91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

canegrl04 · #281 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:25 pm

CRAP.If this developes into Beryl and enters the GOM... :blowup:

#282 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:29 pm

Just watched Bob Breck on NOLA's FOX8 news. He said there's no way this gets into the gulf. He showed the trough that's digging down and is supposed to get all the way to the gulf....he said this is VERY unusual for late June (the strong trough, that is). He also said if this does actually cross Florida and get into the gulf, it wouldn't have any time because the trough would shoot it off like a rocket.

(he didn't actually say "shoot it off like a rocket", but he did make the noise) :lol:

Opal storm · #283 Postby **Opal storm** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:30 pm

skysummit wrote:Just watched Bob Breck on NOLA's FOX8 news. He said there's no way this gets into the gulf. He showed the trough that's digging down and is supposed to get all the way to the gulf....he said this is VERY unusual for late June. He if this does actually cross Florida and get into the gulf, it wouldn't have any time because the trough would shoot it off like a rocket.

(he didn't actually say "shoot it off like a rocket", but he did make the noise)

I agree,this isn't going to the Gulf.

canegrl04 · #284 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:31 pm

Bob Breck?Isn't he the weather dude that always says 'don't worry that cane isn't coming here'? :roll:

He was a guest on our local Fox channel in Dallas after Katrina

#285 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:32 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Bob Breck?Isn't he the weather dude that always says 'don't worry that cane isn't coming here'? He was a guest on our local Fox channel in Dallas after Katrina

Yup...he's the one that said there was no way Katrina would get into the gulf :lol:

southerngale · #286 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:33 pm

skysummit wrote:Just watched Bob Breck on NOLA's FOX8 news. He said there's no way this gets into the gulf. He showed the trough that's digging down and is supposed to get all the way to the gulf....he said this is VERY unusual for late June (the strong trough, that is). He also said if this does actually cross Florida and get into the gulf, it wouldn't have any time because the trough would shoot it off like a rocket.

(he didn't actually say "shoot it off like a rocket", but he did make the noise)

I know what he meant and I agree...just thought it was kinda funny. No way it gets into the Gulf, but if it does...

Btw, only 25 minutes to get your MOTM nomination in!
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85948

CHRISTY · #287 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:37 pm

On my hurricane alley account it is showing that 91L has jogged west today.

#288 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:38 pm

skysummit wrote:Just watched Bob Breck on NOLA's FOX8 news. He said there's no way this gets into the gulf.

That probably means it will. :lol:

The tropics have surprised me too many times in the past for me to take my eyes off this little one!

#289 Postby **tgenius** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:39 pm

CHRISTY wrote:On my hurricane alley account it is showing that 91L has jogged west today.

Christy..think we'll at least get some rain from this in Miami?

#290 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:40 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

Shows the low in North Central Bahamas

The Hurricaner · #291 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:42 pm

tgenius wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:On my hurricane alley account it is showing that 91L has jogged west today.

Christy..think we'll at least get some rain from this in Miami?

Local 10 met Don Noe said for here most rain will come tomorrow and some monday. Yes, some rain.

#292 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:51 pm

Bob just showed his VIPIR again pointing out the front dropping south. Right now we have some really strong thunderstorms over the area. When he showed the front dropping south, he also showed the thunderstorms reforming over the gulf. What he did not show though....and you could clearly see it on VIPIR, was a low pressure system forming in the central gulf near the area of forecasted thunderstorms.

(of course that's his Vipir model, so I wouldn't put too much faith in it)

Aquawind · #293 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:58 pm

Anything on the west side of the eventual center will likely get very little rain. Most of the dry air is on the west side( thanks CHRISTY) and it will most likely be sheared and lopsided like many weak systems.

When it merges with the front is when the rain really gets busy. I am not holding my breath for rain here in SW Fla. This time of year with our dewpoints we can get 3 inches at anytime just popcorn style.

#294 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:59 pm

I just plotted the mid-level steering flow (10,000 to 20,000 ft) for Sunday afternoon and Monday morning:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl4.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl5.gif

As you can see, if the GFS forecast is correct, then it would be quite difficult for this disturbance to get into the Gulf. And if it somehow managed to cross into the NE Gulf late Sunday, then it should be picked up and accelerated to the north as the upper trof digs into the region. Bottom line is that upper winds are not really favorable for development.

However, due to the proximity to land, I suspect the NHC will call it TD 2 by 4pm CDT tomorrow so that local officials can activate their emergency plans just in case a threat develops.

The Hurricaner · #295 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:02 pm

Does that upper low over SF bring us rain? Well i know it'll rain a little bit...

#296 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:03 pm

I am seeing a broad surface low in this general area. I could be wrong looking at the visible loops it looks like that is where the broad low is. Not trying to look at a particular circulation.

Aquawind · #297 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:03 pm

However, due to the proximity to land, I suspect the NHC will call it TD 2 by 4pm CDT tomorrow so that local officials can activate their emergency plans just in case a threat develops.

I think with intensity uncertainties that would be reasonable if RECON has any supporting data..

Sorry about the weekend..maybe you can still squeeze a ride in..

CHRISTY · #298 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just plotted the mid-level steering flow (10,000 to 20,000 ft) for Sunday afternoon and Monday morning:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl4.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/beryl5.gif

As you can see, if the GFS forecast is correct, then it would be quite difficult for this disturbance to get into the Gulf. And if it somehow managed to cross into the NE Gulf late Sunday, then it should be picked up and accelerated to the north as the upper trof digs into the region. Bottom line is that upper winds are not really favorable for development.

However, due to the proximity to land, I suspect the NHC will call it TD 2 by 4pm CDT tomorrow so that local officials can activate their emergency plans just in case a threat develops.

so what can u tell me bout this graphic....landfall is south of what your pointing out.

#299 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:06 pm

But 91L is really devoid of the convection that would be necessary to take it to the next level. Until I see that happening I don't see much of a future for it. From the MIA disco they have the upper level low pushing west from it's current convection. Perhaps that may give it the ventilation that it needs to enhance convection closer to the broad circulation. But, then again I could be wrong.

#300 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 6:07 pm

so what can u tell me bout this graphic....landfall is south of what your pointing out.

That is the 12Z forecast so we'll have to wait for the upadated one.

91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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