MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/WRN NJ/FAR NRN DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546...
   
   VALID 230349Z - 230415Z
   
   WW 546 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...OR MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY
   BY THE LOCAL WFO...GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS ALL BUT
   ENDED.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 546 /PA COUNTIES OF YORK AND
   LANCASTER/ WHICH IS IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW
   WEAKENING ALONG THE PA/NJ BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE...AND
   THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
   
   39767704 40227647 40477575 40907534 41057492 40787471
   39877474 39527547

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN VA...MD...DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231441Z - 231615Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN NRN VA...MD AND DE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
   CNTRL VA. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S F AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND
   ORGANIZE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL
   ALLOW THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY. WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE REGION
   SUGGEST SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AS
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATE THIS MORNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. ALTHOUGH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...HAIL COULD ALSO BE A
   THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
   
   37567667 37267746 37047838 37537901 38237915 38847836
   39177732 39537625 39417541 38517490 37977550

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA...TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231552Z - 231715Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS A LINE OF STORMS
   MOVES EWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN...NRN AL AND NW GA 0VER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
   FROM NRN AR EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO CNTRL KY. SOUTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE INSTABILITY
   WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION ALLOWING THE LINE TO PERSIST INTO THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXISTING FROM NRN AL
   EXTENDING NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 7.0
   C/KM ALONG THIS AXIS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34078512 33908779 34928823 36008731 35918484

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC...NW SC...FAR NE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231709Z - 231845Z
   
   AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM
   WV INTO CNTRL KY AND WRN TN. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...A STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN THE 2000
   TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL FUEL THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
   STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM IN PLACES. THIS MAY
   ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   35417995 34668097 34268239 34658381 35718342 36578139
   36348003

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MA/CT/RI/SOUTHEAST NY/SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHERN
   VT/NJ/EASTERN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231731Z - 231930Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NY/NJ/EASTERN PA. WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT CUMULUS FIELD DEEPENING OVER THE
   PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR
   FROM SOUTHEAST NY ACROSS MA AND SOUTHERN NH. A MOIST/UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   NY/PA/NJ...WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS COMMON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH MODIFIED 12Z ALBANY/LONG ISLAND/CHATHAM OBSERVED
   RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE REGION...WITH MLCAPES VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS
   1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING/DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF
   30-35 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
   
   43397209 43397119 43207067 42587110 41917111 41507181
   41357268 40747334 39977429 39597494 40017585 41487541
   42277401 42687301

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE/CNTRL SD...SE ND AND NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231805Z - 231930Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY. LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19-20Z ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNWWD FROM WRN IA
   INTO ERN SD AND SE ND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F. AS TEMPS
   WARM INTO THE 80S F ACROSS NE SD AND SE ND...MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ALLOWING THE STORMS TO CONTINUE
   INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC
   ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING TOWARD THE REGION AND SHOULD
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35
   KT SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP LAPSE
   RATES AND THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   45669969 46779825 47159693 46809605 46119601 45239698
   44199835 43789949 43870035 44280066 44870055

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NRN TX...FAR SW AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231901Z - 232030Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX AS
   STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WSWWD FROM
   CNTRL AR INTO NCNTRL TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
   ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-TROUGH
   JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG VORTICITY MAX SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR AND RUC
   ANALYSIS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH
   WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BEGINNING
   TO STEEPEN ALONG AN AXIS FROM NE TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE OKC
   AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33389424 32299634 32009767 32519838 33879847 35429774
   34439450

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD...FAR ERN WY...WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 231935Z - 232100Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z ACROSS
   THE REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD FROM CNTRL KS INTO
   WRN NEB AND SWRN SD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F. MLCAPE VALUES ALONG
   THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND INSTABILITY
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...SWRN SD AND IN THE HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW...A
   40-50 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER NRN WY WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
   REINFORCING THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   MAKE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   41220228 41290414 42410498 43570426 44130219 43300075
   42130077

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/CENTRAL-ERN SD/WRN-SRN MN/NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...548...
   
   VALID 232228Z - 240000Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
   FROM SERN ND/CENTRAL-ERN SD THROUGH WRN/SRN MN TO NRN IA.
   
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN/NRN IA
   WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ EXTENDING FROM
   SERN ND SSEWD INTO NWRN IA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL
   WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN WITHIN
   NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  ASCENT WITH THESE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30-40 KT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION AIDING IN A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER
   INCLUDING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SEWD OF WW/S 547 AND 548.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/23/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
   
   43090146 45460036 45880035 46329948 46599889 47219843
   47179602 47449481 46779472 45299424 43799345 43149287
   42429324 42069459 42839753 42889871 42970161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SWRN SD/MUCH OF WRN NEB/NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549...
   
   VALID 240101Z - 240230Z
   
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 03Z FOR PARTS OF WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL WY INTO NWRN NEB/
   SWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE THIS EVENING AND EVOLVE INTO A
   FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE 18Z
   NAM/21Z RUC WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. LATEST MCCOOK NEB PROFILER AND WSR-88D VAD AT GLD SHOWED AN
   INCREASE IN SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 20-25 KT.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN
   THIS LLJ IS PROGGED THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINTAINING
   AN INFLUX OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THIS DEVELOPING MCS
   OVER FAR ERN WY/NWRN NEB.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SERN WY.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO AID IN NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ONGOING CLUSTER
   GROWS UPSCALE THROUGH THE EVENING.  40-50 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
   ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE ATOP INCREASING SELY LLJ WILL RESULT IN
   MORE THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   RESULTANT THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   41030366 41670449 42790492 43990458 43820351 43350099
   42999918 42129876 40719878 39999895 39809941 39660079
   39850207 40430339

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0917 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SWRN-SRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...
   
   VALID 240217Z - 240315Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE VALID PART OF WW 547 WILL
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS SRN MN AND A
   LARGER COMPLEX...THOUGH NOT TOO STRONG...MOVING SEWD THROUGH SERN
   SD.  LOW LEVEL WAA/ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF A SSWLY LLJ THAT
   EXTENDS INTO SERN SD SHOULD AID IN MAINTAINING THIS LATTER COMPLEX
   OF STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS INDICATED
   A DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THE SE SD ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST HOUR
   WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE DECREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43100156 45929993 45879585 45229467 43959474 42839620
   42029670 41959755 42139813 42499857 42949939

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...
   
   VALID 240438Z - 240545Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z ALONG LEADING
   EDGE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NEB.  CURRENT
   TRENDS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REACH THE LBF
   VICINITY BY 05Z WITH THE LINE OF STORMS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM ERN
   FRONTIER TO WRN SHERMAN COUNTIES BY 06Z.
   
   AT 430Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS
   EXTENDED FROM KEITH COUNTY TO BLAINE COUNTY AND WAS MOVING SEWD
   AROUND 40 KT.  THE SRN EXTENT HAD A FASTER STORM MOTION GIVEN THE
   CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRENGTHENING WRN KS SLY LLJ WHICH HAS NOW
   INCREASED TO 30 KT PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VADS AND PROFILER DATA.
   ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE DUE TO
   SURFACE COOLING...COLD POOL WITH THIS COMPLEX AND INCREASING SLY LLJ
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY
   AND THE SEWD MOVEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
   
   40350165 40410267 41180258 41240159 41580093 42690006
   42649912 41709827 40269829 40290059

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SWRN NEB THROUGH N CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240523Z - 240630Z
   
   MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF S CNTRL
   NEB INTO NCNTRL KS NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
   TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA
   SHORTLY.
   
   MCS OVER W CNTRL NEB IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 40 KT. A 30 KT SSWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET VEERING TO NWLY 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
   VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS INTO N CNTRL KS WHERE
   MUCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST CINH FOR
   PARCELS LIFTED FROM NEAR 850 MB.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   40280021 40199784 39269736 38799846 39290008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551...
   
   VALID 240807Z - 240930Z
   
   SEWD MOVING MCS OVER N CNTRL KS IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING S OF WW
   551. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO A
   PORTION OF CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...EXPECTED OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
   STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
   NEEDED S OF 551.
   
   MCS IS MOVING SWD THROUGH N CNTRL KS AT AROUND 35 KT. STORMS ARE
   BEGINNING TO MOVE S OF THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
   KS. AS THE MCS CONTINUES SWD IT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH WEAKER STORM
   RELATIVE INFLOW AND LESS INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   FOR A WHILE LONGER...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
   HOUR OR SO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. HOWEVER...A
   GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH SWD EXTENT INTO KS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39780034 39809920 40179798 39039770 38539882 38890064

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...NRN VA...SE PA...DE...NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241658Z - 241830Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR CT SWWD TO WV WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
   NEAR 70 F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND CELLS ARE
   INITIATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
   NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM
   SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38177942 38327967 38537999 39347957 40347749 40847602
   40827491 40167448 39727494 39237583 38467789 38217893

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NE SD...SW MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241713Z - 241845Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE LEADING VORTICITY CENTER
   NOW MOVING TOWARDS WRN MN.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
   SCNTRL MN FROM A SFC LOW OVER SWRN MN. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
   CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM ERN ND EXTENDING SEWD INTO SCNTRL MN WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
   WEAK CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION BUT THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME
   SFC-BASED. IN ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ARE IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL MULTICELL
   LINES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   45559853 46059966 46580035 47230006 47379894 46979734
   46519598 45569351 45049309 44719317 44319396 44669585
   45189745

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241730Z - 241900Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   CELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS
   SCNTRL MN INTO NRN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI. SFC DEWPOINTS
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS FROM NE MN EXTENDING SWD
   THROUGH WI INTO ERN IA. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING AND CELLS
   ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN
   WI. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
   THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
   WCNTRL MN APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 30-40 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   AND/OR SHORT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   43889101 44279157 45029176 45669139 46009084 46218960
   45798821 45008763 44308788 43768837 43578909 43558959
   43669022

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241756Z - 241930Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   STRONGER PULSE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND FROM THE ERN
   COAST. WSR-88D VWPS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 10 TO 15 KT
   SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY PULSE IN NATURE. THE
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM BY MID-AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
   BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS. MARGINAL
   WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR MERGING CELLS AND/OR OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...
   
   26478206 26858233 27808253 29098286 29788224 29438119
   27388024 26358005 25678009 25218031 25078047 25278113
   25788163

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...NRN AL AND NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241815Z - 241945Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE TN AND MID-MS VALLEY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   ENEWD FROM SRN AR INTO ERN TN. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F
   AND POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
   AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND AN UPPER-TROUGH MOVES
   EWD ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WSR-88D VWP IN MEMPHIS
   CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT SUGGESTING MARGINALLY
   SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.5 C/KM BY MID-AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   33939017 34869188 36099110 35378895 34818695 34238428
   33148396 32778489 33138721 33408860

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT SAT JUN 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NW IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241904Z - 242030Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
   SRN MN INTO NRN WI FROM A SFC LOW IN SW MN. SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY IN ERN IA AND SRN WI ARE IN THE MID 60S F. IN
   ADDITION...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM NEAR DES
   MOINES IA TO NEAR MADISON WI. A STRONG LINE SEGMENT IS ONGOING ALONG
   THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN FAR ERN IA WITH SEVERAL CELLS INITIATING IN
   ERN IA. THE LA CROSSE WI WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAKER SHEAR SWWD ACROSS IA.
   THIS SUGGESTS THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL
   LINE SEGMENTS. RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL
   POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER ERN IA AND
   NW IL WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   42498883 40789123 40689242 41479316 42689184 44028966
   43588846 43088834