91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cpdaman]

someone look at the infared tell me where they think the center is

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

the dry air is slowly ebating westward but there appears to be too much shear for t'storms to flare up IMO

[cycloneye]

23/2345 UTC 25.7N 75.0W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Nothing new here.

[CHRISTY]

guys check this out.....

[no advance]

Looks as good as it ever has looked. Just no convection where the cdo needs to be. Seems to be moving west very slowly. Have a nice wkend and hope for some rain.

[johngaltfla]

I think looking at short term loops might deceive you. Give this storm another 24 hours and you'll see some development. I think we might just see Beryl in about 36 to 48 hours at the most. Impact will be minimal, but nonetheless, we're on another record pace. Especially with the train moving off Africa already and concerning me that August through September could be especially violent this year.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like the center is begining to get convection...amybe im looking at the wrong part

[Noah]

Can someone post a spaghetti model link? Thanks.. oh.. when do you guys think this invest will effect sarasota..if at all.. Im going to be in Mt Dora this weekend. Thanks

[CHRISTY]

what are u guys thought on this......

[wxman57]

it looks like the center is begining to get convection...amybe im looking at the wrong part

Definitely begging for something, maybe a quicker death?

Here's the 18Z GFDL. Very similar to the BAM models into NE FL then north up the front.

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 23

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.8 74.1 275./ 1.9
6 26.8 75.1 269./ 8.5
12 27.2 75.7 304./ 6.9
18 27.7 76.6 302./ 9.2
24 28.2 77.4 298./ 9.0
30 28.3 78.6 273./10.4
36 28.9 79.6 301./10.3
42 29.3 80.1 309./ 6.2
48 29.6 81.2 287./10.6
54 29.9 81.9 288./ 6.2
60 30.3 82.7 299./ 8.2
66 30.6 83.2 304./ 5.4
72 31.5 83.3 352./ 8.2
78 32.2 83.1 18./ 7.4
84 33.0 82.7 24./ 9.0
90 34.2 82.0 30./12.9
96 35.8 80.6 42./19.8
102 38.1 79.1 33./26.5
108 40.3 77.6 34./24.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 108 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060624 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 0000 060624 1200 060625 0000 060625 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.4N 74.7W 27.7N 76.3W 28.2N 78.1W 28.7N 79.8W
BAMM 27.4N 74.7W 27.7N 76.5W 28.2N 78.2W 28.8N 80.0W
A98E 27.4N 74.7W 27.8N 75.6W 28.2N 77.1W 28.7N 78.6W
LBAR 27.4N 74.7W 27.8N 75.8W 28.5N 76.9W 29.3N 78.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 0000 060627 0000 060628 0000 060629 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 81.5W 32.2N 84.3W 37.2N 84.9W 43.1N 82.1W
BAMM 29.6N 81.5W 32.4N 83.9W 36.8N 83.5W 41.5N 80.1W
A98E 29.4N 79.9W 33.0N 80.1W 38.9N 77.4W 49.7N 73.8W
LBAR 30.5N 78.8W 34.6N 78.7W 41.7N 76.2W 50.3N 66.9W
SHIP 39KTS 53KTS 60KTS 61KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 74.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 73.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The BAM model plots at 00:00z.DSHP does not have it as a Tropical Storm.

[Trader Ron]

Whenever they forecast 4-6 or 4-8 inches of rain for Southwest Florida, it never comes to fruition.

[cheezyWXguy]

according to radar it looks like the upper low is destroying the center...im still kinda new so correct me if im wrong...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

P.S. i maybe looking in all the wrong places...where is the center(s)?

[cheezyWXguy]

i wish i were getting this

[hiflyer]

Looks like a good rain event for Florida may be developing with this and with minimal steering letting this just basically drift west or north of west. Interesting plot showing 6 inches over this area. Definitely guess this will enhance the meeting Sat night at the Deck...grin

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84746

[jlauderdal]

Geez....they've been saying the exact same thing since this morning.

when not much happens in 12 hours thats what you get. as far as i can tell its doing exactly what the smart money thought it would by now, not too much. the conditions are marginal at best but that shoudl change. m. watkins talked about all this last night and said saturday would be the day of interest and that is how its panning out. so everybody can sleep well tonight because not much is going to happen until tomorrow.

[CHRISTY]

this thing is not looking very good right now but i just wanted to post this graphic...

PROBABILTY OF 50 MPH WINDS FORM 91L....

[no advance]

It seems to be moving west alittle faster. Strange way to develop Upper low turning into a td?

[skysummit]

Geez....they've been saying the exact same thing since this morning.

when not much happens in 12 hours thats what you get. as far as i can tell its doing exactly what the smart money thought it would by now, not too much. the conditions are marginal at best but that shoudl change. m. watkins talked about all this last night and said saturday would be the day of interest and that is how its panning out. so everybody can sleep well tonight because not much is going to happen until tomorrow.

Yup...pretty boring system right now. This weekend will make the difference to see if it's a go or not. Like you said, all they do is pretty much cut and paste on a system like this.

[Regit]

what are u guys thought on this......

Ok, so minimal impact is expected on the coast, but once it gets inland it becomes a Cat 1/2 and persists until Canada? Or am I just colorblind?

[cheezyWXguy]

i was thinking the same thing