91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

IMO that carib system looks better than 91L.

[cpdaman]

maybe this could help
u see what there talkin bout

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

watch the canaveral east bouy's weather go downhill rapidly as that swirl (developing low pressure) off fort pierce moves north north east

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy mother of god! It back from the dead.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Holy mother of god! It back from the dead.

[shaggy]

i am not liking the NHC wording of a POSSIBLE low forming and riding the gulfstream towards the carolinas.The rivers here have just dropped back below flood stage and we have had a couple of days of spotty heavy rain.At this stage IF anything did develop and move this way it would not take a big system to do alot of minor damage.The ground is soaked so trees would fall with even a moderate TS and any rainfall is bad at this point.We are already over 10 inches for the month.This is of course all based on the NHC wording and the slight possibility something forms!

[Thunder44]

918
WHXX01 KWBC 261820
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 0600 060627 1800 060628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 80.9W 30.9N 80.0W 34.2N 78.9W 38.2N 77.2W
BAMM 28.6N 80.9W 30.7N 79.9W 33.5N 78.6W 36.4N 76.9W
A98E 28.6N 80.9W 30.0N 79.9W 32.3N 78.6W 35.1N 77.0W
LBAR 28.6N 80.9W 30.5N 80.0W 33.6N 79.2W 37.6N 78.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 1800 060630 1800 060701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 43.1N 74.4W 50.8N 61.4W 50.0N 42.3W 43.2N 29.2W
BAMM 39.8N 74.4W 46.5N 66.9W 51.0N 55.0W 50.9N 40.3W
A98E 38.6N 75.2W 46.9N 71.4W 54.9N 56.7W 48.9N 31.9W
LBAR 42.6N 76.9W 52.1N 58.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 56KTS 59KTS 48KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 35KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 80.9W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 27.9N LONM12 = 81.7W DIRM12 = 119DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.9N LONM24 = 80.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

I can't tell if the low is over water or over land.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Now looking at this SAT pic the low looks like it is over water right now and the circulation in this Invest is very evident.

[weatherbee1982]

I do not know what circulation you guys are seeing. All of my products are not indicating anything of a circulation in association with this convection on the east side of FL. What I am seeing is an ULL on the near the west side of the FL peninsula, which would provide uplift for convection on it's NE and E quadrants (which it is). But circulation at the low, mid or high levels off the east coast of FL, no.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

It may be my imagination, but is it just me or does 91L look better organized?

[Tampa_God]

It still has life?

I don't see a LLC

[Weatherfreak14]

its looking way better organized

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Here's the visible pic. That is pretty good organization with this system right now, to the east and west of this system you can see the banding features associated with the Invest and the center of the storm has more cloud cover over it. IMO this could be Beryl by tomorrow morning or afternoon.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I was quite shocked when I checked in on the net a few hours. Yesterday I wrote this system off in my own mind. I felt it was dead, buried and had a tombstone resting atop it. Now it seem to have found new life, very interesting little bugger.

[ThunderMate]

If this thing developesthen it will come right over my house with me getting the east side....Regardless of developing or not it looks a lot better now than it ever did!

[webke]

Looking at the satellite views I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a squeeze play, between the Bermuda high and the Low over the midwest, either way i see a lot of rain coming but I do not see how a TD could form with all the outside influences forcing it to move into cooler waters. However everyones view is always welcome.

[wxman57]

I've plotted recent surface obs across the southeast U.S. and offshore waters, analyzed where the low center is, and indicated streamlines on the map below:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91L.gif

Note that the center of the very weak (1009mb) low is over south-central Georgia this evening, not out over the water. Pressures increase to 1012-1014mb to the east of Florida and Georgia. So there is little or no chance of tropical development, just more heavy rain for the southeast as the disturbance tracks across the Carolinas, Virgina, and eventually PA/NY over the next few days.

Also: Note that the models (18Z) initialized this low way to the south near 28.7N/81.2W, where there is no evidence of any LLC and pressures are about 3mb higher than in southern GA.

[Jam151]

Wow do you guys think this can develop? At least it isn't in the gulf!

[wxman57]

Wow do you guys think this can develop? At least it isn't in the gulf!

Absolutely not. Just means rain for the Atlantic coast next 2-3 days.