TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
TWD and TWO - Please post the latest here.
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cycloneye
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- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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AXNT20 KNHC 220013
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS N OF THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS NOTED PARTLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N27W 7N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 12W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-51W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
88W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N93W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 21N. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
21N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
71W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N76W. ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.
$$
FORMOSA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IS N OF THE ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS NOTED PARTLY DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20
KT. STRONG WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE WAVE IS
STILL AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N27W 7N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 12W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 26W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-51W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
88W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N93W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 21N. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF
21N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA TO INCLUDE LAKE MARACAIBO FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
71W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N76W. ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.
$$
FORMOSA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 220213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220850
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
AXNT20 KNHC 221038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE 13N56W-10N61W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY
CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 5N31W 7N49W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
44W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING
OVER THE W ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING
N OVER THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N86W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W
AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N69W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N73W-26N69W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 17N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR
S AS 13N FROM 31W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINS FROM
30N45W TO BEYOND 33N43W OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W
OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN
LAYERED OF AFRICAN DUST NOW COVERS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 35W-60W.
$$
WALLACE
ABNT20 KNHC 220850
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
AXNT20 KNHC 221038
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE 13N56W-10N61W AND WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ANY
CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 5N31W 7N49W 6N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
44W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN THE COAST
OF AFRICA AND 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDING
OVER THE W ATLC...FAR SE US...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PUSHING
N OVER THE FAR S GULF S OF 24N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N86W ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W
AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ALONG SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N69W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N73W-26N69W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM S OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 17N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N44W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR
S AS 13N FROM 31W-60W. WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINS FROM
30N45W TO BEYOND 33N43W OUT OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W TO NEAR 10N40W
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W
OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIN
LAYERED OF AFRICAN DUST NOW COVERS A SMALLER PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 35W-60W.
$$
WALLACE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
404
ABNT20 KNHC 221518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
ABNT20 KNHC 221518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 221751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 21W
SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 10N21W. AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-23W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF THE MAIN AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND NE HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THE NE PORTION OF BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 6N40 7N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 55W-57W JUST BEHIND
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE STATE OF
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS. AS OF 1500
UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N94W TO 18N95W. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGE ALONG THE N GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W
AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG
81W. DRY AIR IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S AND SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 24N76W TO 32N71W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
ALONG 32N50W 26N55W 20N60W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ARE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1036 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS
THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 44W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD ARE OF
AFRICAN DUST EAST OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE U.S. ALSO AFFECT THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO
BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N45W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM
35W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC.
$$
GR
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 21W
SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR 10N21W. AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-23W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56/57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS E OF THE MAIN AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 20N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
AND NE HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND THE NE PORTION OF BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 6N40 7N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 20W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 55W-57W JUST BEHIND
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. INCLUDING THE STATE OF
FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W. THE BROAD UPPER
HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS. AS OF 1500
UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N94W TO 18N95W. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGE ALONG THE N GULF COAST WILL
WEAKEN AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W
AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG
81W. DRY AIR IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
S AND SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER
THE N CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 24N76W TO 32N71W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW IS
ALONG 32N50W 26N55W 20N60W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER AREA OF MAINLY SHOWERS
IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ARE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1036 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS
THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 44W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD ARE OF
AFRICAN DUST EAST OF 55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SE U.S. ALSO AFFECT THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 76W. THE
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT N AND NARROW OVER THE W
ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-76W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO
BEYOND 32N63W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N45W WITH THE UPPER FLOW AS FAR S AS 13N FROM
35W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC.
$$
GR
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
ABNT20 KNHC 222118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 222118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 222327
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
NEAR 11N23W. AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N23W 4N35W 4N40W 7N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N89W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SW FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 81W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 95W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA WHERE
SELY FLOW IS NOTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E
GEORGIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 23N...WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 23N. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 69W-72W...AND OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-79W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N73W 24N74W DRIFTING W. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
67W-72W. A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N40W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-65W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER N FLORIDA AND
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 80W. A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N9W.
$$
FORMOSA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
NEAR 11N23W. AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70/90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-13N. REMAINDER OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N23W 4N35W 4N40W 7N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N89W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER SW FLORIDA FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 81W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 95W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA WHERE
SELY FLOW IS NOTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER E
GEORGIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 23N...WHILE ABUNDANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 23N. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 69W-72W...AND OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 74W-79W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N85W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 32N73W 24N74W DRIFTING W. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEMS HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
67W-72W. A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 43N40W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-65W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER N FLORIDA AND
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 80W. A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N
OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N9W.
$$
FORMOSA
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cycloneye
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ABNT20 KNHC 230204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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CHRISTY
000
AXNT20 KNHC 230633
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
59W/60W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MORE
PRECIPITATION COMES WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W
AND 85W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 9N23W 8N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N4W 3N8W 6N11W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N15W 8N21W
8N24W 3N41W 6N51W 9N59W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N113W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CENTER NEAR 20N109W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N106W IN NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER IS
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF 24N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 24N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
59W/60W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND FROM 12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND
91W...SPILLING INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34N72W 28N73W 20N73W.
THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF NEAR
25N75W JUST OFF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. WEAKENING SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N68W TO 25N58W TO 34N59W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 36N48W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW TO 28N49W 20N50W 15N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W...AND
FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N8W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF
25N EAST OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 29N25W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 230633
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
JUST THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
59W/60W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF MORE
PRECIPITATION COMES WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 83W
AND 85W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...AND FROM 10N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 8N13W 9N23W 8N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N4W 3N8W 6N11W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N15W 8N21W
8N24W 3N41W 6N51W 9N59W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N113W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CENTER NEAR 20N109W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N106W IN NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER IS
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF 24N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 24N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
59W/60W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND FROM 12N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND
91W...SPILLING INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 82W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34N72W 28N73W 20N73W.
THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF NEAR
25N75W JUST OFF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. WEAKENING SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ALSO ARE SEEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 21N68W TO 25N58W TO 34N59W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 36N48W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW TO 28N49W 20N50W 15N56W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W...AND
FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N8W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF
25N EAST OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 29N25W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W.
$$
MT
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485
ABNT20 KNHC 230859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
ABNT20 KNHC 230859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 231105
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 631W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W
AND 87W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE
PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 8N23W 7N28W 5N42W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N15W 7N27W 6N35W 5N46W 10N61W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N114W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CENTER NEAR 20N110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF 23N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MORE
AND IS REALLY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE BELIZE
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO
34N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A
FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT
OFF NEAR 26N74W ABOUT 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO
26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 36N47W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 28N48W
17N49W 13N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W...
AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN
NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF 25N EAST
OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W.
$$
MT
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W MOVING WEST 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 631W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 14N85W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W
IN THE BIGGEST AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SMALLER AREAS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W
AND 87W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND ALONG THE
PANAMA COAST FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 7N12W 8N23W 7N28W 5N42W 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N
BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N15W 7N27W 6N35W 5N46W 10N61W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N114W TO A SECOND WEAKER LOW
CENTER NEAR 20N110W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER MEXICO WITH THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR MEXICO. ONE SMALL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
IN EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N99W...AND A SECOND SMALL LOW CENTER
IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF 23N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. A FAINT HINT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
62W/63W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W. THIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THE SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MORE
AND IS REALLY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE BELIZE
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED AND WEAKENED. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO
34N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A
FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT
OFF NEAR 26N74W ABOUT 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO
26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 36N47W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 28N48W
17N49W 13N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W...
AND FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W...AND NORTH OF 32N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN
NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFRICA NORTH OF 25N EAST
OF 21W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 30N24W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA NEAR 10N60W...PART OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...ROUGHLY ALONG 11N EAST OF 60W.
$$
MT
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N73.5W OR ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH
SATURDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING BELIZE AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N24W 7N35W 6N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80/100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-43W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. AND THE N GULF. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE IS ALONG THE N COAST TO OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 23N96.5W TO
20N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND SAT AS THE CURRENTLY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS MOVES W-NW FROM THE W ATLC TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THE
WEEKEND.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
SECOND ONE IS ALONG 85W/86W ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN
NICARAGUA AND DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE
SE PORTION OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND
SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH...
IS ALONG 31N54W 26N61W 21N66W. AN AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 58W-63W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN
AROUND 80 NM BEHIND THIS FEATURE FROM 23N-25N. ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1035 MB HIGH
LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 25N65W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.
$$
GR
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N73.5W OR ABOUT 200
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH
SATURDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING BELIZE AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N24W 7N35W 6N50W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80/100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-43W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FOUND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 10W-15W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE SE U.S. AND THE N GULF. THE
BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALSO DOMINATES SOUTH
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE IS ALONG THE N COAST TO OVER TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 23N96.5W TO
20N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND SAT AS THE CURRENTLY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS MOVES W-NW FROM THE W ATLC TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THE
WEEKEND.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
SECOND ONE IS ALONG 85W/86W ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR CABO GRACIAS A DIOS IN
NICARAGUA AND DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WEST/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE
SE PORTION OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND
SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH...
IS ALONG 31N54W 26N61W 21N66W. AN AREA OF SCATTRED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 58W-63W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND WITHIN
AROUND 80 NM BEHIND THIS FEATURE FROM 23N-25N. ANOTHER AREA OF
MAINLY SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1035 MB HIGH
LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE/UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CUBA. UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W TO 25N65W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 25W
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC.
$$
GR
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 232118
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY FALL BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY FALL BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AXNT20 KNHC 240017
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 26W-31W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 66W/67W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 8N30W 5N45W 6N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W... AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 14W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W... AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S ALABAMA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 87W-90W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF THE SAME SIZE IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W.
FURTHER S...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 22N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 22N WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS S OF
22N. EXPECT ACTIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W...IS OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W TO INCLUDE LAKE
MARACAIBO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
31N50W TO 27N60W 21N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 57W-67W. A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N39W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 10W-65W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-30W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO
NEAR 34N4W.
$$
FORMOSA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N74W OR ABOUT 330
MILES EAST OF FLORIDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 26W-31W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 66W/67W
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W... SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 8N30W 5N45W 6N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W... AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 14W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W... AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W.
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S ALABAMA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 87W-90W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER TINY CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF THE SAME SIZE IS OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W.
FURTHER S...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 22N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 22N WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS S OF
22N. EXPECT ACTIVE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER N FLORIDA TOMORROW FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION... NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-81W...IS OVER
N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W TO INCLUDE LAKE
MARACAIBO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS ABOVE. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
31N50W TO 27N60W 21N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 57W-67W. A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N39W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 10W-65W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS ARE STILL SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN
70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N47W. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
20W-30W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO
NEAR 34N4W.
$$
FORMOSA
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
-
CHRISTY
ABNT20 KNHC 240209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146196
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABNT20 KNHC 240902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE EXTREME
NORTHERN BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
AXNT20 KNHC 241100
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
67W/68W MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN
65W AND 68W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W
AND 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
OCCURRING IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N86W.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER LAND IN
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20N.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N13W 8N21W 8N29W 7N33W 5N41W 6N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
16W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND
20W...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N21W 8N32W
4N43W 4N51W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N EAST OF 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N117W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
20N112W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH
THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANY THE 25N98W
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THE 25N98W
LOW CENTER TO THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 22N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
69W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 89W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE OVER LAND IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED
WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
INTERIOR COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W IN
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA OF
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
THE COLOMBIA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DUE TO THE ITCZ...NOT SURE.
THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA OVER THE WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. THE FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W IS CYCLONIC...WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N76W...FORECAST TO REACH THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY
24 HOURS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N47W. THE TROUGH
RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 24N41W 18N45W 15N51W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 27N EAST
OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 27N25W.
$$
MT
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE EXTREME
NORTHERN BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
AXNT20 KNHC 241100
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO JUST
THIS WAVE. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
67W/68W MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN
65W AND 68W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING IN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W
AND 66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
OCCURRING IN VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 16N86W.
THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER LAND IN
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS SIX HOURS AGO
HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 20N.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 9N13W 8N21W 8N29W 7N33W 5N41W 6N55W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
16W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND
20W...WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N21W 8N32W
4N43W 4N51W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N EAST OF 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM LOW CENTER JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 31N117W TO A SECOND LOW CENTER NEAR
20N112W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO WITH
THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N105W IN NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANY THE 25N98W
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THE 25N98W
LOW CENTER TO THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF 22N IS ANTICYCLONIC...WITH
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 23N.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
69W WITH COMPARATIVELY NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 89W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE OVER LAND IN NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS
SIX HOURS AGO HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED
WITH THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 85W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
INTERIOR COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W IN
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA OF
VENEZUELA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.
THE COLOMBIA THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE DUE TO THE ITCZ...NOT SURE.
THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA OVER THE WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. THE FLOW NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W IS CYCLONIC...WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N76W...FORECAST TO REACH THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY
24 HOURS. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ELEUTHERA LOW CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 20N66W TO 26N88W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH INFLUENCE THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS NEXT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 33N47W. THE TROUGH
RUNS FROM THIS LOW TO 24N41W 18N45W 15N51W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 27N EAST
OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR RUNS FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 27N25W.
$$
MT
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