INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[JamesFromMaine2]

On windsat its showing alot of 60kt winds but no closed LLC!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscat can't pick up a LLC with a system moving over 20 knots off to the west.

[skysummit]

I noticed they moved the position of 93L a little further north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Super hot for June. Over the last 60 years it has only hit 100 degrees 3 times for June. This year we hit 101 degrees yesterday which was a all time june record. In which was beaten today. This is more like July or August. Hot as heck!

[skysummit]

I noticed they moved the position of 93L a little further north.

[Ola]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 262037
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 PM AST MON JUN 26 2006

MAINTAIN OUR RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE THE EFFECTS OF THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS NEXT WAVE...
CURRENTLY ALIGNED SW TO NE FROM 49W TO 46W...IS ACCOMPANIED BY
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE...GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND IS
FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM SUNRISE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED WET WEATHER SATURDAY. OUR
CURRENT FORECASTS ARE STILL QUITE CONSERVATIVE IN DEALING WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...BUT LOOK FOR CONSIDERABLE CHANGES IN OUR
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS WAVE AAPPROACHES
CLOSER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE TO BETTER
ORGANIZE...AND THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

[WindRunner]

00Z Models . . . absolutely killing the development it was showing earlier.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060627 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060627 0000 060627 1200 060628 0000 060628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 48.1W 11.0N 51.2W 12.1N 54.1W 13.5N 56.9W
BAMM 10.0N 48.1W 10.8N 51.5W 11.7N 54.9W 12.8N 58.4W
A98E 10.0N 48.1W 10.3N 50.3W 11.1N 52.6W 12.3N 55.0W
LBAR 10.0N 48.1W 10.7N 50.9W 11.6N 54.1W 12.7N 57.7W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 21KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 21KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060629 0000 060630 0000 060701 0000 060702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 59.5W 18.8N 63.3W 21.8N 65.6W 23.3N 66.4W
BAMM 14.2N 61.4W 16.9N 66.8W 19.7N 71.5W 21.7N 75.9W
A98E 13.4N 57.6W 16.4N 62.8W 19.3N 67.6W 22.3N 71.0W
LBAR 14.0N 61.0W 17.3N 65.6W 20.0N 68.3W 20.9N 73.3W
SHIP 29KTS 38KTS 39KTS 34KTS
DSHP 29KTS 38KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 48.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 44.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Not necessarily the start of a trend though, but it had been showing upper 40s to around 50kts for the intensity in the 96-120hr range, both versions.

[skysummit]

[AnnularCane]

Looks like Beryl won't form before Bret did last year.

Too bad for Beryl. I bet Bret will make fun of Beryl in hurricane heaven.

Not if she is stronger than he was, or lasts longer.

Knowing how fast things can change in the tropics, I wouldn't say so just yet. But I suspect you are right.

[O Town]

Intresting model plots. If those verify then this invest won't have to indure the high shear in the caribbean.

[JamesFromMaine2]

also as far as development it maybe what is now possibly 94L that the models was showing developing so much so they may start model runs on 94L as well

[Tampa_God]

Will this ever end?

[mvtrucking]

Super hot for June. Over the last 60 years it has only hit 100 degrees 3 times for June. This year we hit 101 degrees yesterday which was a all time june record. In which was beaten today. This is more like July or August. Hot as heck!

I lived in the Tacoma area for 25 years and its very rare for that kind of heat this early in the beautiful Northwest. (Most people don't have AC either) Put a bucket of ice in front of a fan and make you a homemade swamp cooler Matt.

[beachbum_al]

Will this ever end?

Eventually but right now it is hurricane season and it is going to be a long ride!

[wxman57]

It looks like they're repositioning 93L to be over the mid-level circulation center between 10N-11N near 48W, the top of the wave that I was talking about yesterday. That little vortex down near 6N-7N won't be the focus for development (if any).

But very interesting model plots. I think what we're seeing in the NW movement toward the NE caribbean is caused by two things:

1. The BAM models are not dynamic, meaning they may not be seeing the trof now over the NE Caribbean Sea lifting out in a few days

2. The BAM models assume we already have an LLC and that it will be developing over the next 2-3 days. Both of those assumptions are likely incorrect.

If the system does not develop, then it may track more westward. I made up some mid level steering maps for various times. Here's the first, valid 18Z tomorrow. I indicated the positions of highs/lows, including the approximate location of 93L on each map:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Here's Friday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lc.gif

Here's the same map for Sunday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93La.gif

And for Monday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif

Note that with time, the ridge builds to the north of this system, shutting off any potential to turn to the NW or N. So it could well track across the southern Caribbean (generally south of 15N) for the next week and eventually reach Central America (maybe Nicaragua to Honduras. Might be a better chance of development there when it slows down a bit.

[feederband]

Will this ever end?

Hope not..

[canegrl04]

Crap.With several invests at one time,something better come of at least one of them 93L looks like it could be Beryl barreling toward the GOM

[wxmann_91]

2. The BAM models assume we already have an LLC and that it will be developing over the next 2-3 days. Both of those assumptions are likely incorrect.

That's what I was thinking. The Deep Bam has the farthest north track, and it's assuming that there's a pretty strong low there that will be under more of an upper level steering influence.

I think it will remain in the Caribbean. The models tend to underdo developing ridges.

[CrazyC83]

Will this ever end?

It's only just beginning. Instead of 2 or 3 invests at a time by August, it could be 2 or 3 hurricanes...

[wxman57]

2. The BAM models assume we already have an LLC and that it will be developing over the next 2-3 days. Both of those assumptions are likely incorrect.

That's what I was thinking. The Deep Bam has the farthest north track, and it's assuming that there's a pretty strong low there that will be under more of an upper level steering influence.

I think it will remain in the Caribbean. The models tend to underdo developing ridges.

Note on my maps above that the trof lifts out to the northwest over the next 3-4 days as high pressure north of the disturbance builds westward. That should block much northward movement. By the weekend, there's a fairly strong high north of the system.