91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[StJoe]

double bah

[Stormcenter]

The HPC doesn't think this will amount to much except for rain.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VALID 12Z MON JUN 26 2006 - 12Z FRI JUN 30 2006


TROPICS...
MULTICENTERED CIRCULATION SYSTEM E OF THE BAHAMAS TO BRING IN
TOWARD THE GA COAST AN INVERTED TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE CONNECTION ON ITS ERN SIDE WHICH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE
ERN CONUS TROF WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE INTERIOR EAST COAST.
AN EWD SPIN UP AT THE SFC ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER OFF THE
BAHAMAS OCCURS ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND TURNS UP ALONG 60W. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE
CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS AND CANADIAN CLEARLY
INDICATING A WARM CORE SYSTEM ENHANCED BY THE VERY LARGE STRONG
HIGH TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. HPC AND TPC COORDINATION AGREE TO
DOWNPLAY THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS.

[Evil Jeremy]

back on topic!!!

[cycloneye]

23/1745 UTC 26.8N 73.7W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[whereverwx]

It is a very notable feature....

[Derek Ortt]

HPC is discussing the prospects of the other system

[mvtrucking]

Quickscat from 8:36 am (descending pass)

Link: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

[MGC]

Sure does look like this thing is well on its way to becoming a TC. Looks to be drifting WNW. Probable threat to NE FL, GA, SC.......MGC

[skysummit]

HPC is discussing the prospects of the other system

....and what are they saying?

[Damar91]

The local internet news site is saying that the system is "clipping" along at 5 to 15 knots. What?!?!? This thing is barely moving at all.

[Stormcenter]

HPC is discussing the prospects of the other system

What other feature off the Bahamas are you referring to? I thought there was only one?

MULTICENTERED CIRCULATION SYSTEM E OF THE BAHAMAS TO BRING IN
TOWARD THE GA COAST AN INVERTED TROF WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE CONNECTION ON ITS ERN SIDE WHICH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE
ERN CONUS TROF WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE HEAVY RAINS
ALONG THE INTERIOR EAST COAST.
AN EWD SPIN UP AT THE SFC ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER OFF THE
BAHAMAS OCCURS ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND TURNS UP ALONG 60W. ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE
CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPMENT WITH GFS AND CANADIAN CLEARLY
INDICATING A WARM CORE SYSTEM ENHANCED BY THE VERY LARGE STRONG
HIGH TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. HPC AND TPC COORDINATION AGREE TO
DOWNPLAY THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060623 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060623 1800 060624 0600 060624 1800 060625 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.1N 74.0W 27.3N 75.5W 27.7N 77.3W 28.0N 79.0W
BAMM 27.1N 74.0W 27.2N 75.5W 27.7N 77.3W 28.0N 78.9W
A98E 27.1N 74.0W 27.2N 74.4W 27.5N 75.8W 27.8N 77.3W
LBAR 27.1N 74.0W 27.1N 74.7W 27.5N 75.8W 28.1N 76.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060625 1800 060626 1800 060627 1800 060628 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.5N 80.7W 30.3N 83.5W 35.0N 83.6W 40.6N 82.4W
BAMM 28.6N 80.6W 30.4N 83.2W 34.0N 83.1W 37.8N 82.0W
A98E 28.1N 78.8W 30.0N 79.8W 33.7N 78.2W 40.4N 77.2W
LBAR 28.9N 77.9W 32.1N 79.2W 38.4N 77.5W 49.4N 71.7W
SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 58KTS 60KTS
DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.1N LONCUR = 74.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 73.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Tropical Model plots.

[BreinLa]

Gosh I don't read the boards for half a day and poof an investigation. Guess we'll be busy this weekend

[southerngale]

HPC is discussing the prospects of the other system

What other feature off the Bahamas are you referring to? I thought there was only one?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86034






Btw, where are all the MOTM nominations? You people are SLACKING!!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85948

[cpdaman]

so the ships and dships says 40 knts at 48 hours and the Dships infers landfall between 48-72 hours between 40-52 knts

i know this is in the formative stages and this is just a prediction

also what the hell is going on NORTH EAST of puerto rico

[wxman57]

Quickscat from 8:36 am (descending pass)

Link: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

The time stamp on this image (purple lettering on the bottom) says 2325Z yesterday.

[cycloneye]

so the ships and dships says 40 knts at 48 hours and the Dships infers landfall between 48-72 hours between 40-52 knts

i know this is in the formative stages and this is just a prediction

also what the hell is going on NORTH EAST of puerto rico

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 34&start=0

[Seele]

I'm supprised, but the GFDL doesn't intensify this system at all on the 12z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/invest91l/fcst/archive/06062312/1.track.png

[Damar91]

Any chance part of that other system by Puerto Rico influences Invest 91 at all? It is pretty close.

[wxman57]

Here are some other model runs, mostly 18Z. Initial track forecasts are in good agreement. Looks reasonable with a deepening trof approaching the east coast by Sunday evening. I think we're looking at a weak, sheared TS at worst, maybe 40-50 mph winds at landfall.