91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Stormcenter]

Here's a new surface plot. The mid-level circulation center is moving over a buoy now. That buoy still h as SE winds at 15 kts. No evidence of anything but SE winds in the buoy reports offshore. Lowest pressure remains inland over S. Carolina. I agree, it LOOKS better than it ever did. If not for the surface observations which indicate that there appears to be no LLC, the satellite animations make it look like a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91Lb.gif

wxman57 how would you explain it if they do classify it a TD or TS?

[wxman57]

Sure looks like a td to me.

The problem is that one of the main requirements for upgrading a disturbance to a TD is a closed low-level circulation center. Observations at the surface do not indicate that there is a circulation center. A circulation center aloft doesn't count.

[AJC3]

Here's a new surface plot. The mid-level circulation center is moving over a buoy now. That buoy still h as SE winds at 15 kts. No evidence of anything but SE winds in the buoy reports offshore. Lowest pressure remains inland over S. Carolina. I agree, it LOOKS better than it ever did. If not for the surface observations which indicate that there appears to be no LLC, the satellite animations make it look like a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91Lb.gif

wxman57 how would you explain it if they do classify it a TD or TS?

Easily. The closed circulation would have to be tiny. So tiny, in fact, that it wouldn't be able to be resolved by the network of surface METAR, Buoy, C-Man and ship obs.

[Derek Ortt]

it would be Charley sized when all data had indicated it had opened up into a wave, but recon got in there and found a rapidly intensifying TS

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot. The mid-level circulation center is moving over a buoy now. That buoy still h as SE winds at 15 kts. No evidence of anything but SE winds in the buoy reports offshore. Lowest pressure remains inland over S. Carolina. I agree, it LOOKS better than it ever did. If not for the surface observations which indicate that there appears to be no LLC, the satellite animations make it look like a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91Lb.gif

wxman57 how would you explain it if they do classify it a TD or TS?

I'd say that in order for the NHC to classifiy it as a TD, they'd have to find a closed LLC, but that's not true. They upgraded Grace a few years ago in the NW Gulf and the plane could never find a center. But Grace was producing TS force winds in squalls to the northeast of theh wave axis.

In this case, I think that the NHC may be under tremendous pressure from local emergency officials to call this a TD so that they can enact their emergency plans for the heavy rain expected. Certainly, it's not a wind or a surge threat, but it is going to dump a lot more rain on areas that are already in trouble. So if calling it a TD will enable local officials to enact their plans, then I think the NHC may well do that even if the plane can't find a circulation.

Stacy Stewart is certainly a good forecaster, and I'm sure he'll do whatever is needed to accomplish the NHC's primary goal - protecting the public.

[wxman57]

it would be Charley sized when all data had indicated it had opened up into a wave, but recon got in there and found a rapidly intensifying TS

We'll see soon enough. I'm at work, now, anyway, so it doesn't make any difference to me if they call it a TD before it moves ashore this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

I give the NHC alot of credit - while most on here wrote this system off, the NHC stuck with their thinking it could still develop at anytime -

Great job NHC once again

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Even if it forms it needs to hurry up and become a TS because its going to hit the coast in 7 HOURS! I looked at the report and it said that 91L was about 140 Miles away from the Carolinas and that the invest was moving at 20 mph. If you do your math right then this system has only about 7 hours.

As I measure the center of the mid-level circulation, it it about 80 nautical miles from the coast and moving at about 20 kts. That's 4 hours from land at 10am CDT.

Where are you putting the center? Looking at the extended base reflectivity and radial velocities from Wilmington, NC, I'd put the center at 33.3N 77W... with a NNE heading at 20 kts, I'd put landfall at 35.8N 76.2W (155 NM) in 7-8 hours...

['CaneFreak]

What time will it make "landfall", do you know?

[Noles2006]

I get the feeling they will call this TS Beryl... just my gut, though.

[no advance]

Each invest has its own character. I have thought a couple times it had a chance. Now time is winding down.

[wxman57]

What time will it make "landfall", do you know?

I can see rotation aloft on radar near 33.5N/77.2W moving toward 351 degrees at 26 kts. That puts it 60 miles from the coast. It'll be inland in about 2 1/2 hours, or by 2:30pm EDT.

[gatorcane]

it looks alot better than Alberto in my opinion.

[storms NC]

Where is the landfall at?

[Noles2006]

it looks alot better than Alberto in my opinion.

Looks good, yes, but the sfc. data says it lacks a closed off LLC, which is a requirement for classification... still, I get the feeling it will be named..

[Brent]

I think it's going to run out of time(since apparently there is no closed circulation), but the NHC might just name it because it's about to make landfall.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even if they name it there wouldn't be enough time for evacuation.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but you don't name it just to name it. If it doesn't meet the requirements to be classified a TD or whatever then they won't and shouldn't do it.

[Weatherfreak000]

It doesn't really seem right IF this thing will be upgraded to leave it as a TD. If it's upgraded i'll have to assume it'll be named.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this doe's not become Beryl it would not say that 2006 is not trying. Bret was not very strong or organized. But I'm hoping for a weak tropical storm.