91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[wxman57]

What I'd be more worried about, and perhaps something that is more likely again this season, is another repeat of the 2004 and 2005 seasons with a landfalling Cat 3 storm bringing in a Cat 5 surge..... Ivan had a pretty impressive surge in 2004 and Katrina was unprecedented.... so you don't have to have a Cat 5 at landfall, but being a Cat 5 and then weaking to a Cat 3 in the GOM as it approaches land is just as bad from a surge standpoint.... last two seasons proved that

Actually, the fact that both Katrina and Ivan were much stronger prior to landfall did not have that much of an effect on the eventual storm surge. I saw a talk by a surge expert at the NHC. He re-ran the surge calculations for Katrina and Ivan assuming they were the same intensity offshore as at landfall and the surge height difference was only a few feet. What makes a bigger difference than the SS categorhy is the Radius of Maximum winds and the extent of the stronger wind field. Remember, SS just looks at peak winds that could occur only in a TINY part of the hurricane. Just being a Cat 5 doesn't mean anything with respect to the potential surge. Have to look at the entire wind field.

[cpdaman]

well this sets up to be something rather intresting for those from south florida northward to the carolina's

looks like showers and t'storms are already off the coast of melbourne pinwheeling south south west from one of the "failed LLC's"

for the record i think the LLC is trying to form on the EAST side of the flare up of convection 200 east of the NW bahamas
I think i can find a few people who can see this (wether thunderstorms will wrap around a LLC today is another story)

SST are 82 or so degrees in the area of the storm, which is decent but no mid upper 80's that i can find

what are the capacities of a storm forming here (worst-case scenario)

ANYONE

[boca]

How do they expect landfall in 48 hours on a system that hasn't moved all week. Its just sitting and spinning.

[Rainband]

Here's a new visible shot with sfc obs and eddies located. I don't think this has much chance of making it beyond weak TS prior to moving ashore in 48 hours or less. Just not very favorable conditions aloft. Only a rain threat:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl2.gif

Good Bring on the rain

[Windtalker1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html I think the center will be found around 71/24....comments? If this is the case, South Florida is not out of the woods.

[bigmoney755]

can someone give me a link where the get the ships model and the other models that give intensity forecasts? This is the only one I have http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[HURAKAN]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Check it out!!!

[Stormcenter]

What I'd be more worried about, and perhaps something that is more likely again this season, is another repeat of the 2004 and 2005 seasons with a landfalling Cat 3 storm bringing in a Cat 5 surge..... Ivan had a pretty impressive surge in 2004 and Katrina was unprecedented.... so you don't have to have a Cat 5 at landfall, but being a Cat 5 and then weaking to a Cat 3 in the GOM as it approaches land is just as bad from a surge standpoint.... last two seasons proved that

Actually, the fact that both Katrina and Ivan were much stronger prior to landfall did not have that much of an effect on the eventual storm surge. I saw a talk by a surge expert at the NHC. He re-ran the surge calculations for Katrina and Ivan assuming they were the same intensity offshore as at landfall and the surge height difference was only a few feet. What makes a bigger difference than the SS categorhy is the Radius of Maximum winds and the extent of the stronger wind field. Remember, SS just looks at peak winds that could occur only in a TINY part of the hurricane. Just being a Cat 5 doesn't mean anything with respect to the potential surge. Have to look at the entire wind field.

So what you are saying is don't just look at the top winds but the size of the storm too?

[Noles2006]

Not necessarily the size of the storm, but the size of the wind field.[/quote]

[boca]

I agree 100% but its at the mid levels looking at that sat pic it looks like thats the main one moving WSW.

[cpdaman]

nope 27.5 72.5 IMO

[Stormcenter]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Check it out!!!

That is still a mess.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231400Z JUN 06//
WTNT 21 KNGU 231500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.3N 72.1W TO 28.0N 76.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.0N 73.3W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241500Z.
//



Tropical Cyclone formation aleret issued



Graphic

[Frank P]

What I'd be more worried about, and perhaps something that is more likely again this season, is another repeat of the 2004 and 2005 seasons with a landfalling Cat 3 storm bringing in a Cat 5 surge..... Ivan had a pretty impressive surge in 2004 and Katrina was unprecedented.... so you don't have to have a Cat 5 at landfall, but being a Cat 5 and then weaking to a Cat 3 in the GOM as it approaches land is just as bad from a surge standpoint.... last two seasons proved that

Actually, the fact that both Katrina and Ivan were much stronger prior to landfall did not have that much of an effect on the eventual storm surge. I saw a talk by a surge expert at the NHC. He re-ran the surge calculations for Katrina and Ivan assuming they were the same intensity offshore as at landfall and the surge height difference was only a few feet. What makes a bigger difference than the SS categorhy is the Radius of Maximum winds and the extent of the stronger wind field. Remember, SS just looks at peak winds that could occur only in a TINY part of the hurricane. Just being a Cat 5 doesn't mean anything with respect to the potential surge. Have to look at the entire wind field.

So what you are saying is don't just look at the top winds but the size of the storm too?

Then wxman57 what you are saying is that we were basically approaching the max surge levels associated with Katrina, regardless of wind speed at landfall, due to her size and movement... this could be a good thing to know because I have been wondering what the max surge I could ever expect to get in my area... Had Katrina came in at 175mph in lieu of 125 I would have expected to get more than a couple of feet of additional water... but that's what the NHC surge expert was basically implying... so instead of 25-26 ft surge, I could have gotten 27-28 feet... I'm building my new house at 28 feet so hopefully I'm above the worse case surge for my area... one can only hope... thanks

[HURAKAN]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

Check it out!!!

That is still a mess.

Agree. Let see if tomorrow we will find a better looking system!!!

[wxman57]

What I'd be more worried about, and perhaps something that is more likely again this season, is another repeat of the 2004 and 2005 seasons with a landfalling Cat 3 storm bringing in a Cat 5 surge..... Ivan had a pretty impressive surge in 2004 and Katrina was unprecedented.... so you don't have to have a Cat 5 at landfall, but being a Cat 5 and then weaking to a Cat 3 in the GOM as it approaches land is just as bad from a surge standpoint.... last two seasons proved that

Actually, the fact that both Katrina and Ivan were much stronger prior to landfall did not have that much of an effect on the eventual storm surge. I saw a talk by a surge expert at the NHC. He re-ran the surge calculations for Katrina and Ivan assuming they were the same intensity offshore as at landfall and the surge height difference was only a few feet. What makes a bigger difference than the SS categorhy is the Radius of Maximum winds and the extent of the stronger wind field. Remember, SS just looks at peak winds that could occur only in a TINY part of the hurricane. Just being a Cat 5 doesn't mean anything with respect to the potential surge. Have to look at the entire wind field.

So what you are saying is don't just look at the top winds but the size of the storm too?

Right, you need to look at the size of the stronger wind field. Just because a hurricane might have Cat 5 winds over a few square miles doesn't make much of a difference in terms of storm surge. But if a Cat 3 hurricane has 74+ mph winds extening 100 miles from the center, then it'll produce a much larger storm surge. Bottom line, it's the size of the stronger wind fields that produces the surge, not the peak wind that may occur only in a small area.

[boca]

Guess the land destination for our Bahama system and win a cruise to the Bahamas. Only kidding.

[wxman57]

Then wxman57 what you are saying is that we were basically approaching the max surge levels associated with Katrina, regardless of wind speed at landfall, due to her size and movement... this could be a good thing to know because I have been wondering what the max surge I could ever expect to get in my area... Had Katrina came in at 175mph in lieu of 125 I would have expected to get more than a couple of feet of additional water... but that's what the NHC surge expert was basically implying... so instead of 25-26 ft surge, I could have gotten 27-28 feet... I'm building my new house at 28 feet so hopefully I'm above the worse case surge for my area... one can only hope... thanks

Well, it all depends on the wind field size. If Katrina had a tiny area of Cat 5 winds at landfall, then the surge would not have been much different from what it produced as a Cat 3. But if Katrina had Cat 5 winds in all quadrants extending out 30 miles, then it could have proudced a significantly larger surge than it did as a Cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS

[cpdaman]

forget about wait till tomorrow to see if it looks better organized

are u blind the NHC already said it is already better organized

the storm is sitting about 300 miles east of fort pierce i know people are trying to act calm "wait till tomorrow" but u know u will be staring at the satellite loops all day and night, especially with the NHC becoming more agressive by the hour with there statements favoring development