Convection Near Bahamas

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CHRISTY

#381 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:26 am

This is from the NHC this is a change.....Things might be getting interesting.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
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dixiebreeze
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#382 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:35 am

72 hours out the low right over central Florida:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
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Rainband

#383 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:36 am

dixiebreeze wrote:72 hours out the low right over central Florida:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Bring on the rain
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fci
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#384 Postby fci » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:36 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:I think it has a chance here at developing. Could see invest 91l later today and see if recon doesn't cancel the flight out there. I think Beryl should come and be a TS Like Alberto but stall over west central Florida and dump us 15 inches of rain that we need. What are your opinions on strength of the system if it was to develop


While I appreciate your desire for a drought-buster type of rain event; we are on vacation in O-Town starting Sunday and do not want a wash out.
So, if it is OK with you; how about waiting until after July 2nd for your deluge???

Because there are pool chairs and roller coasters awaiting us!!!!

:coaster:
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#385 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:37 am

Rainband wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:72 hours out the low right over central Florida:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
Bring on the rain


I'm ready Rainband!
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#386 Postby baygirl_1 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:44 am

fci wrote:While I appreciate your desire for a drought-buster type of rain event; we are on vacation in O-Town starting Sunday and do not want a wash out. So, if it is OK with you; how about waiting until after July 2nd for your deluge??? Because there are pool chairs and roller coasters awaiting us!!!! :coaster:

Hey, we were there when Alberto paid his visit. Just get yourselves some Mickey ponchos, an umbrella, and some good water shoes (we used the Land's End ones) and go ahead with your plans!!
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Rainband

#387 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:45 am

fci wrote:
Stratusxpeye wrote:I think it has a chance here at developing. Could see invest 91l later today and see if recon doesn't cancel the flight out there. I think Beryl should come and be a TS Like Alberto but stall over west central Florida and dump us 15 inches of rain that we need. What are your opinions on strength of the system if it was to develop


While I appreciate your desire for a drought-buster type of rain event; we are on vacation in O-Town starting Sunday and do not want a wash out.
So, if it is OK with you; how about waiting until after July 2nd for your deluge???

Because there are pool chairs and roller coasters awaiting us!!!!

:coaster:
Have Fun. :D :D :D
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#388 Postby rockyman » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:47 am

My modular home is scheduled to leave south Georgia on Wednesday and arrive here on Dauphin Island Wednesday evening...it will sit on the ground (close to the Gulf) on Wednesday night and will go up on pilings (14 feet high) via crane on Thursday...I'd love any opinions on whether this system will still be around on Wednesday (either over south Georgia or in the Gomex)...If my house is flooded while it's on the ground, insurance will NOT pay for it (because we're in a flood zone and it's not yet elevated). Thanks for any input...I'm not quite ready to stress-out...but I'm getting close. :)
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CHRISTY

#389 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:49 am

From ACCUWEATHER....

The Storm near the Bahamas Could Turn Tropical.
By Meteorologist Matthew Rinde.


A system to the north of the Bahamas may bear watching over the next couple of days. A storm in the area will attempt to become more tropical in nature during the next couple of days. Shear continues to affect the storm's strengthening, but this should relax later Friday. At this point it will be the best chance for the storm to change to more tropical features. Either way this system is expected to move toward the coast and inland later this weekend into early next week. Tropical moisture is feeding into the overall flow of the weather pattern. This means that heavy rain is likely across much of the eastern U.S. into next week
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#390 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:05 am

fci wrote:.


I highly doubt this sytem would be still approaching fl come july 2nd. Im sure if anything was to come through florida it would be sun- early next week wed or so. Wish i could hold it off until your vacation was done. I don't have the ability to control weather. Have a great time anyway.
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#391 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:07 am

rockyman wrote:My modular home is scheduled to leave south Georgia on Wednesday and arrive here on Dauphin Island Wednesday evening...it will sit on the ground (close to the Gulf) on Wednesday night and will go up on pilings (14 feet high) via crane on Thursday...I'd love any opinions on whether this system will still be around on Wednesday (either over south Georgia or in the Gomex)...If my house is flooded while it's on the ground, insurance will NOT pay for it (because we're in a flood zone and it's not yet elevated). Thanks for any input...I'm not quite ready to stress-out...but I'm getting close. :)


i would be more concerned about a future wind event and your modular home then a weak low in the bahamas right now.
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CHRISTY

#392 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:08 am

There is probably still just a surface trough with two maxes on it and a couple of corresponding mid-level lows.conditions are only marginal for development aloft,but changes over the past few days have been very subtle,with maybe a trend of some slow organization.
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#393 Postby stormtruth » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:08 am

CHRISTY wrote:This is from the NHC this is a change.....Things might be getting interesting.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.


Yes. It sure is a change. Although the last NHC comments were a change as well even though some did not think so.
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#394 Postby Stratusxpeye » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:09 am

Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Upper-level winds in the Atlantic Basin are rendering any tropical cyclone genesis unlikely over the next day or so. That being said, a cluster of showers is currently just north of the central Bahamas. There is no indication of a surface low at this time and surface pressures are high. This is simply an upper-level low, and winds aloft continue to be hostile for any further development. The area is expected to drift toward the coast of the Southeast over the next few days. This could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is also free from any organized tropical activity.

TWC's Statement made this morning regarding the system.
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CHRISTY

#395 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:11 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Upper-level winds in the Atlantic Basin are rendering any tropical cyclone genesis unlikely over the next day or so. That being said, a cluster of showers is currently just north of the central Bahamas. There is no indication of a surface low at this time and surface pressures are high. This is simply an upper-level low, and winds aloft continue to be hostile for any further development. The area is expected to drift toward the coast of the Southeast over the next few days. This could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is also free from any organized tropical activity.

TWC's Statement made this morning regarding the system.


well i will go with the NHC sayin this area has becoming a bit better organized. :wink:
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NBCintern

#396 Postby NBCintern » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:17 am

I just need to know if this thing is going to be over Daytona JULY 1ST.
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#397 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:17 am

Well Houston got more rain than they needed,but we here in North texas are still drought stricken.We need some tropical moisture to flow our way :(
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#398 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:23 am

CHRISTY wrote:
Stratusxpeye wrote:Matthew Newman, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Upper-level winds in the Atlantic Basin are rendering any tropical cyclone genesis unlikely over the next day or so. That being said, a cluster of showers is currently just north of the central Bahamas. There is no indication of a surface low at this time and surface pressures are high. This is simply an upper-level low, and winds aloft continue to be hostile for any further development. The area is expected to drift toward the coast of the Southeast over the next few days. This could bring some much-needed rainfall to the region.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is also free from any organized tropical activity.

TWC's Statement made this morning regarding the system.


well i will go with the NHC sayin this area has becoming a bit better organized. :wink:


Don't forget the last part of the NHC's statement. They basically say the same thing as TWC:

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE
AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
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#399 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:24 am

CHRISTY wrote:
NBCintern wrote:I just need to know if this thing is going to be over Daytona JULY 1ST.


the track of what ever this area becomes is up in the air...but i will say somewere in florida is a good bet.


If you think it will be:

NORTH FLORIDA CALL: 1 - 800 - NORTHFL
CENTRAL FLORIDA CALL : 1 - 800 - CENTRALFL
SOUTH FLORIDA CALL: 1 - 800 - SOUTHFL
GEORGIA CALL: 1 - 800 - GEORGIA
CAROLINAS CALL: 1 - 800 - CAROLINAS

P.S. None of these phone numbers work, so don't bother calling!!!
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NBCintern

#400 Postby NBCintern » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:25 am

HURAKAN wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
NBCintern wrote:I just need to know if this thing is going to be over Daytona JULY 1ST.


the track of what ever this area becomes is up in the air...but i will say somewere in florida is a good bet.


If you think it will be:

NORTH FLORIDA CALL: 1 - 800 - NORTHFL
CENTRAL FLORIDA CALL : 1 - 800 - CENTRALFL
SOUTH FLORIDA CALL: 1 - 800 - SOUTHFL
GEORGIA CALL: 1 - 800 - GEORGIA
CAROLINAS CALL: 1 - 800 - CAROLINAS

P.S. None of these phone numbers work, so don't bother calling!!!


lol, so why are ou giving it.....
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