULL has a area of lower shear near its center. Everything to the east or south of the ULL shear has increase by about 10 to 20 knots. The southern part of the gulf into western Cuba has increases of 20 knots this morning. With 30 knot increases off the back side of the big ull over the central Atlatnic near 60 west/30 north. As the tutt moves westward a area at 30 to 35 west south of 25 north has become slightly more faverable. With 10 knot decreases of wind shear.
Most of the caribbean reminds moist but under great shear. Gulf of Mexico north of 20 under dry air. But south into the BOC with faverable moisture this morning. East of 40 to the cape verdes south of 25 north dry air is in place.
Sal
A strong SAL has reminded over the eastern Atlantic north of 10 north to 50 west...Which looks to have moderated since yesterday some. Most of the rest of the Atlatnic has just small area's. Which should not slow development down.
There is a large Anti-cyclone over Ga/Sc(90 to 70 west) which appears to have started to catch the ULL at 27/73. Which has stoped it from moving eastward. Over the next few days this Anti-cyclone could build even stronger over ULL-low pressure area pushing it back westward. A trough/frontal system is at 95 west. Which should move south of the Anti-cyclone by 72 hours. It might even push the Anti-cyclone southwestward to force the ull/possible system back to the west. This area could slowly develop down to the surface over the next 24 to 36 hours. The nhc has noted this morning that this area has become better organized...On latest satellite it shows that the convection has become less intense over the last 3 hours. But there also seems to be a MLC and based on the cloud pattern maybe a very weak LLC under the ULL. Which is fairly normal for a system developing under a ULL. Over the next 24 hours the upper level winds should become more faverable under the Anticyclone. And things should become more faverable for development of a cyclone. The thing that may slow it down is dry air off to the west of the system. But I give this at least a chance at developing.
So pretty much do not expect any other area's to have much of a chance over the next 24 to 36 hours. I also expect slow development into a possible tropical storm with that system at 26/73. With a westward then possible landfall on northern Florida or GA around 84 to 96 hours. I'm not saying that its has a good chance but it is the best chance we got.
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cheezyWXguy
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Audrey2Katrina
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Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, and Saharan Air Layer... I believe... too bad the "Question Box" has dropped below the radar... I think both of these were addressed there. I'm not 100% certain of my answer as I'm no pro, here; but I think that's what they stand for.
A2K
A2K
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Flossy 56 Audrey 57 Hilda 64* Betsy 65* Camille 69* Edith 71 Carmen 74 Bob 79 Danny 85 Elena 85 Juan 85 Florence 88 Andrew 92*, Opal 95, Danny 97, Georges 98*, Isidore 02, Lili 02, Ivan 04, Cindy 05*, Dennis 05, Katrina 05*, Gustav 08*, Isaac 12*, Nate 17, Barry 19, Cristobal 20, Marco, 20, Sally, 20, Zeta 20*, Claudette 21 IDA* 21 Francine *24
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-23-2006
The Ull is centered as of this afternoon at 24.5 north/76 west. Which is inhancing upper level shear over the northern caribbean/southeastern gulf(Subtropical jet stream). This area is not moving or moving very slowly off to the southwest. A strong Anticyclone over central America centered at 87 west which has alot of moist air....
The Anticyclone at the upper levels is centered over the northeast gulf of Mexico. With the high extending north of the ULL/possible tropical system. Second Ull at 30 north/62 west which looks to be moving east-southeastwrad. The Low level Anticyclone is centered at 33 north/70 west...The Ull we been fellowing for the last few days is at 34/48 today backing westward. A trough is pushing east-southeastward north of the great lakes today...With has formed a a strong jet stream/jet streak over the eastern sea board. A pulse/frontal wave is at 40 to 45 north/76 to 82 over PA/Main. Also another one centered at 35 north/97 west. Which is inline with this jet stream/overall flow. Another wave seems to be centered at 62 to 64 west. Which is moving slowly westward.
Most of the western Atlatnic into the western Caribbean is moist. But the Gulf is still pretty dry. Eastern Caribbean has a area of dry air. A large area of dry air is north of 10 north over the eastern Atlatnic from 55 west to the cape verdes. Which is unfaverable.
Upper level enviroment has become more faverable over the western Atlatnic. With wind shear decrease of 20 knots over 20 north from the Florida coast to 62 west. The shear is slowly rising over the northern Caribbean with 40 knots shear south of Cuba. The tutt is centered at 48 west today with 10 knot increases over the eastern side north of 10 north. From 38 to 60 west. 20 knot decreases north of 10 from 42 to 35 west.
We got two area's to watch today. Both areas the enviroment is becoming more faverable.
1# The system at 74.5/27 looks to have developed a LLC/MLC but convection is limited to only the eastern side of the low pressure area. Popcorn convection has shown signs of developing. Why is it not developing more convection over its LLC the reason is because of dry air over the western side. The ULL should back away which should help pull this to the west. While the low level Bermuda high to the north should help to steer it same wise. Hurricane models are in good agreement for a westward track over the next 72 hours. In Florida is looking very likely to be hit with this. The trough over texas could weaken the Anticyclone by 72 to 84 hours. Which could pull it northward off the east coast. But its more likely that it will hold in to pull the system to the west. The enviroment should slowly become more faverable for development of maybe a moderate tropical storm before landfall.
I expect it to develop convection over the center later tonight. The nhc has putt a 1.0/1.0 t number on it. So it looks very likely that we will see a depression tomarrow.
2# Models show development with the wave at 24/66. Which is showing some spin to it. The wave at 64 west should help with its energy to form this into a possible cyclone. Models show a northwestward movement with the system. I think this area has a good chance of some development of the next 36 to 48 hours.
Model discussion...
The Gfdl forms only a weak wind field/isobar as it makes landfall over northern Northern Florida. By 48 to 56 hours. All Hurricane models agree with a northern Florida landfall as of the 12z. The Gfdl kind of moves the second system to the west-northwest or northwest through out its forecast period. I think this system could be the system to watch out for. The Gfs moves it slowly westward...In 36 hours it starts to develop a closed system off Florida. While it starts really developing the system at 60 to 62. It appears to be forecasting a northeastward movement for that system placing it at 28/58 by 66 hours.
The Ull is centered as of this afternoon at 24.5 north/76 west. Which is inhancing upper level shear over the northern caribbean/southeastern gulf(Subtropical jet stream). This area is not moving or moving very slowly off to the southwest. A strong Anticyclone over central America centered at 87 west which has alot of moist air....
The Anticyclone at the upper levels is centered over the northeast gulf of Mexico. With the high extending north of the ULL/possible tropical system. Second Ull at 30 north/62 west which looks to be moving east-southeastwrad. The Low level Anticyclone is centered at 33 north/70 west...The Ull we been fellowing for the last few days is at 34/48 today backing westward. A trough is pushing east-southeastward north of the great lakes today...With has formed a a strong jet stream/jet streak over the eastern sea board. A pulse/frontal wave is at 40 to 45 north/76 to 82 over PA/Main. Also another one centered at 35 north/97 west. Which is inline with this jet stream/overall flow. Another wave seems to be centered at 62 to 64 west. Which is moving slowly westward.
Most of the western Atlatnic into the western Caribbean is moist. But the Gulf is still pretty dry. Eastern Caribbean has a area of dry air. A large area of dry air is north of 10 north over the eastern Atlatnic from 55 west to the cape verdes. Which is unfaverable.
Upper level enviroment has become more faverable over the western Atlatnic. With wind shear decrease of 20 knots over 20 north from the Florida coast to 62 west. The shear is slowly rising over the northern Caribbean with 40 knots shear south of Cuba. The tutt is centered at 48 west today with 10 knot increases over the eastern side north of 10 north. From 38 to 60 west. 20 knot decreases north of 10 from 42 to 35 west.
We got two area's to watch today. Both areas the enviroment is becoming more faverable.
1# The system at 74.5/27 looks to have developed a LLC/MLC but convection is limited to only the eastern side of the low pressure area. Popcorn convection has shown signs of developing. Why is it not developing more convection over its LLC the reason is because of dry air over the western side. The ULL should back away which should help pull this to the west. While the low level Bermuda high to the north should help to steer it same wise. Hurricane models are in good agreement for a westward track over the next 72 hours. In Florida is looking very likely to be hit with this. The trough over texas could weaken the Anticyclone by 72 to 84 hours. Which could pull it northward off the east coast. But its more likely that it will hold in to pull the system to the west. The enviroment should slowly become more faverable for development of maybe a moderate tropical storm before landfall.
I expect it to develop convection over the center later tonight. The nhc has putt a 1.0/1.0 t number on it. So it looks very likely that we will see a depression tomarrow.
2# Models show development with the wave at 24/66. Which is showing some spin to it. The wave at 64 west should help with its energy to form this into a possible cyclone. Models show a northwestward movement with the system. I think this area has a good chance of some development of the next 36 to 48 hours.
Model discussion...
The Gfdl forms only a weak wind field/isobar as it makes landfall over northern Northern Florida. By 48 to 56 hours. All Hurricane models agree with a northern Florida landfall as of the 12z. The Gfdl kind of moves the second system to the west-northwest or northwest through out its forecast period. I think this system could be the system to watch out for. The Gfs moves it slowly westward...In 36 hours it starts to develop a closed system off Florida. While it starts really developing the system at 60 to 62. It appears to be forecasting a northeastward movement for that system placing it at 28/58 by 66 hours.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-24-2006
I'm making this early today because today it will be over 90 degrees. But we got two systems we are watching right now...
Overall Atlantic
A upper low pressure area is moving very slowly to the west. Which is centered at 25.5 north/75 west. This ULL is enhancing a shear zone/jet over the caribbean/western Atlantic mostly over the southern part/southeast quad . Which is why there is strong upper level shear over the caribbean. The ridge appears to have moved over the Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/85 west. Looking today it appears that the area north of the inlands south of 30 has shear of 20 to 30 knots. Which with the wave at 65 to 68 west makes it unfaverable. Believe it or not our upper level low that we have tracked across the eastern into the central Atlantic has moved to 49 west/34 north. This area has developed some convection...In will be the main area of interest. This area has formed a jet stream/shear zone at 28/52 west.
A large surface Anticyclone/Bermuda high is centered at 35 north/65 west...Which downwards to 25 north from 70 to 65 west...Which is helping enhance the shear zone to its south.
A trough has remained over the northeastern part of the united states. A short wave is at 44 north/77 west...Another one is 36 north/90 west. Which has moved 7 degreees since yesterday. On this course with a slight east-southwest movement for the next 12 to 18 hours. Fellowed by a east-northeast or northeast once it starts pushing up the side of the ridge. This area at 24 hours should be at around 82 west. Which should start breaking the ridge to the north of the distrabance off Florida...The distrabance will likely be pulled northwestward after 24 to 30 hours. The upper level Anicyclone is centered at 47 north/38 west. Which should keep the ULL south of it moving westward.
Shear
A jet maxs is centered at 18 north/75 west over the caribbean. The tutt is remains south of the ULL at 34/50. With a shear max at 20 north/40 west in again at 25 north/50 west. Both area's have 50 knot wind shear. The area off Florida 35 to 20 north from 70 to 85 west reminds with shear of 5 to 20 knots. With the most faverable over the distrabance of florida of 5 to 10 knots. Under the ULL at 34/48 5 knot shear has set in. Shear has decreased south of 25 north of 20 at 20 knots from 65 to 80 west. While a increase is north of 20 from 60 to 45 west. A narrow area through the caribbean has 10 knot shear, around the 70 west max.
Sal north of 12 to the cape verde to 60 west...Is very unfaverable. Most of the rest of the Atlatnic reminds below normal.
1# LLC off Florida...A small LLC has formed just off the coast at 27 north/79 west. Which the surface data shows that it maybe at the surface. A blow up of convection is just south of the LLC. A second area at 28/76.5 is a broad MLc...Which is the center of the overall low. Some convection has developed over the northeastern side. Because of the dry air and time the chances for this to become a cyclone has decreased. A movement to the west into Florida Sunday morning is likely...Fellowed by a northwest movement after 24 hours.
2# The second area is invest 92L...Which believe it or not is our upper low which has been moving westward. The quickscat shows a weak LLC forming under the LLC at 47 west/32 west. The models show a westward movement of the system through the next 24 hours. Then afterwards should start turning west-northwest or northwest at 36 to 48 hours. This area has the classic convection and banding forming with it. Which has been forming convection over its core, while moving westwrad.
I expect that this system is very near if not already a subtropical storm. Which should get to about 40 to 45 knots by 24 hours. The movement should be to the west for the next 24 hours...Being fellowed by a west-northwest or northwest track then after....
I'm also thinking that system the Gfs trys to spin up at 65 west/north of 25...Will likely be extratropical because of strong upper level wind shear. But we will see...
I'm making this early today because today it will be over 90 degrees. But we got two systems we are watching right now...
Overall Atlantic
A upper low pressure area is moving very slowly to the west. Which is centered at 25.5 north/75 west. This ULL is enhancing a shear zone/jet over the caribbean/western Atlantic mostly over the southern part/southeast quad . Which is why there is strong upper level shear over the caribbean. The ridge appears to have moved over the Gulf of Mexico around 25 north/85 west. Looking today it appears that the area north of the inlands south of 30 has shear of 20 to 30 knots. Which with the wave at 65 to 68 west makes it unfaverable. Believe it or not our upper level low that we have tracked across the eastern into the central Atlantic has moved to 49 west/34 north. This area has developed some convection...In will be the main area of interest. This area has formed a jet stream/shear zone at 28/52 west.
A large surface Anticyclone/Bermuda high is centered at 35 north/65 west...Which downwards to 25 north from 70 to 65 west...Which is helping enhance the shear zone to its south.
A trough has remained over the northeastern part of the united states. A short wave is at 44 north/77 west...Another one is 36 north/90 west. Which has moved 7 degreees since yesterday. On this course with a slight east-southwest movement for the next 12 to 18 hours. Fellowed by a east-northeast or northeast once it starts pushing up the side of the ridge. This area at 24 hours should be at around 82 west. Which should start breaking the ridge to the north of the distrabance off Florida...The distrabance will likely be pulled northwestward after 24 to 30 hours. The upper level Anicyclone is centered at 47 north/38 west. Which should keep the ULL south of it moving westward.
Shear
A jet maxs is centered at 18 north/75 west over the caribbean. The tutt is remains south of the ULL at 34/50. With a shear max at 20 north/40 west in again at 25 north/50 west. Both area's have 50 knot wind shear. The area off Florida 35 to 20 north from 70 to 85 west reminds with shear of 5 to 20 knots. With the most faverable over the distrabance of florida of 5 to 10 knots. Under the ULL at 34/48 5 knot shear has set in. Shear has decreased south of 25 north of 20 at 20 knots from 65 to 80 west. While a increase is north of 20 from 60 to 45 west. A narrow area through the caribbean has 10 knot shear, around the 70 west max.
Sal north of 12 to the cape verde to 60 west...Is very unfaverable. Most of the rest of the Atlatnic reminds below normal.
1# LLC off Florida...A small LLC has formed just off the coast at 27 north/79 west. Which the surface data shows that it maybe at the surface. A blow up of convection is just south of the LLC. A second area at 28/76.5 is a broad MLc...Which is the center of the overall low. Some convection has developed over the northeastern side. Because of the dry air and time the chances for this to become a cyclone has decreased. A movement to the west into Florida Sunday morning is likely...Fellowed by a northwest movement after 24 hours.
2# The second area is invest 92L...Which believe it or not is our upper low which has been moving westward. The quickscat shows a weak LLC forming under the LLC at 47 west/32 west. The models show a westward movement of the system through the next 24 hours. Then afterwards should start turning west-northwest or northwest at 36 to 48 hours. This area has the classic convection and banding forming with it. Which has been forming convection over its core, while moving westwrad.
I expect that this system is very near if not already a subtropical storm. Which should get to about 40 to 45 knots by 24 hours. The movement should be to the west for the next 24 hours...Being fellowed by a west-northwest or northwest track then after....
I'm also thinking that system the Gfs trys to spin up at 65 west/north of 25...Will likely be extratropical because of strong upper level wind shear. But we will see...
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AL Chili Pepper
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-25-2006
The ULL is centered at 25.5/77 today. Which is still developing strong upper level shear over the caribbean/southern gulf of Mexico. A Anticyclone has formed over the gulf of mexico at 92 west. Another Anticyclone over central America into the southwestern part of the caribbean is helping to channel strong shear between both the ULL to its north and its self. Which lays at 70 to 90 west/15 to 18 north. Which is the shear max we where talking about yesterday. A shortwave has formed on it at 18 north/92 west over the boc. Which could enhance some of the shear has it moves eastward.
The trough remains off the east coast of the United states. With a long wave at 48 north/68. With a shear max or jet max at 37 north/84 west, infront of a Ull droping out of the western Great lakes area centered at 44 north/93 west. This is curving out a trough over the central United states. Which models slowly move to the east coast over the next 72 to 120 hours. We can see that the LLC off Florida is moving northward...Also convection is forming just off the coastline which is being steered to the north. Which is a sign that this is being picked up.
A ULL we been watching is at 35/52. Which looked yesterday that it wented to become something. But today the convection has faded away in it appears it has weaken. Overall this is just part of the overall ULL which has become very broad. A low pressure/ULL at 29 north/54 west is slowly moving northeastward around the base of the ULL. Which has developed deep convection this morning. It should turn northward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Was this the area the models where hinting very likely. But it is enhancing shear over its southeast quad from 20 north/55 west to 28 north/50 west.
A storng Anticyclone has formed near 32 north/65 west. And another to the north of the ULL at around 35 across the north Atlatnic from the Azores all the way to the Eastern Sea board. These highs are called the Azores high and the Bermuda high. Which the models forecast to build very strongly over the next 24 to 72 hours. But anything that trys to pass north of 20. Will be picked up by the trough at 48 to 72 hours coming down from the midwest.
The Anitcyclone over the Gulf of Mexico is helping inforce the dry air. With the Bermuda over the western Atlatnic doing the same. Both area's are mainly unfaverable. The eastern Atlatnic is becoming more moist again with a distrabance at 10 north/38 west with deep convection. Possible MLC. Again at 9 north/28 west. With a pocket of dry air to its northwest.
Wind shear
Over the western Atlatnic into the eastern gulf the shear is very slight about 5 to 10 knots. a small Anticyclone appears to have formed just off the coast of Ga/northern Florida. Which is north of our LLC. The shear max over the caribbean has moved eastward since yesterday into the central caribbean ranging from 68 to 80 west north of 12 south of 18. The tutt is at 55 west/30 north. With a large area of 50 knot shear over its eastern side going down to 20 north. The distrabance at 10 north/38 west seems to be under 10 to 15 knot shear. Which is not to bad.
Shear has increased some over the central caribbean. But the central Atlatnic seems to slowly becoming more faverable.
Sal the Atlatnic south of 30 and west of 60 seems to be SAL fre today. With the SAL weaking over the central Atlatnic. While the SAL is still strong off the Cape verdes north of 12 north.
1# Today we got a weak LLC just off shore Florida at 27.8 degrees/80.2. Which is moving northward. The MLC appears to be at 25.5/79.5 just east of Miami. This is are main area of interest. It is moving northward quickly...In on latest visible seems to be losing all cloud cover with it. Not a good sign for development. But the nhc still is planing a recon for it. A northward movement should be in the cards for the next 24 to 36 hours. I dont't expect it to become anything at this time unless it can develop convection.
2# Needs to be the tropical distrabance at 10 north/48 west. Which is moving very quickly off to the west today. But the northern part of it seems to have lost some of it convection. The area is becoming more focused on 8.5 north with a MLC developing there. This this lat it is safe from SAL/Shear...Which it is in a faverable area for some development. Even so reconds show that development this time of the shear over this area is rare or unheard of. I would watch this system. At the speed its going the quickscats are sure not going to be able to find a LLC with it. Heck recon would have a hard time.
The ULL is centered at 25.5/77 today. Which is still developing strong upper level shear over the caribbean/southern gulf of Mexico. A Anticyclone has formed over the gulf of mexico at 92 west. Another Anticyclone over central America into the southwestern part of the caribbean is helping to channel strong shear between both the ULL to its north and its self. Which lays at 70 to 90 west/15 to 18 north. Which is the shear max we where talking about yesterday. A shortwave has formed on it at 18 north/92 west over the boc. Which could enhance some of the shear has it moves eastward.
The trough remains off the east coast of the United states. With a long wave at 48 north/68. With a shear max or jet max at 37 north/84 west, infront of a Ull droping out of the western Great lakes area centered at 44 north/93 west. This is curving out a trough over the central United states. Which models slowly move to the east coast over the next 72 to 120 hours. We can see that the LLC off Florida is moving northward...Also convection is forming just off the coastline which is being steered to the north. Which is a sign that this is being picked up.
A ULL we been watching is at 35/52. Which looked yesterday that it wented to become something. But today the convection has faded away in it appears it has weaken. Overall this is just part of the overall ULL which has become very broad. A low pressure/ULL at 29 north/54 west is slowly moving northeastward around the base of the ULL. Which has developed deep convection this morning. It should turn northward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Was this the area the models where hinting very likely. But it is enhancing shear over its southeast quad from 20 north/55 west to 28 north/50 west.
A storng Anticyclone has formed near 32 north/65 west. And another to the north of the ULL at around 35 across the north Atlatnic from the Azores all the way to the Eastern Sea board. These highs are called the Azores high and the Bermuda high. Which the models forecast to build very strongly over the next 24 to 72 hours. But anything that trys to pass north of 20. Will be picked up by the trough at 48 to 72 hours coming down from the midwest.
The Anitcyclone over the Gulf of Mexico is helping inforce the dry air. With the Bermuda over the western Atlatnic doing the same. Both area's are mainly unfaverable. The eastern Atlatnic is becoming more moist again with a distrabance at 10 north/38 west with deep convection. Possible MLC. Again at 9 north/28 west. With a pocket of dry air to its northwest.
Wind shear
Over the western Atlatnic into the eastern gulf the shear is very slight about 5 to 10 knots. a small Anticyclone appears to have formed just off the coast of Ga/northern Florida. Which is north of our LLC. The shear max over the caribbean has moved eastward since yesterday into the central caribbean ranging from 68 to 80 west north of 12 south of 18. The tutt is at 55 west/30 north. With a large area of 50 knot shear over its eastern side going down to 20 north. The distrabance at 10 north/38 west seems to be under 10 to 15 knot shear. Which is not to bad.
Shear has increased some over the central caribbean. But the central Atlatnic seems to slowly becoming more faverable.
Sal the Atlatnic south of 30 and west of 60 seems to be SAL fre today. With the SAL weaking over the central Atlatnic. While the SAL is still strong off the Cape verdes north of 12 north.
1# Today we got a weak LLC just off shore Florida at 27.8 degrees/80.2. Which is moving northward. The MLC appears to be at 25.5/79.5 just east of Miami. This is are main area of interest. It is moving northward quickly...In on latest visible seems to be losing all cloud cover with it. Not a good sign for development. But the nhc still is planing a recon for it. A northward movement should be in the cards for the next 24 to 36 hours. I dont't expect it to become anything at this time unless it can develop convection.
2# Needs to be the tropical distrabance at 10 north/48 west. Which is moving very quickly off to the west today. But the northern part of it seems to have lost some of it convection. The area is becoming more focused on 8.5 north with a MLC developing there. This this lat it is safe from SAL/Shear...Which it is in a faverable area for some development. Even so reconds show that development this time of the shear over this area is rare or unheard of. I would watch this system. At the speed its going the quickscats are sure not going to be able to find a LLC with it. Heck recon would have a hard time.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
I small update...8pm pst.
The tropical distrabance/93L which is area two where where talking about earlier. The convection has faded over the northern side, with the area around 7 north/45 west developing a MLC. The system is moving quickly off to the west. Which should make it very hard even if it doe's form a LLC for the quickscat to catch it. The SAL/Shear levels like earlier talked about seem to be faverable for the short term.
The shear zone over the caribbean is slowly moving eastward. Which should set up shop over the eastern Caribbean by 24 to 36 hours. The enviroment by the time this makes 55 west should be unfaverable.
Chances for development is low at this time.
The tropical distrabance/93L which is area two where where talking about earlier. The convection has faded over the northern side, with the area around 7 north/45 west developing a MLC. The system is moving quickly off to the west. Which should make it very hard even if it doe's form a LLC for the quickscat to catch it. The SAL/Shear levels like earlier talked about seem to be faverable for the short term.
The shear zone over the caribbean is slowly moving eastward. Which should set up shop over the eastern Caribbean by 24 to 36 hours. The enviroment by the time this makes 55 west should be unfaverable.
Chances for development is low at this time.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-26-2006.
The ULL has backed westward to 27 north/80 west. Which has moved the shear max back over the western caribbean. This ULL is in between to upper level Anticyclones. One Anticyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico centered at 29.5/92. Another which is the Bermuda/Azores high which is building southward. Yet another lays over central America at 14/86. Which is helping thunnel the shear between the two.
The center of the Bermuda high(At least upper level) is at 35 north/70 west. The Azores high center at 40 north/30 west. Really these two high is bridging the whole north Atlatnic.
A ULL over the midwest is cetnered at 43/90. Which has a jet max/shortwave at 37 north/85 west. With another trough at 50 north/60 west. Another trough is pushing down over the southern Canada centered at 50 north/90 west. Which should help to push the trough/ULL to the southeast over the next 48 hours. The Ull we been watching for a week is at 37 north/54 west. Another is at 30 north/52 west. This is also enhancing a shear zone southeast of it. Which this is called the tutt.
The eastern/central Atlatnic is becoming more faverable shear wise. Which this is stated for south of 15 north. Dry air is over the gulf of Mexico. Which makes most except the eastern most part unfaverable. The Anticyclone over central America is keeping everything moist west of 80. While the rest of the caribbean(Eastern part) is very dry. Betsides the wave at 45 west this dry air go all the way to the cape verdes. Which it is moister for the system/distrabance below 10 north. The western Atlatnic under the Anticyclone appears to be very dry/unfaverable.
The peak area of shear over the caribbean appears to be 40 knots. Which is centered near 15 north/70 to 80 west. A Anticyclone appears to be off the east coast(GA,SC) with faverable upper levels. The tropics south of 10 north over the central Atlantic appears to be faverable. Shear levels are decreasing over the western Atlatnic. While increasing over Texas and the midwest. Which should move eastward over the next few days like talk about above.
Sal Another burst of it has come off the Cape verdes. Which the leading edge is centered at 30 west today. The area to the west appears weaken. Off the east coast a area of SAL has also formed.
1# Area of low pressure off Florida, let me just say never ever write something like this off. There appears to be a developing LLC at 27.8 north/79.5 Which has formed convection over its top. Also the MLC is inline with it. The nhc has found that one minute winds are at 33 mph with higher gust. Another vortex is centered at 29/79. Which is moving quickly off to the north. The area is faverable with ligh shear...But still has to deal with the ULL some. This may become a depression at anytime if convection keep forming over the cirulation. In it is found to have closed on off. Then a northward movement should take place for the next 24 hours.
The wave at 8 north/47 west doe's not look to good. In its moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Which should take it into south America.
Wave at 12 north/45 west might need to be watched as the central Atlantic becomes slowly more faverable. But nothing looks to be forming into a depression over the next few days.
That is all because today is going to be a very hot day...
The ULL has backed westward to 27 north/80 west. Which has moved the shear max back over the western caribbean. This ULL is in between to upper level Anticyclones. One Anticyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico centered at 29.5/92. Another which is the Bermuda/Azores high which is building southward. Yet another lays over central America at 14/86. Which is helping thunnel the shear between the two.
The center of the Bermuda high(At least upper level) is at 35 north/70 west. The Azores high center at 40 north/30 west. Really these two high is bridging the whole north Atlatnic.
A ULL over the midwest is cetnered at 43/90. Which has a jet max/shortwave at 37 north/85 west. With another trough at 50 north/60 west. Another trough is pushing down over the southern Canada centered at 50 north/90 west. Which should help to push the trough/ULL to the southeast over the next 48 hours. The Ull we been watching for a week is at 37 north/54 west. Another is at 30 north/52 west. This is also enhancing a shear zone southeast of it. Which this is called the tutt.
The eastern/central Atlatnic is becoming more faverable shear wise. Which this is stated for south of 15 north. Dry air is over the gulf of Mexico. Which makes most except the eastern most part unfaverable. The Anticyclone over central America is keeping everything moist west of 80. While the rest of the caribbean(Eastern part) is very dry. Betsides the wave at 45 west this dry air go all the way to the cape verdes. Which it is moister for the system/distrabance below 10 north. The western Atlatnic under the Anticyclone appears to be very dry/unfaverable.
The peak area of shear over the caribbean appears to be 40 knots. Which is centered near 15 north/70 to 80 west. A Anticyclone appears to be off the east coast(GA,SC) with faverable upper levels. The tropics south of 10 north over the central Atlantic appears to be faverable. Shear levels are decreasing over the western Atlatnic. While increasing over Texas and the midwest. Which should move eastward over the next few days like talk about above.
Sal Another burst of it has come off the Cape verdes. Which the leading edge is centered at 30 west today. The area to the west appears weaken. Off the east coast a area of SAL has also formed.
1# Area of low pressure off Florida, let me just say never ever write something like this off. There appears to be a developing LLC at 27.8 north/79.5 Which has formed convection over its top. Also the MLC is inline with it. The nhc has found that one minute winds are at 33 mph with higher gust. Another vortex is centered at 29/79. Which is moving quickly off to the north. The area is faverable with ligh shear...But still has to deal with the ULL some. This may become a depression at anytime if convection keep forming over the cirulation. In it is found to have closed on off. Then a northward movement should take place for the next 24 hours.
The wave at 8 north/47 west doe's not look to good. In its moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. Which should take it into south America.
Wave at 12 north/45 west might need to be watched as the central Atlantic becomes slowly more faverable. But nothing looks to be forming into a depression over the next few days.
That is all because today is going to be a very hot day...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6:30 pm pst update
1# Distrabance off Florida has developed some deep convection. The lowest pressure based on obs is over southern GA around 32 north/82 west. But there appears to be a broad MLC developing at 29 north/79 west. Which appears that it is strengthing slowly as it moves to the north. Deep convection over the southern/western side has spread out. It is looking likely that this area of convection is going to try to wrap around this low. The nhc/nws points this area developing into a gale center. But it could as easly become a cyclone. I'm going to say that this will strengthen up to about 40 to 45 knots gale center or tropical cyclone we will see. Some of this convection is being formed from the ULL. Which is forcing air up into the Atmosphere which reachs its dew point then boom then clouds/thunderstorms form. Another ULL over the Gulf is moving northeastward. But between these two a upper level Anticyclone is to the north just off Ga.
2# A small LLC at 11 north/46 west which is moving westward. This area has a well defined LLC with most of its convection over the southern part. Quickscats don't show a closed LLC but its normal for the quickscats when a system is moving 20 knots for it to show a west winds. A small area of convection has been pulsing over the last 12 hours. In which the enviroment with shear/SAL appear to be faverable for the next 24 hours.
We will see if we can get Beryl.
1# Distrabance off Florida has developed some deep convection. The lowest pressure based on obs is over southern GA around 32 north/82 west. But there appears to be a broad MLC developing at 29 north/79 west. Which appears that it is strengthing slowly as it moves to the north. Deep convection over the southern/western side has spread out. It is looking likely that this area of convection is going to try to wrap around this low. The nhc/nws points this area developing into a gale center. But it could as easly become a cyclone. I'm going to say that this will strengthen up to about 40 to 45 knots gale center or tropical cyclone we will see. Some of this convection is being formed from the ULL. Which is forcing air up into the Atmosphere which reachs its dew point then boom then clouds/thunderstorms form. Another ULL over the Gulf is moving northeastward. But between these two a upper level Anticyclone is to the north just off Ga.
2# A small LLC at 11 north/46 west which is moving westward. This area has a well defined LLC with most of its convection over the southern part. Quickscats don't show a closed LLC but its normal for the quickscats when a system is moving 20 knots for it to show a west winds. A small area of convection has been pulsing over the last 12 hours. In which the enviroment with shear/SAL appear to be faverable for the next 24 hours.
We will see if we can get Beryl.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-27-2006
Only got a few hours of sleep so only going to be short...
1# 91L is moving north-northeastward at around 20 mph. This system is centered at 34 north/77 west. A low pressure area is centered over central NC. Which is moving northeastward. This area of low pressure is helping to pull the system the north-northeast ahead of it. The axis of southly upper level winds/jet max is at 82 west. Which is slowly pushing to the east. Based on this I expect this system to turn more northeastward over the next 6 to 12 hours. Which would place it near 36.5/76.5 back over water. Will this be another gaston we will have to watch for that.
Recon found a partly closed LLC with 55 knot winds at 850 millibars=45 knots at the surface. So overall should stay pretty close to the coast...Maybe even pull back over water. The one factor is the water is a little cool but it could still form.
2# 93L has formed a well defined LLC, and deep convectoin over the eastern side. The LLC is small but convection has flared over it over the last few hours. The center of the system is at 11.5/53 west. This LLC has a overall larger cirulation which looks very impressive. This system is moving westward or west-northwest at 15 mph. Shear levels over shear to its north is at 40 knots(18 north). But overall over the system there is 5 to 10 knot shear which is faverable. The shear is decreasing over the system its self at this time. So this thing should have about 24 to 36 hours of formation time. Then once into the caribbean there is strong shear of 20 knots or more. Some shear models show a decreasing of that shear.
So this is all for now.
Only got a few hours of sleep so only going to be short...
1# 91L is moving north-northeastward at around 20 mph. This system is centered at 34 north/77 west. A low pressure area is centered over central NC. Which is moving northeastward. This area of low pressure is helping to pull the system the north-northeast ahead of it. The axis of southly upper level winds/jet max is at 82 west. Which is slowly pushing to the east. Based on this I expect this system to turn more northeastward over the next 6 to 12 hours. Which would place it near 36.5/76.5 back over water. Will this be another gaston we will have to watch for that.
Recon found a partly closed LLC with 55 knot winds at 850 millibars=45 knots at the surface. So overall should stay pretty close to the coast...Maybe even pull back over water. The one factor is the water is a little cool but it could still form.
2# 93L has formed a well defined LLC, and deep convectoin over the eastern side. The LLC is small but convection has flared over it over the last few hours. The center of the system is at 11.5/53 west. This LLC has a overall larger cirulation which looks very impressive. This system is moving westward or west-northwest at 15 mph. Shear levels over shear to its north is at 40 knots(18 north). But overall over the system there is 5 to 10 knot shear which is faverable. The shear is decreasing over the system its self at this time. So this thing should have about 24 to 36 hours of formation time. Then once into the caribbean there is strong shear of 20 knots or more. Some shear models show a decreasing of that shear.
So this is all for now.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-28-2006
A ULL is centered at 31 north/65 west...This Ull is slowly moving to the west. It is droping the tutt into the eastern caribbean from its southeastern quad. Strong shear is at 62 to 70 west, with a upper level Anticyclone at 12 north/58 west. Another Ull at 23 north/77.5 is droping southeastward into the caribbeam. Strong upper level shear is to the southeast/southside. The Jet stream is centered at 32 north from 85 to 100 west. This is making the northern gulf very unfaverable. A Anticyclone is over the eastern gulf of Mexico near 25/85.
A strong Anticyclone is centered at 44 north/67 west. Which is from 70 droping down at 55 west. With a trough over the northeastern Atlatnic from 40 north/40 to 25 west. Which is moving eastward slowly. This is enhancing strong shear from 28 north from 55 to 35 west. A strong Jet is just inland on the east coast...Which has been the reason for the big floods over the east coast. This area is being enhanced by a ULL over the great lakes area centered 45 north/87 west. Whats left of the tropical distrabance is currently moving into canada. Another jet max is at 32 north/85 west. Which should rotate up the east coast.
Dry air from the cape verdes north of 10 north all the way to 55 west...Which is very unfaverable. 55 to 65 west over the eastern caribbean moist air is in place. Over most of the caribbean dry air is also in place west of 65 west. The gulf of Mexico is very dry. Most off the east coast the air is moist. While over the Yuctan and central America it is moist because of the Anticyclone.
Strong upper level shear is over the central Caribbean with a shear max of 40 knots just south of Hati near 70 to 75 west. The Tutt is at 62 to 65 west. Which is nosing into the eastern caribbean...Most of the caribbean is under 25 to 40 knot shear. The Anticyclone that is over the tropical wave at 58/60 west Shear levels decrease 10 knots under the Anticyclone...While under the tutt over the northeast caribbean shear levels increases 10 knots. The second ull over the western Atlatnic is forming a shear increase just south of the bay of pigs(Cuba). So pretty much every where north of 20 north...Except just offf Florida has higher to 20 knot shear. While you have to go down to 10 north over the central Atlatnic to get into faverable upper levels. This is just amazing shear wise.
Sal
Every where north of 10 and west of 50 is under deep SAL. East coast area is under it to. Most of the rest is under little or none.
Shear forecast
The Gfs 12z shear model holds strong upper level shear through out the forecast period(0 to 126 hours) over the caribbean. It also shows low level shear holding tight just south of Hati/Dr(70 to 80 west) Which is even more unfaverable. By 96 to 126 hours it builds the tutt over the central Atlatnic from 55 to 62 west all the way to 10 north. It also keeps the northern gulf into the western Atlatnic under deep shear. At around 102 hours it shows a Anticyclone forming over the BOC/southern Gulf. We will see.
The tropical wave at 58 to 62 west is todays area of interest. A upper level Anticyclone is show far keeping shear below 20 knots. A weak MLC seems to be about 10 north/60 west just south of the islands. This area is expected to move westward for the next few days...Into increasing upper level shear. The Gfs shear models forecast about 96 hours for a Anticyclone to build over the western Caribbean/southern Gulf. In which this system could get into that area. Around that time...There is just not much of a chance after 24 hours for development of this system.
That is all.
A ULL is centered at 31 north/65 west...This Ull is slowly moving to the west. It is droping the tutt into the eastern caribbean from its southeastern quad. Strong shear is at 62 to 70 west, with a upper level Anticyclone at 12 north/58 west. Another Ull at 23 north/77.5 is droping southeastward into the caribbeam. Strong upper level shear is to the southeast/southside. The Jet stream is centered at 32 north from 85 to 100 west. This is making the northern gulf very unfaverable. A Anticyclone is over the eastern gulf of Mexico near 25/85.
A strong Anticyclone is centered at 44 north/67 west. Which is from 70 droping down at 55 west. With a trough over the northeastern Atlatnic from 40 north/40 to 25 west. Which is moving eastward slowly. This is enhancing strong shear from 28 north from 55 to 35 west. A strong Jet is just inland on the east coast...Which has been the reason for the big floods over the east coast. This area is being enhanced by a ULL over the great lakes area centered 45 north/87 west. Whats left of the tropical distrabance is currently moving into canada. Another jet max is at 32 north/85 west. Which should rotate up the east coast.
Dry air from the cape verdes north of 10 north all the way to 55 west...Which is very unfaverable. 55 to 65 west over the eastern caribbean moist air is in place. Over most of the caribbean dry air is also in place west of 65 west. The gulf of Mexico is very dry. Most off the east coast the air is moist. While over the Yuctan and central America it is moist because of the Anticyclone.
Strong upper level shear is over the central Caribbean with a shear max of 40 knots just south of Hati near 70 to 75 west. The Tutt is at 62 to 65 west. Which is nosing into the eastern caribbean...Most of the caribbean is under 25 to 40 knot shear. The Anticyclone that is over the tropical wave at 58/60 west Shear levels decrease 10 knots under the Anticyclone...While under the tutt over the northeast caribbean shear levels increases 10 knots. The second ull over the western Atlatnic is forming a shear increase just south of the bay of pigs(Cuba). So pretty much every where north of 20 north...Except just offf Florida has higher to 20 knot shear. While you have to go down to 10 north over the central Atlatnic to get into faverable upper levels. This is just amazing shear wise.
Sal
Every where north of 10 and west of 50 is under deep SAL. East coast area is under it to. Most of the rest is under little or none.
Shear forecast
The Gfs 12z shear model holds strong upper level shear through out the forecast period(0 to 126 hours) over the caribbean. It also shows low level shear holding tight just south of Hati/Dr(70 to 80 west) Which is even more unfaverable. By 96 to 126 hours it builds the tutt over the central Atlatnic from 55 to 62 west all the way to 10 north. It also keeps the northern gulf into the western Atlatnic under deep shear. At around 102 hours it shows a Anticyclone forming over the BOC/southern Gulf. We will see.
The tropical wave at 58 to 62 west is todays area of interest. A upper level Anticyclone is show far keeping shear below 20 knots. A weak MLC seems to be about 10 north/60 west just south of the islands. This area is expected to move westward for the next few days...Into increasing upper level shear. The Gfs shear models forecast about 96 hours for a Anticyclone to build over the western Caribbean/southern Gulf. In which this system could get into that area. Around that time...There is just not much of a chance after 24 hours for development of this system.
That is all.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-29-2006
A strong ULL is at 34 north/68 west. This ull has formed a strong tutt over the central-north Atlatnic into the eastern Caribbean. With a flow out of the southwest at 62 to 70 west. That is strong upper level shear. Another weak Ull is at 23 north/72 west...Which is helping to enhance the shear over the central Caribbean. A third Ull is centered of Mexico at 23 north/103 west. Another strong one is moving into south Texas, this one has strong upper level shear just to its southeast(South-Right quad). A Anticyclone remains over the south-central/western caribbean at 12 north/65 to 80 west. Which is funneling the shear just north of it. The Jet stream remains over the northern Gulf coast at 29/30 north. Strong westly shear remain at 20 to 30 north.
The central Atlatnic west of 55 west all the way to the cape verdes is something you just don't see. It is very very very dry. Heck you have to go intill you below 10 north to find any moisture. The moisture you find over the eastern caribbean, it is with in deep shear. The central Caribbean is dry also. The Gulf is moist but with alot of shear. The one area of interest over the southwest BOC, has good moist air over it.
Because the main ULL is moving away...The shear max south of Jamica is now with 30 knot shear. With only a small area near 15/65. Overall most of the caribbean is only with 20 knot shear. Theres 50 knot shear at 20 to 25 north west of 60. But shear levels have gotten some what more faverable below 15 north through the central Atlatnic. When the strong Anticyclone builds eastly shear should be a major problem. The shear over our little BOC system is about 18 knots.
Sal
The sal from Africa north of 10 to 55 west...What can I say its strong and unfaverable. Most of the rest of the Atlantic only small area's.
The Azores/Bermuda high/Anticyclone is centered at 38 north/55 west. Which is steering our ULL to the west. The Jet stream centered at 78 west has started to steer this system more northward. Also it is riding up the westward side of this powerful Anticyclone. A Jet max/Jet streak is at 35 north/78 west. Which should bring even more rain to the northeast. The ULL over the great lakes has started to move to the west...Which it is centered at 44 north/80 west. This ULL should start moving northeastward after 24 to 36 hours. Which would be around the top of the ridge as it builds. So there is a chance for the east coast to dry out. As you can see by the model discussion below another trough builds later on.
Models thinking on shear...
The low level shear is strong just noth of 14 from 82 to 65 west. But after 96 hours a Anticyclone starts forming over the western Caribean/Gulf of Mexico. We now look at the 500 millibar shear, which holds the shear max just south of Jamica. But with a weak Anticyclone over the wave at 68 west. The weak Low just off the coast of Mexico in the BOC has some shear at 500 to. So 850 millibars,500 millibar shear is more or less a problem for both 93L and the distrabance. At 36 to 42 hours the shear spreads across the whole caribbean,BOC. But again this shear level shows a strong Anticyclone forming over the western caribbean and gulf of Mexico after 84 to 96 hours. At 144 hours most of the caribbean and gulf of Mexico. At least at this level not under much shear. While a strong tutt forms east of the islands. We look at the upper level shear, you can see that moderate to strong shear is across the caribbean and most of the Gulf.
Through the next 72 to 84 hours a ridge to the north is going to build from the Gulf of Mexico to Africa. This ridge is the Azores,Bermuda high. It is centered 38 north/50 west. This is the cmc. Now onto the Gfs which starts out the same...Which builds across the Atlatnic, with a base around 20 north. Which is is slightly weaker at 80 to 90 west then the Cmc. This should steer anything to the west over the Atlatnic or Caribbean. Then possibly even to the north if its north of 15 into the Gulf. But this is at the surface not the upper levels. 850 millibar level also shows a strong ridge going deep into the tropics. Also both models do not form anything.
1# The eastern caribbean wave...Let me be the first to say that this is not impressive. With the convection getting shear to the the northeast of the axis of the wave. Which is centered 65 west. But this area is the one to watch as it will be the one that most likely gets its energy draw into the BOC/Southern Gulf of Mexico at around 84 to 96 hours. Remember Tropical storm Bill of 2003 or Cindy of just last year. Yes maybe not the same thing but as the Anticyclone over the central Atlatnic builds in...It should steer the energy more to the north at around 85 west. With faverable upper levels we have to watch closely. When winds/energy gets stacked like this its only a matter of time.
2# The southwest BOC system...This system has a weak low just off the Mexican coast. This is centered at 18.8 north/96 west, it is moving northwestward. Over the last few satellite frames it has taken on a more northward trend. If this can head more northward it has a chance at some development over the next 12 hours. North of 22 or so north the enviroment gets very unfaverable. If it moves northward now I would say we got another Bret, or maybe even Matthew(2004)Not track wise but system wise. Deep convection has formed over it...Now the thing is doe's it stay off shore? Any way it should give southeast texas some more rain. In which will add to the rain that fall with the last distrabance. One thing in this things faver is the coast bends westward above 20 north. Which is good for it. I expect this thing to quickly become another bret, if it stays off the coast and south of 22 north.
So that is all...Also I will be gone starting Sunday intill the 5th of July.
A strong ULL is at 34 north/68 west. This ull has formed a strong tutt over the central-north Atlatnic into the eastern Caribbean. With a flow out of the southwest at 62 to 70 west. That is strong upper level shear. Another weak Ull is at 23 north/72 west...Which is helping to enhance the shear over the central Caribbean. A third Ull is centered of Mexico at 23 north/103 west. Another strong one is moving into south Texas, this one has strong upper level shear just to its southeast(South-Right quad). A Anticyclone remains over the south-central/western caribbean at 12 north/65 to 80 west. Which is funneling the shear just north of it. The Jet stream remains over the northern Gulf coast at 29/30 north. Strong westly shear remain at 20 to 30 north.
The central Atlatnic west of 55 west all the way to the cape verdes is something you just don't see. It is very very very dry. Heck you have to go intill you below 10 north to find any moisture. The moisture you find over the eastern caribbean, it is with in deep shear. The central Caribbean is dry also. The Gulf is moist but with alot of shear. The one area of interest over the southwest BOC, has good moist air over it.
Because the main ULL is moving away...The shear max south of Jamica is now with 30 knot shear. With only a small area near 15/65. Overall most of the caribbean is only with 20 knot shear. Theres 50 knot shear at 20 to 25 north west of 60. But shear levels have gotten some what more faverable below 15 north through the central Atlatnic. When the strong Anticyclone builds eastly shear should be a major problem. The shear over our little BOC system is about 18 knots.
Sal
The sal from Africa north of 10 to 55 west...What can I say its strong and unfaverable. Most of the rest of the Atlantic only small area's.
The Azores/Bermuda high/Anticyclone is centered at 38 north/55 west. Which is steering our ULL to the west. The Jet stream centered at 78 west has started to steer this system more northward. Also it is riding up the westward side of this powerful Anticyclone. A Jet max/Jet streak is at 35 north/78 west. Which should bring even more rain to the northeast. The ULL over the great lakes has started to move to the west...Which it is centered at 44 north/80 west. This ULL should start moving northeastward after 24 to 36 hours. Which would be around the top of the ridge as it builds. So there is a chance for the east coast to dry out. As you can see by the model discussion below another trough builds later on.
Models thinking on shear...
The low level shear is strong just noth of 14 from 82 to 65 west. But after 96 hours a Anticyclone starts forming over the western Caribean/Gulf of Mexico. We now look at the 500 millibar shear, which holds the shear max just south of Jamica. But with a weak Anticyclone over the wave at 68 west. The weak Low just off the coast of Mexico in the BOC has some shear at 500 to. So 850 millibars,500 millibar shear is more or less a problem for both 93L and the distrabance. At 36 to 42 hours the shear spreads across the whole caribbean,BOC. But again this shear level shows a strong Anticyclone forming over the western caribbean and gulf of Mexico after 84 to 96 hours. At 144 hours most of the caribbean and gulf of Mexico. At least at this level not under much shear. While a strong tutt forms east of the islands. We look at the upper level shear, you can see that moderate to strong shear is across the caribbean and most of the Gulf.
Through the next 72 to 84 hours a ridge to the north is going to build from the Gulf of Mexico to Africa. This ridge is the Azores,Bermuda high. It is centered 38 north/50 west. This is the cmc. Now onto the Gfs which starts out the same...Which builds across the Atlatnic, with a base around 20 north. Which is is slightly weaker at 80 to 90 west then the Cmc. This should steer anything to the west over the Atlatnic or Caribbean. Then possibly even to the north if its north of 15 into the Gulf. But this is at the surface not the upper levels. 850 millibar level also shows a strong ridge going deep into the tropics. Also both models do not form anything.
1# The eastern caribbean wave...Let me be the first to say that this is not impressive. With the convection getting shear to the the northeast of the axis of the wave. Which is centered 65 west. But this area is the one to watch as it will be the one that most likely gets its energy draw into the BOC/Southern Gulf of Mexico at around 84 to 96 hours. Remember Tropical storm Bill of 2003 or Cindy of just last year. Yes maybe not the same thing but as the Anticyclone over the central Atlatnic builds in...It should steer the energy more to the north at around 85 west. With faverable upper levels we have to watch closely. When winds/energy gets stacked like this its only a matter of time.
2# The southwest BOC system...This system has a weak low just off the Mexican coast. This is centered at 18.8 north/96 west, it is moving northwestward. Over the last few satellite frames it has taken on a more northward trend. If this can head more northward it has a chance at some development over the next 12 hours. North of 22 or so north the enviroment gets very unfaverable. If it moves northward now I would say we got another Bret, or maybe even Matthew(2004)Not track wise but system wise. Deep convection has formed over it...Now the thing is doe's it stay off shore? Any way it should give southeast texas some more rain. In which will add to the rain that fall with the last distrabance. One thing in this things faver is the coast bends westward above 20 north. Which is good for it. I expect this thing to quickly become another bret, if it stays off the coast and south of 22 north.
So that is all...Also I will be gone starting Sunday intill the 5th of July.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
6-30-2006
A ULL is over central Mexico at 24 north/102 west. This ULL is helping to form convection over the BOC. The subtropical Jet stream is over the northen gulf of Mexico at 28 north. Weak short wave at 30 north/100 west. ULL over Hati at 18 north/73 west...Which is making the eastern Caribbean very unfaverable. Also developing convection to its north. A anticyclone appears to have developed at 23 north/67 west. Which has formed a clockwise wind flow over the western Atlatnic distrabance.
A low pressure/ULL is centered at 45 north/75 west...With a front droping into the western Atlatnic. A second shortwave at 45 north/79 west will likely swing through main durning the next 24 hours. A Anticyclone is over the plains at around 105 west. With a shortwave moving out of the rockies at 45 north/105 west. Which is the one to watch for the BOC distrabance. The Bermuda/Azores high is clearly visible from 60 droping down at 40 west. Centered at 37 north/50 west.
The Gulf of Mexico is moisted today. And the area around the western Atlatnic distrabance is moist. East of it is very dry north of 20 to 40 west. The caribbean west of 65 is dry/unfaverable. With a small area near the leewards with moist air. South of 20 and north of 10 from 55 to the cape verdes bone dry.
From 18 to 25 north/55 to 35 west strong upper level shear. With a shear max near 20 north/42 west of 60 knots. A area of light shear of 5 to 15 knots is at 15 to 20 north/65 to 75 west. Which is over the distrabance. The Jet stream flowing over the northern gulf has 40 knot shear over northern Florida. The tutt is over the caribbean with 30 knot shear. With 10 to 15 knot shear out of the west over the BOC distrabance.
Shear has increased over Florida/western Atlatnic. While decreased around 20 north/70 west. Also increasing over the caribbean. And north of 15 over the central Atlatnic. Also decreasing over the western Caribbean. Which could be the first signs of the upper high.
The Gfs surface map currently shows the Azores/Bermuda high at 35 north/50 west. With a weaker high at 35 north/85 west. A trough/long wave over the east coast north of 40. At 24 hours it really shows this high building strongly over the Atlantic, with a base around 20 north over the eastern and central Atlatnic. A trough develops overthe plains/rockies at around 100 west. Which should form a weakness over the gulf. Which will likely pull up the moisture from the BOC distrabance. After that the high quickly builds over the northern gulf coast. By 36 hours the base of the high is at 15 north over the central Atlatnic. It holds this high to about 100 hours. Also with a strenthing high the eastern/central Atlatnic should see strong eastly shear.
The cmc model starts out with the same...But with a weaker shortwave going to its north. The system over the western Atlatnic moves northwestward/west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hous. The sharply gets forced back westward. The cmc builds the ridge over the southern gulf/caribbean starting around 48 hours. Both models both the Anticyclone into mexico after 100 hours. In which form a line of ULL's/tutt across the Atlatnic.
Now we got another interesting area over the western Atlatnic. With this high building in strong. The Gfs hints at a movement of this westward for the next 24 hours fellowed by a possible break around 48 hours that could track it into north Florida or GA. But also if this high holds in like it likely will do. It could send the system into southern Florida. Possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. It all has to do with how strong the long wave is.
The gfs still shows a Anticyclone forming over the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico after 3 days. Today over the western Caribbean it starts forming it as soon as 30 hours. But it forms kind of a tutt going from florida northeastward after 120 hours. Which is a line of upper level ULL's.
1# Whats going on with 94L. Is this is a trough axis with a weak v-max at 21.5 north/98 west. But I also see that this axis go northwest to southeast all the way into the deep convection. Where there might be another v-max at 20.5 under the southwestern side of the big blow up of convection. See I expect the v-max/MLC that has formed on the northwestern side of the trough axis to weaken...At the same time the convection should help to strengthen the southeastern part which is under the Convection. Which would help to bring it down to the surface. So based on the buoy to the north its not at the surface yet, but this area of convection reminds me of a few systems last 5 years that formed in the BOC. The center is at 20.5/95.5...Which is starting to loss some of its convection. Also the shear to the north has enhanced some outflow. So I give this system about a 50 percent chance at developing into something. But the thing is it doe's not went to go northward to fast.
The surface flow is from the west-northwest...Which is steering everything west-northwest over the BOC. This is caused from a surface high over the northern gulf coast. At 500 millibars the flow is more northwestward. Which means the more convection the more northward this system will likely move.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
So pretty much the low level spin over mexico is going west or west-northwest. While the area of convection over the BOC will likely go more northwestward. Also we need to watch how strong the shortwave that is coming down at around 24 hours. Which could switch the whole thing northward or more northwestward.
2# The western Distrabance deems to be a surface trough. With a weak surface low possible at 23 north/71 west. You can see on the satellite that there is one. The trough strenches northeastward to a MLC at 25 north/65 west. This area like talked about in the model discussion neeeds to be watched. But development should be slow over the next few days.
The steering flow for this system will push it to the northwest. But as the computer models shown expect a westward turn.
That is all for today hope you enjoy!
A ULL is over central Mexico at 24 north/102 west. This ULL is helping to form convection over the BOC. The subtropical Jet stream is over the northen gulf of Mexico at 28 north. Weak short wave at 30 north/100 west. ULL over Hati at 18 north/73 west...Which is making the eastern Caribbean very unfaverable. Also developing convection to its north. A anticyclone appears to have developed at 23 north/67 west. Which has formed a clockwise wind flow over the western Atlatnic distrabance.
A low pressure/ULL is centered at 45 north/75 west...With a front droping into the western Atlatnic. A second shortwave at 45 north/79 west will likely swing through main durning the next 24 hours. A Anticyclone is over the plains at around 105 west. With a shortwave moving out of the rockies at 45 north/105 west. Which is the one to watch for the BOC distrabance. The Bermuda/Azores high is clearly visible from 60 droping down at 40 west. Centered at 37 north/50 west.
The Gulf of Mexico is moisted today. And the area around the western Atlatnic distrabance is moist. East of it is very dry north of 20 to 40 west. The caribbean west of 65 is dry/unfaverable. With a small area near the leewards with moist air. South of 20 and north of 10 from 55 to the cape verdes bone dry.
From 18 to 25 north/55 to 35 west strong upper level shear. With a shear max near 20 north/42 west of 60 knots. A area of light shear of 5 to 15 knots is at 15 to 20 north/65 to 75 west. Which is over the distrabance. The Jet stream flowing over the northern gulf has 40 knot shear over northern Florida. The tutt is over the caribbean with 30 knot shear. With 10 to 15 knot shear out of the west over the BOC distrabance.
Shear has increased over Florida/western Atlatnic. While decreased around 20 north/70 west. Also increasing over the caribbean. And north of 15 over the central Atlatnic. Also decreasing over the western Caribbean. Which could be the first signs of the upper high.
The Gfs surface map currently shows the Azores/Bermuda high at 35 north/50 west. With a weaker high at 35 north/85 west. A trough/long wave over the east coast north of 40. At 24 hours it really shows this high building strongly over the Atlantic, with a base around 20 north over the eastern and central Atlatnic. A trough develops overthe plains/rockies at around 100 west. Which should form a weakness over the gulf. Which will likely pull up the moisture from the BOC distrabance. After that the high quickly builds over the northern gulf coast. By 36 hours the base of the high is at 15 north over the central Atlatnic. It holds this high to about 100 hours. Also with a strenthing high the eastern/central Atlatnic should see strong eastly shear.
The cmc model starts out with the same...But with a weaker shortwave going to its north. The system over the western Atlatnic moves northwestward/west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hous. The sharply gets forced back westward. The cmc builds the ridge over the southern gulf/caribbean starting around 48 hours. Both models both the Anticyclone into mexico after 100 hours. In which form a line of ULL's/tutt across the Atlatnic.
Now we got another interesting area over the western Atlatnic. With this high building in strong. The Gfs hints at a movement of this westward for the next 24 hours fellowed by a possible break around 48 hours that could track it into north Florida or GA. But also if this high holds in like it likely will do. It could send the system into southern Florida. Possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. It all has to do with how strong the long wave is.
The gfs still shows a Anticyclone forming over the western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico after 3 days. Today over the western Caribbean it starts forming it as soon as 30 hours. But it forms kind of a tutt going from florida northeastward after 120 hours. Which is a line of upper level ULL's.
1# Whats going on with 94L. Is this is a trough axis with a weak v-max at 21.5 north/98 west. But I also see that this axis go northwest to southeast all the way into the deep convection. Where there might be another v-max at 20.5 under the southwestern side of the big blow up of convection. See I expect the v-max/MLC that has formed on the northwestern side of the trough axis to weaken...At the same time the convection should help to strengthen the southeastern part which is under the Convection. Which would help to bring it down to the surface. So based on the buoy to the north its not at the surface yet, but this area of convection reminds me of a few systems last 5 years that formed in the BOC. The center is at 20.5/95.5...Which is starting to loss some of its convection. Also the shear to the north has enhanced some outflow. So I give this system about a 50 percent chance at developing into something. But the thing is it doe's not went to go northward to fast.
The surface flow is from the west-northwest...Which is steering everything west-northwest over the BOC. This is caused from a surface high over the northern gulf coast. At 500 millibars the flow is more northwestward. Which means the more convection the more northward this system will likely move.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
So pretty much the low level spin over mexico is going west or west-northwest. While the area of convection over the BOC will likely go more northwestward. Also we need to watch how strong the shortwave that is coming down at around 24 hours. Which could switch the whole thing northward or more northwestward.
2# The western Distrabance deems to be a surface trough. With a weak surface low possible at 23 north/71 west. You can see on the satellite that there is one. The trough strenches northeastward to a MLC at 25 north/65 west. This area like talked about in the model discussion neeeds to be watched. But development should be slow over the next few days.
The steering flow for this system will push it to the northwest. But as the computer models shown expect a westward turn.
That is all for today hope you enjoy!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
7-1-2006
The jet stream remains over the northern gulf coast...A upper level ULL at 19 north/100 west pushing slowly west-northwestward. Is helping force convection to form over the BOC/southern Gulf of Mexico. Another Ull is at 30 north/100 west. A high at least at the water vapor level is around 25/95. Which is forcing the jet stream to ridge north...Which is over the line of convection that is centered under it. Strong southwestly winds above 500 millibars are from 70 to 80 west down to 25 north. Like the models show this should slowly move out over the next 24 to 36 hours. While another drops down later on. A Anticyclone is at 20 noth/80 west...
The Azores high is centered at 25 to 40 north/60 to 30 west. While the ULL is over southeastern Canada 50 north/70 west. And a shortwave is at 47 north/90 west. Fellowed by a second one at 44 north/97 west. Which should be the reinforcing shot.
The shear maps show strong shear over the gulf coast. With the jet stream(Subtropical jet) still in place. Also a strong tutt through the the caribbean...North of 15 at 55 west. With a large shear max of 50 knots. Also another large area over the central Caribbean. Inside the jet stream over sw ga theres 60 knot shear. While all the way down to 25 north theres 40 knot shear.
The Gulf of Mexico has faverable moisture...While the Caribbean is bone dry...There really needs not be no more then that to be said. Most of the central Atlatnic is dry expect a wave at 40 to 50 west centerd at 40 west. Which is taking strong upper level shear from the tutt.
The surface flow/700 millibars shows that the two highs are bridged. With northwest flow into Texas. At 500 millibars theres a weakness at 70 to 80 west. With strong northwestly winds into texas.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
Sal
West of 50 and north of 10 theres soild SAL. Every where else is looking pretty good.
At the surface the gfs has developed the ridge nicely like forecasted. The center of the Anticyclone/Azores high is at 35 north/50 west. Which now joins the southeast united states high. This is at least at the surface layer. The upper level trough off the east coast is centered at 55 north/65 west down around 73 west/30 north. Another is centered over the midwest at 100 west. At 24 to 30 hours a shortwave/trough moves into southeastern Canada/northeastern America. In which should weaken the high at around 80 west. Making a gap into the high once again. For most of the Atlatnic a strong Azores high will have a base at 25 north. Northwestly flow into Texas will move a tropical distrabance into them...Another short wave moves through the midwest near 90 west at 60 hours. In which weakens the ridge over the gulf. After this system a large area of high pressure should develop over the central United states. While after 114 hours the Azores should agian strengthen.
The Cmc model holds a strong high at around 30 north through 24 to 48 hours. Unlike the Gfs. The second distrabance/shortwave comes out of southeastern Canada at 84 hours. In which finally breaks the high. The 500 millibar models show a trough off the east coast. Which is a weakness above the surface. Both models show this at the surface. This trough then lefts out to the northeast over the next 24 hours. While the high trys to build in. It takes intill 96 hours for another whole to even start forming. After 100 hours a 500 millibar ULL/low should move slowly southeastward into the Gulf. With upper level shear just off Texas.
The gfs 500 millibar shear makes(18,000 feet)makes the gulf into the western Caribbean very faverable after 60 to 72 hours. From 108 to 120 hours the tutt pushs back into the Eastern Caribbean.
200 millibar shear(Upper level shear) shows a the strong jet over the gulf of Mexico. With the tutt centered at 25 north/55 west. Strong upper level shear over the caribbean. It then fellows near the 500 millibar chart. But with more shear maxs.
1# The BOC system as long as theres convection theres a reason to talk about this area. Over all theres a surface trough just off the mexico coast at around 97 west. With a blow up near 23 north. But I would watch if this ever was a chance at 23 north/93 west. Which is about ready to get sheared to heck. So chances for this is slim if none. This will just be alot of rain for texas.
2# south of Cuba wave??? This wave is at 80 west(Old 93L) which needs to be watched. See 95L was made because of traporting the heat/energy to the north of the wave. A ULL or anything that can move air around can do this. In which when the Anticyclone forms over the Gulf over the next 48 hours some of this energy could get drawn into the BOC. So theres a small chance for something developing. This how Bret and Jose developed.
Special
At 13 north/129 west a system looks to becoming a tropical depression. A nice tight LLC with deep convection. Another is at 13 north/121 west. Which also looks very good. The first one is likely a depression if not a storm. The second on maybe getting close to tropical depression. The first one should run into upper level shear over the next 24 hours pass 135 west.
That is all for today...Hopefully you enjoy and comment.
The jet stream remains over the northern gulf coast...A upper level ULL at 19 north/100 west pushing slowly west-northwestward. Is helping force convection to form over the BOC/southern Gulf of Mexico. Another Ull is at 30 north/100 west. A high at least at the water vapor level is around 25/95. Which is forcing the jet stream to ridge north...Which is over the line of convection that is centered under it. Strong southwestly winds above 500 millibars are from 70 to 80 west down to 25 north. Like the models show this should slowly move out over the next 24 to 36 hours. While another drops down later on. A Anticyclone is at 20 noth/80 west...
The Azores high is centered at 25 to 40 north/60 to 30 west. While the ULL is over southeastern Canada 50 north/70 west. And a shortwave is at 47 north/90 west. Fellowed by a second one at 44 north/97 west. Which should be the reinforcing shot.
The shear maps show strong shear over the gulf coast. With the jet stream(Subtropical jet) still in place. Also a strong tutt through the the caribbean...North of 15 at 55 west. With a large shear max of 50 knots. Also another large area over the central Caribbean. Inside the jet stream over sw ga theres 60 knot shear. While all the way down to 25 north theres 40 knot shear.
The Gulf of Mexico has faverable moisture...While the Caribbean is bone dry...There really needs not be no more then that to be said. Most of the central Atlatnic is dry expect a wave at 40 to 50 west centerd at 40 west. Which is taking strong upper level shear from the tutt.
The surface flow/700 millibars shows that the two highs are bridged. With northwest flow into Texas. At 500 millibars theres a weakness at 70 to 80 west. With strong northwestly winds into texas.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
Sal
West of 50 and north of 10 theres soild SAL. Every where else is looking pretty good.
At the surface the gfs has developed the ridge nicely like forecasted. The center of the Anticyclone/Azores high is at 35 north/50 west. Which now joins the southeast united states high. This is at least at the surface layer. The upper level trough off the east coast is centered at 55 north/65 west down around 73 west/30 north. Another is centered over the midwest at 100 west. At 24 to 30 hours a shortwave/trough moves into southeastern Canada/northeastern America. In which should weaken the high at around 80 west. Making a gap into the high once again. For most of the Atlatnic a strong Azores high will have a base at 25 north. Northwestly flow into Texas will move a tropical distrabance into them...Another short wave moves through the midwest near 90 west at 60 hours. In which weakens the ridge over the gulf. After this system a large area of high pressure should develop over the central United states. While after 114 hours the Azores should agian strengthen.
The Cmc model holds a strong high at around 30 north through 24 to 48 hours. Unlike the Gfs. The second distrabance/shortwave comes out of southeastern Canada at 84 hours. In which finally breaks the high. The 500 millibar models show a trough off the east coast. Which is a weakness above the surface. Both models show this at the surface. This trough then lefts out to the northeast over the next 24 hours. While the high trys to build in. It takes intill 96 hours for another whole to even start forming. After 100 hours a 500 millibar ULL/low should move slowly southeastward into the Gulf. With upper level shear just off Texas.
The gfs 500 millibar shear makes(18,000 feet)makes the gulf into the western Caribbean very faverable after 60 to 72 hours. From 108 to 120 hours the tutt pushs back into the Eastern Caribbean.
200 millibar shear(Upper level shear) shows a the strong jet over the gulf of Mexico. With the tutt centered at 25 north/55 west. Strong upper level shear over the caribbean. It then fellows near the 500 millibar chart. But with more shear maxs.
1# The BOC system as long as theres convection theres a reason to talk about this area. Over all theres a surface trough just off the mexico coast at around 97 west. With a blow up near 23 north. But I would watch if this ever was a chance at 23 north/93 west. Which is about ready to get sheared to heck. So chances for this is slim if none. This will just be alot of rain for texas.
2# south of Cuba wave??? This wave is at 80 west(Old 93L) which needs to be watched. See 95L was made because of traporting the heat/energy to the north of the wave. A ULL or anything that can move air around can do this. In which when the Anticyclone forms over the Gulf over the next 48 hours some of this energy could get drawn into the BOC. So theres a small chance for something developing. This how Bret and Jose developed.
Special
At 13 north/129 west a system looks to becoming a tropical depression. A nice tight LLC with deep convection. Another is at 13 north/121 west. Which also looks very good. The first one is likely a depression if not a storm. The second on maybe getting close to tropical depression. The first one should run into upper level shear over the next 24 hours pass 135 west.
That is all for today...Hopefully you enjoy and comment.
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