Possible Future Development in the NW Caribbean?

[southerngale]

convection is still maintaining nicely this afternoon...

A major blowup of convection within the past hour or so off the coast of Belize - check out the latest IR. Anybody have a link for winds along the Belize coastline?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

.

Wunderground Belize

Accuweather Belize

[gatorcane]

convection is still maintaining nicely this afternoon...

A major blowup of convection within the past hour or so off the coast of Belize - check out the latest IR. Anybody have a link for winds along the Belize coastline?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

.

Wunderground Belize

Accuweather Belize

great thanks

[gatorcane]

Looks like the whole mess is edging slowly NNW in response to the digging trough right now...

[gatorcane]

it certainly looks like the blob in the SW Caribbean is becoming suspicious with each passing hour -

changed the title to include the SW Caribbean blob also

[gatorcane]

Little mentioned in the 8:05 TWO but still looking very distrurbed in the Western Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 79W
COVERING THE AREA TO 66W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED N
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N W OF 80W AND S OF 11N W OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING A MUCH LARGER AREA W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am very surprised that the NHC is not mentioning this stuff!

[dixiebreeze]

Big burst of convection here late tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[Yankeegirl]

Looks quite interesting... Defiantely something that needs a Bear Watch...

[corpusbreeze]

West Caribbean looks like the best thing going on right now. I bet we see models picking up on it tomorrow.

[Starburst]

I have not checked the models but the area that will exit into the gulf BOC area looks pretty good this morning.

[gatorcane]

Looks like much of the activity has moved into the NW Caribbean now as I thought it would yesterday...now lets see if anything gradually gets organized...

[gatorcane]

8:05AM discussion:

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAD BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W...AND ALL ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO
THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.

[gatorcane]

convection is increasing in the NW Caribbean this morning....

Here is the latest IR loop. Looks like the whole mess may end up making it into the GOM at some point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

convection is increasing in the NW Caribbean this morning....

Here is the latest IR loop. Looks like the whole mess may end up making it into the GOM at some point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Yeah I was just looking at the Vis. loop, there maybe a mid circ starting north of Roatan. Also of note the pressures are higher today than they were yesterday in this area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This area seems to have held together very well.

[gatorcane]

This area seems to have held together very well.

I think it will emerge into the Southern Central GOM and if it develops would be a north central GOM threat or Western GOM threat...but it is early.

I see that trough to the north that should help it get pulled north today before the ridge behind this trough moves in more WNW.

[cheezyWXguy]

It appears that a circulation maybe trying to form just off of belizein the deep convection and this isnt really a very environment for development...I could see this thing making it to be chris or debby

[cheezyWXguy]

It appears that a circulation maybe trying to form just off of belizein the deep convection and this isnt really a very bad environment for development...I could see this thing making it to be chris or debby

[HurricaneHunter914]

I doubt it though. I usually worry about things if the NHC worries about it. Since shear is way high in the Caribbean this has no chance.

[Steve]

>>GFS predicts pretty brutal shear over the Caribbean for the next week. The subtropical jet is still strong and southerly. No opportunity for tropical cyclones.

Never base "no opportunity" off of anything the GFS shows. It doesn't handle many aspects of the weather perfectly .

>>Since shear is way high in the Caribbean this has no chance.

Since when did shear being way high give a cyclone no chance? Seems as though many people said the same thing about what became Alberto. It's June folks. And in June (as well as October and November), you often have shear in the western Atlantic basin. It's a fact of nature but one that seems to be lost on a lot of people for whatever reason.

Steve