South Florida Watching 93L - NWS Mia Mentions It in Forecast

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

South Florida Watching 93L - NWS Mia Mentions It in Forecast

#1 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:29 pm

South Floridians post away your comments in this thread...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. PWAT`S MUCH LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO
AND DRYER AIR EVIDENT ON RAOB ABOVE 17K. THIS IS PROVIDING SOME
PUNCH TO THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS IN STORMS SO FAR
HAS BEEN 40 MPH AND RADAR SHOWS POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL BROWARD COUNTY
BUT DEFINITELY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT LEAST THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST AND NOT SITTING STILL. WITH SW MEAN FLOW AND
SEABREEZE ALONG EAST COAST, HIGHEST POPS REST OF TODAY EAST COAST.
A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
BEING WATCHED ALONG 51W AND ACCORDING TO GFS AND WITH AN WEST
MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 KTS, THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. TOO SOON TO PUT POPS TO LIKELY ATTM
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT COULD BE VERY POSSIBLE THE CLOSER WE GET
TO THE EVENT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE DECENT
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH`S WILL BE ABOVE CRITERIA EACH AFTN SO
NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 77 89 / 25 60 35 55
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 90 77 89 / 25 55 30 55
MIAMI 78 91 77 89 / 20 55 30 55
NAPLES 75 90 75 90 / 10 35 25 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

18
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:31 pm

It looks like it will at least enhance the easterly wind flow across South Florida - we haven't had a good east wind pattern yet this summer.

I am looking forward to that :D
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:31 pm

its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#4 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development


True Derek but you don't know - it has been quite a fiesty wave up to this point. I just hope it doesn't pull any tricks for us.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:44 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its being watched for increased risk of rain, not for development


I think it fair to say it is being watched for both. Watching it doesn't necessarily mean it is going to develop does it?
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7210
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#6 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Jun 27, 2006 2:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:It looks like it will at least enhance the easterly wind flow across South Florida - we haven't had a good east wind pattern yet this summer.

I am looking forward to that :D


why does a deep easterly flow get you so excited? i prefer a SW flow like today so we get thunderstorms in the afternoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#7 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:00 pm

it is alot cooler with the easterly flow and generally the air is more tropical :D
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:44 pm

its a very disorganized wave... the thunderstorm over Miami was better organized
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 3:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its a very disorganized wave... the thunderstorm over Miami was better organized


I disagree Derek anyway, we are posting away in the other thread about it....
0 likes   

User avatar
marcane_1973
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 330
Age: 51
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
Location: N.C.
Contact:

#10 Postby marcane_1973 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:42 pm

It is way too hostile out in the Atlantic to even be worrying about anything at the moment. Conditions are not right in most areas of the Atlantic for anything to get going. This wave will most likely be torn apart and if it makes it to Florida you will be getting some much needed rain. If it was August or September then most of the invests so far would probably become named storms.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:49 pm

Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO
0 likes   

T'Bonz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 421
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:23 pm
Location: Cary, North Carolina

#12 Postby T'Bonz » Wed Jun 28, 2006 1:41 am

Heh. Sez you. I was out driving in one of those storms this afternoon!

Been watching the various waves coming across. Like last year, most are getting torpedoed. This one doesn't alarm me (it looks "ill" tonight), but am keeping a wary eye JUST in case, as I will from now 'til Nov.

jlauderdal wrote:why does a deep easterly flow get you so excited? i prefer a SW flow like today so we get thunderstorms in the afternoon.
0 likes   

User avatar
Starburst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 484
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:03 pm
Location: Beeville, TX
Contact:

#13 Postby Starburst » Wed Jun 28, 2006 4:37 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO



Derek correct me if I am wrong but I do not see where Gatorcane stated anything about the NWS watching 93L for development. Gatorcane actually stated that the NWS is watching 93L and mentions it in the discussion which they do. I do not see at all that he was trying to add words to the NWS discussion.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23021
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#14 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 28, 2006 5:52 am

Since it's not going to be developing over the next 3-4 days (as the models forecast), it's not likely going to track to the NW toward Miami. Instead, it should track with the low-level flow and head nearly due west for the next 5-7 days. May need to keep a closer eye on it as it reaches Nicaragua/Honduras or the southern Yucatan late this weekend or early next week, though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5350
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#15 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 28, 2006 6:37 am

Pretty healthy wave has there been any change in the caribbean shear forecast over the next 5 days?
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#16 Postby cpdaman » Wed Jun 28, 2006 6:53 am

let's listen to the pro's guys , what they're saying is it's highly unlikely that this thing would effect us in any signifigant way (don't worry they'll be plenty of action this summer)imo

to quote a line from dumb and dumber

"so you're saying there's a chance"
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

#17 Postby Agua » Wed Jun 28, 2006 7:21 am

cpdaman wrote:let's listen to the pro's guys . . ."


This should be a patently obvious bit of advice, but its amazing how many people seem to think meteorology is just "one guy's opinion vs. another's".
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#18 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:35 am

Starburst wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Nowhere, did the NWS say they were watching the wave for development. Instead, they only indicated their thinking for increased rainfall. Kind of adding words to the NWS statements by saying they are watching it for development, when they do not mention it, at least IMO



Derek correct me if I am wrong but I do not see where Gatorcane stated anything about the NWS watching 93L for development. Gatorcane actually stated that the NWS is watching 93L and mentions it in the discussion which they do. I do not see at all that he was trying to add words to the NWS discussion.


Thanks for this - of course I agree :D
0 likes   

HURRICANELONNY
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL

WAVE

#19 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:20 pm

Every year they say a wave will effect us and 90% of the time poof. Since they think it will this July 4th weekend. I'd bet it will be nice. I say 40% chance of afternoon thundershowers. They'll change it. It's the GFS. :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#20 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jun 28, 2006 3:00 pm

000
FXUS62 KMFL 281835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH. THE RIDGE
WILL COME TO REST AROUND 30N-32N OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL
GENERALLY LIE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PASS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE WAVE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM THE
NON-DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...DAILY
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR INTERIOR/WEST ZONES NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE EAST
. GFS MOS GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGH DAY SEVEN.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: dl20415, ljmac75 and 45 guests