Possible Future Development in the NW Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

Well folks I will go out on a limb on this one because none of the models are picking up on anything at this time. I've been studying the area of broken convection in the SW Caribbean sea. I think there is actually a chance of some slow development over the next week in the NW Caribbean sea for these reasons. I am thinking more towards the end of this week (5-7 days down the road):

Why?

1) A trough is digging down into the GOM that will help pull the energy in the SW Caribbean sea into the NW Caribbean sea over the next few days but the trough won't be strong enough to shunt this moisture NE so it will linger around in the NW Caribbean.
2) UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W so UL winds are becoming more favorable.
3) There is weak tropical wave at 77W/78W and south of 20N that is moving west that should help increase the convection and add to the energy in this area over the next few days.
4) There was a weak low a storm2k member located near Belize over the weekend so pressures are generally running relatively low across the area.
5) It's climatologically favored this time of year.

Thoughts?

[dixiebreeze]

Convection has been pretty consistent there and I agree there is a chance of development. Plus, it's an area of opportunity this time of year.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

I've been watching it too. Looks pretty good and has more convection that both of are Invests. IMO this thing could be 94L.

[dixiebreeze]

Caribbean getting more interesting as the day goes on:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Caribbean getting more interesting as the day goes on:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

GFS is now picking up on some weak low in the SW Caribbean but I was thinking more NW Caribbean:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=120hr

[curtadams]

GFS predicts pretty brutal shear over the Caribbean for the next week. The subtropical jet is still strong and southerly. No opportunity for tropical cyclones. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

GFS predicts pretty brutal shear over the Caribbean for the next week. The subtropical jet is still strong and southerly. No opportunity for tropical cyclones. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

I wouldn't lay so much trust in those shear map predictions...

[gatorcane]

can we get a floater on the NW Caribbean please? Is it possible?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree that something should develop over the next week, and I think the Caribbean influence will play a big part, but I think the development will happen in the GOM, not the NW Caribbean. My feeling is that something should develop in the BOC or western Gulf and then be steered toward Mexico or Texas. This is also in agreement with JB from accuweather.

Either way though, something should spin up soon.

[gatorcane]

I agree that something should develop over the next week, and I think the Caribbean influence will play a big part, but I think the development will happen in the GOM, not the NW Caribbean. My feeling is that something should develop in the BOC or western Gulf and then be steered toward Mexico or Texas. This is also in agreement with JB from accuweather.

Either way though, something should spin up soon.

Interesting you say that. My predicition is that something will brew in the NW Caribbean by the end of this week and then as the trough moves out a big Bermuda High is forecasted to build in and so the area in the NW Caribbean will move into the central/western GOM....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree that something should develop over the next week, and I think the Caribbean influence will play a big part, but I think the development will happen in the GOM, not the NW Caribbean. My feeling is that something should develop in the BOC or western Gulf and then be steered toward Mexico or Texas. This is also in agreement with JB from accuweather.

Either way though, something should spin up soon.

Interesting you say that. My predicition is that something will brew in the NW Caribbean by the end of this week and then as the trough moves out a big Bermuda High is forecasted to build in and so the area in the NW Caribbean will move into the central/western GOM....

It is possible it could start in the NW Caribbean (if it can battle the shear), but the end result will likely be for it to move into the Central or Western Gulf (as you said). Either way, this whole area really bares watching over the next week.

[Yankeegirl]

A Bear Watch!!!

[gatorcane]

convection is still maintaining nicely this afternoon...

[gatorcane]

convection is still maintaining nicely this afternoon...

A major blowup of convection within the past hour or so off the coast of Belize - check out the latest IR. Anybody have a link for winds along the Belize coastline?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Stormcenter]

The plot thickens. Who cares about the Atlantic invests did someone forget about the NW Carribean?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[wxmann_91]

Strong westerlies to the north, steering currents will guide the convection further south into the EPAC.

[gatorcane]

Strong westerlies to the north, steering currents will guide the convection further south into the EPAC.

I disagree, strong trough is digging down into the GOM. You can see it on the WV loop, that should pull some of the energy north and things should get interesting as the energy gets left behind in the NW Caribbean this week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

the trough is visible over LA from the oranges on the loop above (showing the dry air). Look at it digging into the GOM as we speak:

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Wonder why the NHC hasn't even mentioned this system? This looks better than any of the other invests.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Wonder why the NHC hasn't even mentioned this system? This looks better than any of the other invests.

Here is the latest from the NHC Tropical Discussion as of 2:05pm EST

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS STILL DOMINATING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
PRODUCING A BIG CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE SEEN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
BEGINNING TONIGHT