91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[SouthFloridawx]

MIA disco

000
FXUS62 KMFL 240124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
924 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.UPDATE...QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS WHICH MODEL DO YOU BELIEVE?
BOTH GFS AND NAM DEVELOP SURFACE LOW FROM THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THEY THEN DRIFT THIS LOW
TOWARDS THE CENT FLA COAST BY 12Z SAT WHICH BACKS THE WINDS TO THE
NW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS WOULD TEND TO CUT OFF THE SHRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATL WATERS WHICH ARE NOW HEADED FOR E CST. THE
RUC KEEPS THIS AS A BROAD LOW AND SO KEEPS THE NE FLOW OVER THE
ATL WATERS WITH DRAINAGE PATTEREN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND MASS.
THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP SHRA GOING OVER THE WATER BUT THEN ONLY A
FEW AT BEST REACHING THE E CST AND NOTHING OVER THE INTERIOR OR W
CST. THE WRF BLENDS THE THREE AND THINK AT THIS POINT IS PROBABLY
THE BEST SOLUTION. WHAT THIS IMPLIES IS THAT THE NE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ATL AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAINLAND
WITH SLIGHT LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. SO WILL
ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY AND LOWER POPS TO NEAR ZERO INTERIOR AND
SW CST WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG E CST. SO WILL ALSO NEED
TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TOO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
THINKING. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS DEEP NE FLOW CONTINUING
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT STILL DRY ALOFT.
CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN HELP FOR THE DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS OVER
THE MAINLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEAR CALM WINDS.

[whereverwx]

Until this thing has a definite center, it’s going to be “Pin the Tail on the Donkey” for the models…

[boca]

Let it rain Sun and Mon not tomorrow its my son's birthday at the pool and theirs a 70% chance of thunderstorms but I don't see that happening by looking at the speed of this thing and lack of convection on the SW side which South Florida would be on.

[boca]

This sytem looks like its falling apart this evening, lets see if their anything left their in the morning.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

[gtalum]

Ugh I hope Miami doesn't see much tomorrow. I'm flying to Las Vegas from Tampa connecting in Miami tomorrow evening.

[CycloneCarl]

This over 24 hr multispectral animation shows the overall circulation pattern quite well:


Vis=red, IR=green, WV=blue
Click the thumbnail for a full resolution QuickTime movie version.

The system seems to be struggling, and will probably require the moisture (blue haze) to wrap right around the broad low to exclude the dry air if it is to do much, however it seems to be running out of time.

[skysummit]

The problem with 91L tonight, IMO, is even though upper level wind conditions are much more favorable then they were yesterday, there's an ULL sitting right above and just to the southwest of the broad low level swirl. There is absolutely no lower level convergence, and no upper level divergence. I can't see any convection firing tonight. Maybe tomorrow might be different, but I think all will be quiet for the next many hours, if not forever with 91L.

[Ivan14]

Even though it looks bad right now I say it will develop to TD 2 tomorrow. Lets not say it is over until it really is over. Remember what Alberto did.

[no advance]

Not really sure what to make of this system. Unusual. Seems like it is beginning to make alittle comeback. Sure looked dismal about two hours ago. Just east of Hope Town Abacos there seems like a buildup of convection. Just watched the weather station he said there is no west winds in the Bahamas reported so there still in no LLC. I say watch the area I mentioned. Could get more interesting in a few hours.

[whereverwx]

Here's a loop (AVI format [7.0 mb!] (you can control/stop it )) of the system from Jun22 0015Z - Jun24 0415Z. Click here

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The overall Atlatnic is much less faverable then it was last year. All the waves east of 50 are south of 8 right now. Very very unfaverable. I really I'm happy to have forecasted 15 named storms.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Matt its only June who knows how things are going to be come July. august, Sept., and so on!

[Rainband]

The overall Atlatnic is much less faverable then it was last year. All the waves east of 50 are south of 8 right now. Very very unfaverable. I really I'm happy to have forecasted 15 named storms.

That was premature to say the least

[no advance]

Even fifteen is alot. Ask Dixie ten yrs ago there was not a whole lot to talk about. We have been spoiled of recent. Who knows what is going to happen with this Bahama system Until the ULL loses strength I doublt anything at the surface can spin up. One plus for the system there has been an increase in moisture over Fl.

[Cyclenall]

The overall Atlatnic is much less faverable then it was last year. All the waves east of 50 are south of 8 right now. Very very unfaverable. I really I'm happy to have forecasted 15 named storms.

This doesn't have anything to do with the Invest at all. I don't know where you got the idea that the Atlantic is much less favorable then last year, because I think 2005 is rubbing on 2006 a bit so far (funny wording there). Does anyone have a shear map from last year at this time? Same with the water temps, thanks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It maybe a little premature, and 15 named storms is not a quit season by any word. But yes the SST's are cooler over most of the Atlatnic. Last year had more or less the warmest overall Atlatnic sea surface temperatures ever. Also waves as early as late May where moving into the caribbean. One thing against last year which is not looking much better is upper level shear/SAL. A few weeks ago I thought that it might be a little better but the trend is not looking good. 1# ULL are forming deep into the central to eastern Atlatnic.

In which the Itch is at 8 north right now...Last year the caribbean was much more faverable.

On this years side is a super hot loop current...In I'm not saying that this is not going to be active or deadly. Just confirming what I thought in March and again in May.

[Thunder44]

The convection trying to fire up now looks really meager. I don't see this system developing further this morning.

[Ivan14]

It is starting to look a tad bit better. still not healthy looking.

[Thunder44]

From look at obs and Ir-2 imagery. It looks like it has a closed surface circulation now just east of the Great Abaco Island moving WNW. However the convection around it looks meager. It's been entraining quite a bit dry air overnight. It won't become a TD until convection increases around the center.

[cycloneye]

91L is not longer being considered as a special feature at the 8 AM discussion that may mean,they are less interested in the system this morning,which you can read at the TWO,TWD thread.