91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[CrazyC83]

Essentially for those in the area there - treat this as a tropical storm (preparations wise) even if it is not officially one because of the lack of a low level circulation.

[Stratusxpeye]

The little system that could. It looks nice and is very very close. It's basically a really big afternoon thunderstorm Im doubtful we'll get a TS out of this system but If it is upgraded beyond 91L It would go right to TS Beryl as the winds so far would support that. No TD2. In that case would NHC Use TD 2 Next time? Or TD 3? Would confuse folks and records. I might eat crow but I'm going on a limb. Either way nothing would change effects will be the same name or no name.

[AnnularCane]

The little system that could. It looks nice and is very very close. It's basically a really big afternoon thunderstorm Im doubtful we'll get a TS out of this system but If it is upgraded beyond 91L It would go right to TS Beryl as the winds so far would support that. No TD2. In that case would NHC Use TD 2 Next time? Or TD 3? Would confuse folks and records. I might eat crow but I'm going on a limb. Either way nothing would change effects will be the same name or no name.

I believe the next one would be TD2, if this one goes right to Beryl.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Next would would be td3.

Alberto was td1
This or 93L if if it forms would be td2/Beryl
next would be td3

[Thunder44]

They still say it could form into TS.

[JonathanBelles]

what are the chance of it forming over land?
if it does form will it be overland TD 2/ TS beryl?

[HurricaneHunter914]

TS Beryl, but right now I'm saying that this is moving to fast and the chances for it to form into Beryl are very small (30% chance IMO).

[jasons2k]

Clouds tops are not as cold as they were earlier. It is looking like convection is dying down some in the past few frames, not as intense.

Yeah, it's moved into slightly cooler waters.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh well looks like Beryl will have to wait.

[terstorm1012]

NWS Sterling indicates this system will likely bring very heavy rain to the Baltimore-Washington area. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=0&max=51

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVE
DIRECTLY NORTH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
NAM. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. IN ADDITION...THE
NAM TRACKS THE LOW CENTER STRAIGHT UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE GFS
TRACKS THE LOW CENTER ALONG OR JUST TO THE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER CONTINUITY. EITHER WAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ON
THE WAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE SEEM TO
INDICATE ON AVERAGE ANOTHER THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE CWFA BY 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SPELL THE END OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ON A LEE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY.

Mt. Holly hasn't updated yet..they're probably busy since the Delaware and Schuylkill have hopped their banks north and west of Philly.

[bigmoney755]

27/1745 UTC 34.0N 77.1W T2.0/2.0 91L

[OuterBanker]

Latest tpc;
WONT41 KNHC 271829
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH
LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

A nasty afternoon and night here. Not so bad so far, sun most of day. Earlier beautiful clouds and carib blue skies.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like this will remain as 91L and not turn into Beryl ( I'm lowering my percentage to 20%).

[WindRunner]

Radar-based center making landfall at Emerald Isle, NC right now. (3:29 EDT)

[dhweather]

A non-tropical system making landfall?

[whereverwx]

There's like no wind at all with this system... lol (I live in Onslow County). I'm glad I gave it a 0% chance of developing... it appears I was right!

[Regit]

There's like no wind at all with this system... lol (I live in Onslow County)

Have had wind in the bands near Myrtle Beach. They got pretty strong earlier.

[wxman57]

Here's a new sfc plot with satellite. Looks like an area of thunderstorms with surface winds of 15-25 kts for the most part. Just more rain for areas that don't need it:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/91Le.gif

[CrazyC83]

A non-tropical system making landfall?

It's a tropical low. It has all the tropical characteristics, just no low-level circulation.

[terstorm1012]

from the looks of it, its moisture is already enhancing the rainfall over the mid-Atlantic.

going to be a rough evening and rougher wednesday for us here.

hopefully most of the rain goes east and out to sea.