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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
ABNT20 KNHC 270847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 270847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
000
AXNT20 KNHC 270618
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD...AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 25N78W. ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THIS AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION BECAME WEAKER AND/OR DISSIPATED. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WEST OF 75W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 8N20W 7N26W 7N34W 8N37W 8N47W 8N50W 7N56W 7N60W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W 21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N51W TO 28N55W TO 25N60W TO 20N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 270618
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 NM NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD...AND ONLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 25N78W. ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W A FEW HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMED IN THIS AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION BECAME WEAKER AND/OR DISSIPATED. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY OTHER NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...PROBABLY NOT RELATED TO THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND IN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. OTHER AREAS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WEST OF 75W.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N12W 8N20W 7N26W 7N34W 8N37W 8N47W 8N50W 7N56W 7N60W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W 21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 32N51W TO 28N55W TO 25N60W TO 20N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.
$$
MT
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bvigal
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 270847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 270847
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DIFFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF
18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH
WHICH RUNS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WHICH MAY NOT LAST FOR
MUCH MORE TIME. THIS FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED
TO THE EAST AND BEING SQUEEZED A BIT BY THE ON-RUSHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 26N78W.
ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W ARE MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CROSSING ON TOP OF THESE CLOUDS MOVING
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W
AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAD BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W...AND ALL ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO
THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N11W 7N25W 7N34W 8N39W 8N47W 8N51W 7N57W 8N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 4N17W 5N30W 6N40W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...
SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH
COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W
21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO
33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 28N60W TO 24N64W TO 20N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 271103
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
THIS IS THE LOW CENTER WHICH MOVED FROM THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AND NOW INTO GEORGIA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO OF
18 TO 24 HOURS AGO CONSISTED OF WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SITUATION AT THIS MOMENT CONSISTS OF A TROUGH
WHICH RUNS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WHICH MAY NOT LAST FOR
MUCH MORE TIME. THIS FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH IS BEING PUSHED
TO THE EAST AND BEING SQUEEZED A BIT BY THE ON-RUSHING MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. MOVING EASTWARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND NOW THE RIDGE
COVERS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 26N78W.
ANOTHER SEPARATE HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W. THIS SYSTEM STILL IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W ARE MOVING WESTWARD. OTHER
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CROSSING ON TOP OF THESE CLOUDS MOVING
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC SENSE. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CELLS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W
AND 50W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 83W/84W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS
MOVED RIGHT INTO THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OVER THE WATERS FROM 19N
TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
16N TO 18N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAD BEEN OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W...AND ALL ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO
THE WAVE...BUT MORE RELATED TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N11W 7N25W 7N34W 8N39W 8N47W 8N51W 7N57W 8N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 4N17W 5N30W 6N40W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...
SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STILL EAST OF 90W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF. HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 93W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE WATERS EAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE WEST OF 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 73W IS EXPERIENCING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO THE TROUGH WHICH
COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 26N71W
21N70W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES NEAR 13N67W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR 31N51W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 26N TO 35N BETWEEN 46W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 29N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 26N TO
33N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO
26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 28N60W TO 24N64W TO 20N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM 11N39W TO 25N38W BEYOND 32N39W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
NORTH OF 18N EAST OF THE 11N39W 32N39W RIDGE.
$$
MT
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Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
ABNT20 KNHC 271501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 271749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 30.5N-35W BETWEEN
75.5W-78.5W AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH
CAROLINA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER
OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 15N OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THAT AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE
TO THE WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE EASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA...
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N25W 7N35W 7N40W 9N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS WEST OF 53W AND ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA
AND NE VENEZUELA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF IS OVER
WEST FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS KEEPING RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH
LIGHT WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR 27N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE
QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC WEST OF
70W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS MAINLY SOUTH
FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF
20-25 KT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 70W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF
22N FROM 50W-70W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 31N50W 25N60W TO 21N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM E AND S OF THE
TROUGH FROM 46W-58W AND WITHIN 50N N OF THE TROUGH FROM 58W-62W.
AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N38W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE TROPICS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. ACCORDING TO THE
27/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 40W.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 271749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 30.5N-35W BETWEEN
75.5W-78.5W AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH
CAROLINA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER
OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 15N OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THAT AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE
TO THE WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE EASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA...
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N25W 7N35W 7N40W 9N49W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS WEST OF 53W AND ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA
AND NE VENEZUELA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROF IS OVER
WEST FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS KEEPING RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH
LIGHT WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR 27N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE
QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC WEST OF
70W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS MAINLY SOUTH
FROM THE W ATLC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF
20-25 KT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 70W. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS N OF
22N FROM 50W-70W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 31N50W 25N60W TO 21N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM E AND S OF THE
TROUGH FROM 46W-58W AND WITHIN 50N N OF THE TROUGH FROM 58W-62W.
AN LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N38W
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE TROPICS. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY 1036 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. ACCORDING TO THE
27/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 40W.
$$
GR
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 272123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVESTIGATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY MOVED INLAND NEAR MOREHEAD CITY BEFORE IT
COULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PRODUCING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 272123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INVESTIGATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY MOVED INLAND NEAR MOREHEAD CITY BEFORE IT
COULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PRODUCING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT WATERS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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CHRISTY
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280222
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS AND WELL OFFSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE A
HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ABNT20 KNHC 280222
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS AND WELL OFFSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE A
HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
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-
bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 272302
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INLAND OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
MOREHEAD CITY WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW INLAND JUST TO THE N NEAR
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT TO NE
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA TO BEYOND NEW YORK MOVING N
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWARD PATH.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-54W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON
UPPER AIR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDING S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SW
GULF LATER TONIGHT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 81W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 10N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-59W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE GULF
FROM 23N-30N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA
BUT ARE MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF REGION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W
COVERING THE AREA TO 73W ANCHORED NEAR 11N80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 78W IN
ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SE CUBA FROM 74.5W-77.5W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 27N75W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 75W THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS NOW N OF 30N. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 30N60W SW TO 23N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N41W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 29W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS
26N24W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 272302
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED INLAND OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
MOREHEAD CITY WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW INLAND JUST TO THE N NEAR
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT TO NE
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH VIRGINIA TO BEYOND NEW YORK MOVING N
DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWARD PATH.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-54W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 21N WAS REPOSITIONED BASED ON
UPPER AIR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
EXTENDING S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SW
GULF LATER TONIGHT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 81W TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 10N50W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-59W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE ALONG 26N87W TO OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE
SE GULF S OF 23N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE GULF
FROM 23N-30N. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA
BUT ARE MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF REGION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W
COVERING THE AREA TO 73W ANCHORED NEAR 11N80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS BEING ADVECTED N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 78W IN
ADDITION TO THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SE CUBA FROM 74.5W-77.5W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO OVER
PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 27N75W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 75W THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS NOW N OF 30N. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 30N60W SW TO 23N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N50W ALONG 25N60W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 13N41W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-61W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE ATLC N OF 22N E OF 29W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW IS
26N24W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.
$$
WALLACE
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
ABNT20 KNHC 280222
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS AND WELL OFFSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE A
HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS AND WELL OFFSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WHERE GUSTY WINDS COULD POSE A
HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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325
AXNT20 KNHC 280614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA BORDER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE BAY.
THE LOW CENTER HAS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS...PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE CONCERNING GALE WARNINGS AND ANY
RAINFALL AND/OR FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE TODAY.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY MORE ITCZ-RELATED THAN DIRECTLY RELATED
JUST TO THIS WAVE...ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO
THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS
PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TODAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 7N20W 5N26W 5N37W 7N42W 11N52W 11N55W 9N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W
AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. THIS WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN
AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE APPROACHING 30N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH 31N89W 25N93W IS A DEFAULT
FEATURE IN THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO 90W...
ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL
EL SALVADOR. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 80W AND IN INTERIOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N61W LOW
CENTER TO 24N67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W...TOWARD
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W PROBABLY NEAR THE ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 32N46W LOW CENTER
TO A 30N61W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 31N53W 27N60W 20N69W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 280614
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA BORDER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE BAY.
THE LOW CENTER HAS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE AFFECTED
AREAS...PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE CONCERNING GALE WARNINGS AND ANY
RAINFALL AND/OR FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE TODAY.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY MORE ITCZ-RELATED THAN DIRECTLY RELATED
JUST TO THIS WAVE...ARE FOUND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO
THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS
PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TODAY. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...JUST OFF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN WEAKENING.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N14W 7N20W 5N26W 5N37W 7N42W 11N52W 11N55W 9N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W
AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. THIS WEAK AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN
AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE APPROACHING 30N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH 31N89W 25N93W IS A DEFAULT
FEATURE IN THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
REACHING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO 90W...
ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL
EL SALVADOR. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 80W AND IN INTERIOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N61W LOW
CENTER TO 24N67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N68W...TOWARD
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COAST.
NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W PROBABLY NEAR THE ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 32N46W LOW CENTER
TO A 30N61W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE
FROM 31N53W 27N60W 20N69W.
$$
MT
0 likes
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Aquawind
- Category 5
- Posts: 6714
- Age: 62
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
- Location: Salisbury, NC
- Contact:
991
ABNT20 KNHC 280917
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ABNT20 KNHC 280917
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS CENTERED WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND MOVED
INLAND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS HAS CONTINUED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS CENTERED WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N AND MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N36W 2N46W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N20W 7N25W 7N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 6N20W 4N30W 3N35W
4N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN
45W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE CONTINENT OF SOUTH AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WEAK AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE APPROACHING 30N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH 30N89W 27N92W 24N93W IS A DEFAULT FEATURE IN
THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO
91W/92W...ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE EL SALVADOR PRECIPITATION
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND
89W. THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
CENTRAL AMERICA RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
30N62W LOW CENTER TO 20N68W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W...TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE OCCURRING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS TROUGH ARE WESTWARD-MOVING. NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...AND IN
WESTERN PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 33N48W LOW CENTER TO
A 30N62W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO 20N68W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO JUST WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO
29N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND
72W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N59W 26N65W
20N69W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 281059
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTED IN THE BAHAMAS AND MOVED
INLAND OVER FLORIDA DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS HAS CONTINUED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS CENTERED WELL
INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO
BE WEAKENING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATER TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 10N
TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N AND MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N36W 2N46W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N20W 7N25W 7N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 6N20W 4N30W 3N35W
4N43W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN
45W AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE CONTINENT OF SOUTH AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
IS WESTERLY. THE GULF WATERS FIND THEMSELVES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.A. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW/TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WEAK AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS SQUEEZED INTO AN AREA NEAR A WEAK RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE APPROACHING 30N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH 30N89W 27N92W 24N93W IS A DEFAULT FEATURE IN
THE MIDDLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO
91W/92W...ADDING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE EL SALVADOR PRECIPITATION
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND
89W. THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
CENTRAL AMERICA RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
30N62W LOW CENTER TO 20N68W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N68W...TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE OCCURRING NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THIS TROUGH ARE WESTWARD-MOVING. NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TO
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...AND IN
WESTERN PANAMA/SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 33N48W LOW CENTER TO
A 30N62W LOW CENTER TO 24N67W TO 20N68W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 16N68W TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
11N58W TO 20N50W 25N40W BEYOND 32N40W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 24N25W TO JUST WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO
29N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AND FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND
72W. A SURFACE TROUGH DISRUPTS THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE LINE FROM 30N59W 26N65W
20N69W.
$$
MT
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23693
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MERGING
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BUT THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
ABNT20 KNHC 281514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE
RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MERGING
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BUT THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HAZARDS
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
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gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23693
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281750
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W
SOUTH OF 11N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA.
A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS
WAVE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BARBADOS IS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 23 KT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130/160
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NE OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
KEEPING RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 89 FROM 24N-30N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NE HONDURAS. THE
EPAC ITCZ AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW...BOTH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
16N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO
22N68W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N64W. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLC COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-72W. ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 66W/67W
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N38W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICS WEST OF 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA.
TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OCEAN EAST OF
50W. ACCORDING TO THE 28/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 50W.
$$
GR
AXNT20 KNHC 281750
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 23W/24W
SOUTH OF 11N BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA.
A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS
WAVE.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS
IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS TO THOSE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BARBADOS IS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 23 KT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N26W 4N40W 6N50W 8N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130/160
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SW GULF OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NE OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
KEEPING RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 89 FROM 24N-30N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND BELIZE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NE HONDURAS. THE
EPAC ITCZ AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW...BOTH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
16N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO
22N68W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N64W. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLC COVERS THE W ATLC WEST OF 72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-72W. ITS AXIS LIES ALONG 66W/67W
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. A LARGE UPPER
HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS LOCATED NEAR 12N38W WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICS WEST OF 30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED
BY 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA.
TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE OCEAN EAST OF
50W. ACCORDING TO THE 28/1500 UTC CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE E ATLC EAST OF 50W.
$$
GR
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202
ABNT20 KNHC 282111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY HAS MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 282111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY HAS MERGED WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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bvigal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2276
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
- Location: British Virgin Islands
- Contact:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 26W-28W.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 61W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 54W-62W.
THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT
...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 9N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 31W-35W...
AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 45W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N84W 29N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-85W. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A 50-60 KT UPPER WIND
MAXIMUM IS OVER THE N GULF ALONG 30N. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TOMORROW. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-30 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
HONDURAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W ...WHILE AIRMASS CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N63W 25N65W
21N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
61W-65W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
38N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 31N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-77W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
$$
FORMOSA
AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING W AT 10 KT.
BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 26W-28W.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 12N MOVING WEST 10
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 61W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 54W-62W.
THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT
...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROBABLY
RELATED TO THE WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 5N30W 4N40W 5N50W 9N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 31W-35W...
AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 38W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 45W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N84W 29N90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-85W. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SLIGHT RIDGING
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A 50-60 KT UPPER WIND
MAXIMUM IS OVER THE N GULF ALONG 30N. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TOMORROW. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-30 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO
HONDURAS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W ...WHILE AIRMASS CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N63W 25N65W
21N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
61W-65W. A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
38N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 31N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-77W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 13N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
FROM 5N-30N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
$$
FORMOSA
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Aquawind
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804
ABNT20 KNHC 290215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER... BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 290215
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER... BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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480
AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 19N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST
OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AND WITHIN 90 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 17N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
RATHER THAN TO THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N16W 6N26W 5N29W 4N44W 5N47W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N25W 5N40W 7N54W
9N59W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF
INTERIOR MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST 25 PERCENT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N ACCOMPANIES THE
NORTHERN END OF THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A LITTLE BIT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN NORTHERN
COSTA RICA. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM SOUTHERN HAITI WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF 78W.
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 32N68W
LOW CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W TO 23N68W. THE
61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W-T0-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...
INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. TWO CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 35N30W TO 32N33W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 35N30W
32N33W TROUGH AND THE 32N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF
MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
$$
MT
AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO
THIS WAVE
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 19N IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST
OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 21N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AND WITHIN 90 NM TO THE
WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 17N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W/96W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...AND IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
RATHER THAN TO THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N16W 6N26W 5N29W 4N44W 5N47W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N25W 5N40W 7N54W
9N59W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...INTO INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING THE REST OF
INTERIOR MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM THE MEXICO COAST TO THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS BECOMES DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N68W ATLANTIC
OCEAN LOW CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST 25 PERCENT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N ACCOMPANIES THE
NORTHERN END OF THE 95W/96W TROPICAL WAVE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
REALLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UNDER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/CENTRAL AMERICA
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A LITTLE BIT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A CELL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN NORTHERN
COSTA RICA. A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM SOUTHERN HAITI WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND ELSEWHERE WEST OF 78W.
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY A TROUGH WHICH ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 15N70W 13N78W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRUSHES RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 32N68W
LOW CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W TO 23N68W. THE
61W/62W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 32N68W-T0-MONA PASSAGE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS RIDGE ARE BEING SPREAD FROM 20N60W
IN AN ANTICYCLONIC CURVE TO 20N40W. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE FOUND
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...
INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. TWO CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 29N41W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 35N30W TO 32N33W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE 35N30W
32N33W TROUGH AND THE 32N68W LOW CENTER. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE COAST OF
MOROCCO AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
$$
MT
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