INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[JamesFromMaine2]

NAVY Site[/url]

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go!

[Aquawind]

Yeow they have a itchy invest finger.. musta been a mosquito.. A low was forecast to develop on the wave by TAFB on earlier runs.. I imagine it will show again this evening.

[cjrciadt]

That was quick I just look less than an hour ago.

[Swimdude]

Now we await Cycloneye to make the thread "official."

I think this one may have a better chance than our other 2.

[Tampa_God]

This will be the next name storm. Wait for another 36 hours and we will see a TD. Count my words.

[JamesFromMaine2]

could be sooner then 36 hours! It started getting my attention lastnight b/c it was looking really good and it just keeps getting better!

[rockyman]

How long until this system is over the Islands?

Also, is the Caribbean going to be any more favorable when 93L arrives? Right now, strong westerlies will obliterate anything that comes into the Caribbean.

[P.K.]

ABNT20 KNHC 252104
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IS ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER LAND.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING SYSTEM AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

[JamesFromMaine2]

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING SYSTEM AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Well its developing even if the NHC doesn't want it to unless something major happens in the next few days to prevent it from developing!

[Swimdude]

Anyone have a shear map of the Caribbean?

[Aquawind]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1845.shtml?

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N33W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 50W GIVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NE ATLC NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

[whereverwx]

Interesting system...

[Aquawind]

Anyone have a shear map of the Caribbean?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

[wxwatcher91]

Despite the fact that none of these are developing any further or that conditions arent very conductive for development, is it very common to have THREE invests at one time in June? I cant remember invests springing up like this even last season.

[mtm4319]

7.2N and 42.8W wasn't looking as good as its neighbor to the northeast this morning, so I'm surprised that this is the one getting an invest.

Here's the shear map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is fairly low in the area where it currently is. But either it will run into the Venezuelan/Guyanan coast, or pull up WNW into areas of 30 knots or greater shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

Steering patterns - with the current patterns, the wave/disturbance will be skirting the north coast of South America, then turning NW toward Hispaniola.

[stormtruth]

I cannot handle this many invests.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Today:



In 48 hr:

[/img]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So quite a bit of shear over the Carribean Sea.

[rockyman]

The 12z global models indicate that the upper level trough over the Caribbean (which is causing very high westerly shear) should be much weaker in 72 hours, just as 93L is entering the Caribbean. Still looks like a pocket of less-than-ideal conditions will persist south of Hispaniola...but if the system is already well-established, it should be able to survive and make it to the western Caribbean intact.