NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Jelawat (0602)

[cycloneye]

No,this is not for the Bahamas area but for a system at the Western Pacific. It does not look great at all.

[Coredesat]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 134.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS PULSING
CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[P.K.]

MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 1015UTC JUN. 23 2006=
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=
SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC JUN. 23=
FORECAST VALID 0600UTC JUN. 24=
WARNING=
NIL=
SUMMARY=
FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTH AND CENTER
PARTS OF YELLOW SEA AND WEST AND SOUTH PARTS
OF JAPAN SEA AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 10KM=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH
PART OF YELLOW SEA AND NORTH PART OF EAST CHINA
SEA AND KOREA STRAIT=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTH
PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND SEA
WEST OF SUMATERA AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA
AND MAKASSAR STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA
AND ARAFURA SEA AND SULAWESI SEA=
WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER JAPAN
SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER SEA
NORTHWEST OF SUMATERA=
SE WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SEA NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF AUSTRALIA=
FORECAST=
FOG OVER CENTER AND SOUTH PARTS OF YELLOW SEA AND
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM=
WINDS FROM 8 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER NORTH
PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=
SE WINDS FROM 8 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER
SEA NORTHEAST OF AUSTRALIA=

[Coredesat]

This is slightly old, but still appears to be a good estimate:

23/0833 UTC 8.2N 131.7E T1.0/1.0 92W

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 240600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 998 HPA
AT 46N 159E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 47N 162E.
WARM FRONT FROM 47N 162E TO 47N 164E 46N 168E.
COLD FRONT FROM 47N 162E TO 43N 161E 40N 157E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 157E TO 34N 147E 32N 142E 32N 137E 32N 130E
33N 123E 30N 115E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 35N 141E
42N 143E 46N 152E 60N 163E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 165E 30N 150E 30N
140E 33N 133E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 34N 147E ENE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 128E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 39N 136E ESE 10 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 36N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 49N 165E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 164E TO 52N 168E 52N 172E.
WARM FRONT FROM 52N 172E TO 49N 177E 46N 180E.
COLD FRONT FROM 52N 172E TO 46N 169E 41N 162E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 162E TO 37N 154E 33N 147E 32N 137E 34N 125E
30N 114E.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 35N 140E
41N 140E 46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 30N 180E 30N 165E 30N
150E 30N 140E 33N 133E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 37N 154E ENE 25 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 126E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 40N 137E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 35N 180E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 133.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS PULSING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 53N 173E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 40N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 160E TO 41N 164E 41N 169E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 160E TO 35N 157E 33N 155E 32N 151E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 133E 35N 140E
42N 143E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 38N 180E 30N 160E 30N
135E 33N 133E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 122E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 25N 141E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 40N 145E ESE 20 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 36N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 111E TO 31N 120E 34N 129E 32N 140E 33N 145E
32N 151E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Cyclenall]

Is this not a tropical storm already?

Link: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

This site says it's Tropical Storm DOMENG. It was at 48 Knots last night according to typhoon2000. It's made landfall and it's pressure was at 994 mb.

[P.K.]

It is not even a TD officially. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

The latest Met Area bulletins give the estimated central pressure of this low at 1008hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 251200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 992 HPA
AT 56N 175E BERING SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 41N 162E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 41N 162E TO 42N 165E 41N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 162E TO 37N 160E 33N 155E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 33N 134E 35N 140E
42N 142E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 165E 60N 180E 36N 180E 30N 160E 30N
136E 33N 134E.
SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 12N 123E WNW 10 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 35N 124E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 54N 141E EAST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 26N 142E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 40N 147E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 178E EAST SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 112E TO 30N 115E 31N 120E 32N 125E 34N 130E
32N 135E 32N 140E 33N 147E 32N 150E 33N 155E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Aslkahuna]

PAGASA gave the name Domeng to the system as it was in their area of responsibility and there was a circulation. The winds they had on it were probably high but the system did cause significant rains over the northern Visayas which resulted in some lahar flows off Mt. Bulusan. The circulation seemed stronger in the mid levels.

Steve

[CycloneCarl]

Is this not a tropical storm already?

Link: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

This site says it's Tropical Storm DOMENG. It was at 48 Knots last night according to typhoon2000. It's made landfall and it's pressure was at 994 mb.

It has crossed the Philippines and PAGASA has named it as a TS and is issuing storm warnings based on ground truth observations (perhaps plus a safety factor).

Note that PAGASA has it's own naming system which is essential for it's public warning system as even a TD can be a disaster there, and if JMA gets around to giving it a name it will be different - JMA is notorious for underestimating the strength of systems in this area.

[Aslkahuna]

Our WPAC Invest is now a TCFA and based upon the latest satellite imagery it won't be long before it's a TD as the convection is consolidating around the center that is reforming near Lubang Island after crossing the Philippines. Still some land interaction in the NE Quad but that should end as the system pulls further out into the SCS.

Steve

[SouthFloridawx]

Hope Senorpepr stays safe.

[HURAKAN]

Looks really good!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoo its been nearly a month!

[P.K.]

It is a TD now (No numbers for them in this area remember).

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 15.0N 115.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT

[HURAKAN]

THE THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS HERE, SAYS JTWC.

[P.K.]

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.5N 118.2E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[P.K.]

THE THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS HERE, SAYS JTWC.

Just to let you know I make this the 3rd as well based on the JMA. Its all irrelevant though as if it gets upgraded it will have the number 0602.