INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

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x-y-no
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#301 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's a new satellite image of the wave. As you can see, there no longer appears to be any cicrulation center aloft. The rapid westward movement is taking its toll.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lg.gif


I'm not so sure. It was a very small circulation to begin with and some convection has flared up over where it was tracking. So while there's no evidence in the visible loop now of west winds at the surface, there could still be a small circulation under that convection.

It's also possible, of course, that it has opened up into a wave again.
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CHRISTY

#302 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:18 pm

Close up model tracks for 93L...
Image
Image
Image
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#303 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:30 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

93L has flared up dispite the shear, looks like he's fighting to stay alive.
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#304 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:32 pm

something is wierd why is their a floater for 94L?i thought it was 93L!
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#305 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:22 pm

2:05 Discussion...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 15N OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THAT AREA

Sourse...http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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#306 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:26 pm

It's still only a wave. No circulation at all. Long way from development.
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#307 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's still only a wave. No circulation at all. Long way from development.


I still think I'm seeing a very small surface circulation, right inside where I drew this circle:

Image

It appears to have relocated to the NW, closer to the convection than it was tracking before. See the storm relative loop at RAMSDIS.
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#308 Postby TS Zack » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:38 pm

Definitely a small low-level swirl. We will see what happens.
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#309 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:39 pm

yep xy. still a LLC with thunderstorms firing right on the east side.
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#310 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:40 pm

Yeah that is a LLC this system is better organized then 91L. Why because there is proof of a LLC. This should if that can get some convection over it be upgraded.
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#311 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:42 pm

could be a LLC folks - nice find x-y-no
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#312 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:43 pm

Check out the loop here - I think x-y-no found the LLC we have been looking for:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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#313 Postby Opal storm » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:43 pm

Still looks fairly impressive but it has a long bumpy road ahead of it.Maybe if it goes a little further north like some of the models are showing it wll miss some of that shear in the Carib.
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#314 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:44 pm

Opal storm wrote:Still looks fairly impressive but it has a long bumpy road ahead of it.Maybe if it goes a little further north like some of the models are showing it wll miss some of that shear in the Carib.


Looks to me it is heading more WNW then W, in fact it may pass north of the islands or go through the northern Leewards missing the shear
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#315 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:46 pm

I think 93L has a good chance - on the visible there is a nice rotation already and there is plenty of real estate it has to work with....
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#316 Postby mvtrucking » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:yep xy. still a LLC with thunderstorms firing right on the east side.


With those firing, it is harder for me to see that LLC(They seem to be firing right over it in the 1815 visible?)
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#317 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:48 pm

Well, we'll see ... something this small can go "poof" in the blink of an eye. But I'll agree it has a shot if that convection stays close to that little LLC.
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#318 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:49 pm

If convection is firing over it then its more organize then 91L. I feel that this could be a depression very soon if it can keep firing convection over the LLC.
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#319 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:50 pm

x-y-no wrote:Well, we'll see ... something this small can go "poof" in the blink of an eye. But I'll agree it has a shot if that convection stays close to that little LLC.


You can clearly see the LLC on the loop I gave above. It's where x-y-no put the circle. There is clearly a rotation as the clouds on the west side are moving counter-clockwise. It is still moving very fast at 15-20mph but once it slows as it approaches the islands it has a better chance.
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#320 Postby no advance » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:53 pm

The little swirl will probally be gone tomorrow morning. More than likely I say. What about you all?
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