DC may double june rainfall record. more rain than in agnes

[rainstorm]

any flood reports from the northeast?

[itglobalsecure]

I'm in downtown DC. It's very bad. The bottom floors and English basements around here are taking a hit, much as they did 3-4 years ago.

[rainstorm]

good luck

[rainstorm]

you could get 4-8 inches more rain tomorrow and tonight

[Trugunzn]

FXUS61 KLWX 261941 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006


.CLIMATE...DCA HAD ITS SECOND GREATEST 24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL YESTERDAY
WITH 7.09 INCHES ENDING AT 8AM THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST 24 HR
RAINFALL TOTAL WAS BACK IN JUNE 1972 WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM AGNES WHEN 7.19 INCHES WERE RECORDED. THIS HAS BEEN THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD FOR DCA WITH MORE THAN 11.50 INCHES OF RAIN
SO FAR AND MORE TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
11.53 INCHES BACK IN 1972 WITH REMNANTS OF TS AGNES. PLEASE SEE
RECORD REPORTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

[rainstorm]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-local ... &site=korf


massive flooding may occur tonight

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm seeing the hottest heat have to hit the northwest ever for June. In you people are flooding. WOW!

[rainstorm]

we would gladly change places with you

[angelwing]

(I drive over the delaware and that's kinda high, but not over it's banks yet, but a lot of the creeks and streams on the way to NJ from PA are starting to creep to the road. Will be interesting later)

Portion of Kelly Drive Shut Down Due to Flooding (http://www.kyw1060.com)


A portion of Kelly Drive has been shut down due to flooding from the Schuylkill River.

The flooding is causing the shutdown midway through Midvale and Ferry Avenue at the base of the Twin Bridges. There is a one-block detour.

The water has been rising throughout the morning and is close to reaching street level.

Stay tuned to KYW Newsradio for the latest on this developing story

[terstorm1012]

considerable small stream flooding around Harrisburg.

Boil advisories in some East Shore suburbs and ALL of the west Shore suburbs.

Susquehanna expected to crest aroun 17 feet on Thursday. . . but this may be HIGHER due to approaching tropical mess off of North Carolina. Floodstage is about 19 feet at Harrisburg.

Angelwing the Delaware may be backed up from the week of Southeast winds we've had. It piles the Atlantic into Delaware Bay. South of Trenton the Delaware is deep enough to handle floodwaters from the north. The Schuykill is tidal to the dam at the Art Museum.

[angelwing]

Thank you terstorm, I just worry about going home, I remember last year, we had some nasty rain in July/August and the one route that I take to get to PA from NJ (rt 29)was flooded out from the Delaware and the detour that was given made my trip home almost 4 hours! The only good thing was that they didn't take any tolls, they waved everyone through the bridge between Trenton/PA.

[terstorm1012]

Well good luck getting home Angelwing. Just saw in the Mount Holly discussion there's a big concern for mainstem Delaware flooding.

[angelwing]

Thank you, I might sneak out early then, I don't relish trying to fight 45 miles to drive home, a lot of people have no clue how to drive when even one drop of water hits their windshield (never mind snow)

(just seen the tornado warning for Elk county, ack)

[terstorm1012]

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MAJOR SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT HARRISBURG
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 3 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS...5.7 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE EVENING TOMORROW AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO A CREST NEAR 25.0 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.
* AT 26.0 FEET...GREEN AND VAUGHN STREETS FLOOD.


I'm on Front...eep!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Well be safe.....all of that water eventually has to go somewhere, thus the gates at Conowingo Dam might be open and it might get to it's breaking point so to speak. This flood certainly will test out Conowingo's strength and power. Then Port Deposit might be next in line. A coastal flood warning is up now, but the Susquehanna River might also rise due to heavy rains in this area of northeast Maryland.

Also just got a report of tornado damage in southern Maryland.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TORNADO 3 SW CHAPTICO 38.34N 76.82W
06/27/2006 ST. MARYS MD EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND BARNS COLLAPSED


&&

[rainstorm]

prayers for everyone

[Trugunzn]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL
VA...CENTRAL/SRN MD...DC...DE...EXTREME SERN PA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 272235Z - 280100Z

POTENTIAL MAY BE INCREASING OVER DISCUSSION AREA FOR SUPERCELLS AND
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SRN BOUND OF MOST FAVORABLE AREA WILL BE DEFINED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL
CYCLONE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NERN NC. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NNEWD 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN NC...SERN VA AND SRN
CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA REGION THROUGH NEXT 4-6 HOURS. MESOBETA SCALE
ENHANCEMENTS IN LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
ABOUT 150 NM NNW-NE OF THIS CYCLONE...WITH JUST ENOUGH BACKING OF
SFC FLOW AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST KM AGL TO YIELD SRH
100-200 J/KG IN THAT LAYER...BASED ON MODIFIED VWP AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS. FARTHER N...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED LOW CLOUD BAND
FROM ABOUT 36N73.5W NNWWD ACROSS DE BAY AND SRN NJ COAST. THIS
DENOTES CHANGE IN MARINE AIR MASS AND SFC THETAE -- EVIDENT IN 70S F
SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND MID 60S NJ COAST.
GREATEST HEAVY RAIN AND SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN W OF NNWWD
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BAND AND E OF I-95 WHERE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED. THERMODYNAMICALLY...AIR MASS SW OF CLOUD BAND IS
TROPICAL IN CHARACTER WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...OFFSET ENOUGH
BY VERY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CINH TO YIELD MLCAPES
500-800 J/KG. ONLY GRADUAL DECREASE IN BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED AFTER
DARK BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC COOLING...STILL
OFFSET BY AMPLE AMBIENT MOISTURE.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH APCH OF LOW AS WELL. VERY
EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LARGE
SUBSET OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER...RESULTING IN 1.5-2.5 INCH/HOUR
RAIN RATES IN HEAVIEST CORES. TRAINING/MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
AND CLUSTERS WILL LOCALLY MAXIMIZE THIS THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 06/27/2006

[WXBUFFJIM]

Just got the latest stage for the Susquehanna below Concowingo Dam and it's looking scary ladies and gentlemen. Major flooding is forecasted and we could see this trend potentially worsen a bit further.

WGUS41 KPHI 272144
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
532 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WARNING FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BELOW CONOWINGO DAM AFFECTING CECIL AND HARFORD COUNTIES

...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER...

MDC015-025-280332-
/X.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0030.060629T0100Z-000000T0000Z/
/CNWM2.1.ER.060629T0100Z.060629T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
532 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SUSQUEHANNA BELOW CONOWINGO DAM
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

* AT 4:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS...18.0 FEET.
* MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

* FLOOD STAGE IS 23.5 FEET.

* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 32 FEET LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* AT 31.0 FEET...NOTIFICATION LEVEL 9 WITH 43 TO 53 GATES OPEN AT
CONOWINGO DAM. WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN
THE TOWN OF PORT DEPOSIT MARYLAND.

* THE EXACT CREST HEIGHT AND TIMING ARE DEPENDENT UPON UPSTREAM DAM
OPERATIONS.

$$

FLD OBSERVED FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME CREST

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
CONOWINGO DAM 23.5 17.96 TUE 4 PM 31.0 FRI 2 AM

&&

[terstorm1012]

that IS severe, because ALL the dams are open on the Susquehanna.

I'm hearing they'll open Holtwood and York Haven tomorrow and there's a ton of water coming down from New York state.

there's also evacuations in Northeast Pennsylvania according to the weather channel.

at 8pmEDT, evacuations in Harrisburg may begin. Stay tuned. A news conference is coming (I have the local news on now, it's a special report.)

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's certainly not a pretty picture, but that water has to be released somehow without the prospects of the dams failing. It will be interesting to see Conowingo later this week. I won't be surprised if severe river flooding does in fact take shape with this type of setup.

Be safe regardless. This is a huge concern and something not to take lightly.