A Really quiet season?

[tgenius]

Could it be that with climatology and history sort of throwing its ear to the wind, that we may end up with a quiet season, or is that being too optimistic?
(Yes, I realize its only now coming into July)

[vbhoutex]

Could it be that with climatology and history sort of throwing its ear to the wind, that we may end up with a quiet season, or is that being too optimistic?
(Yes, I realize its only now coming into July)

Your answer is in your last line. This season has already started out more active than normal, just not like it was last year. Even though I am expecting a very active season once again this year I do think last year was an anamoly. We, imo, need to be careful in "judging" future seasons and "normal" against last year as it tends to skew our thinking(I know I have to make myself think that way since last year was so incredible).

[x-y-no]

This season is a dud!


(sorry - I couldn't resist)


Seriously, there's no reason I've seen to think that this season will be anything but active. SSTs are high (albeit not as insanely high as last year) ENSO is neutral, the upper air pattern and the ITCZ are progressing normally. Taken together, all signs of an above average year.

[gatorcane]

This season is a dud!


(sorry - I couldn't resist)


Seriously, there's no reason I've seen to think that this season will be anything but active. SSTs are high (albeit not as insanely high as last year) ENSO is neutral, the upper air pattern and the ITCZ are progressing normally. Taken together, all signs of an above average year.

SEASON CANCEL!

[hurricanefreak1988]

Uh oh. Here we go...

Man, 2005 has set the bar EXTREMELY high, apparently. Everybody's got to remember that last season was the greatest hurricane season of all time. That's not supposed to happen every season.

[stormtruth]

No tropics cancel yet. Still many more storms to come. Although hopefully not one soon for the drenched northeast.

[Cyclenall]

When ever I hear this, I always think back to 2004 and what people thought of that season before the 2005 one came.

[tgenius]

I'm not trying to be the cynic as I knew these replies would happen. I was just asking if there existed the possibility that we could have a quiet season (read:under 10 named storms) or is that just a pipedream.

[x-y-no]

I'm not trying to be the cynic as I knew these replies would happen. I was just asking if there existed the possibility that we could have a quiet season (read:under 10 named storms) or is that just a pipedream.

Sorry for the snark ... as I said it was irresistable ...

I understood what you were saying and the short version of my serious response is "yes, it's a pipe dream."

[Cyclenall]

I'm not trying to be the cynic as I knew these replies would happen. I was just asking if there existed the possibility that we could have a quiet season (read:under 10 named storms) or is that just a pipedream.

I think we have a better chance of seeing 4 category 5 hurricanes this season then that occuring.

[clfenwi]

Some loosely connected thoughts:

-While we are starting to remember 2005 as the red hot season where 'everything developed', that wasn't the case. We did have invests that didn't pan out, and like this year this forum was looking at nice waves coming off Africa that never became much of anything.

-Things can change quickly in the tropics, here's a flashback to a year plus a day ago:

ABNT20 KNHC 271501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Nothing going on anytime soon, right? Wrong. A mere 36 hours later advisories were being released on Tropical Storm Bret.

- At the risk of making the point with a sledgehammer, it is worth pondering the Why is it so quiet? post (authored on August 20, 2005) in relation to how quiet the end of August was.

- It's not like it's been totally dead out there. After all,we probably came closer than we realize to having Tropical Storm Beryl yesterday. If maybe the system moved just a little bit slower, and tracked just a little bit more off the coast...

[Stormcenter]

Could it be that with climatology and history sort of throwing its ear to the wind, that we may end up with a quiet season, or is that being too optimistic?
(Yes, I realize its only now coming into July)

I knew one these posts were bound to surface.
It only takes one major hurricane to ruin many lives so I will leave it at that.

[gatorcane]

Could it be that with climatology and history sort of throwing its ear to the wind, that we may end up with a quiet season, or is that being too optimistic?
(Yes, I realize its only now coming into July)

I knew one these posts were bound to surface.
It only takes one major hurricane to ruin many lives so I will leave it at that.

To tgenius' defense, I think he/she is hoping for a quiet season and is not saying season cancel - he/she is just being optimisitic

[Scorpion]

Season cancel. Invests not forming into depressions in June! Oh the agony!

[Grease Monkey]

Uh oh. Here we go...

Man, 2005 has set the bar EXTREMELY high, apparently. Everybody's got to remember that last season was the greatest hurricane season of all time. That's not supposed to happen every season.

Anything is possible. It's possible that 1,000 years ago, we may have had 20 years in a row of seasons more extreme then 2005, so I don't believe 150 years of statistical research can possibly predict a solid pattern of what is supposed to be and what is not.

[Budro999]

Nothing unusual about the Atlantic season so far this year. What is a little strange, however, is that the Eastern Pacific has not had any named storms in the month of June so far.

[southerngale]

Let's not jump on tgenius. He/she wasn't saying that it was going to be a quiet season, nor was he saying this season was a dud. It seems to me that he was just asking if a quiet season was possible, or is that simply just too unlikely. There's nothing wrong with that. I'm sure many of us who were affected last year would love to share in that glimpse of optimism that this season would turn out quieter than expected.

[Grease Monkey]

Season cancel. Invests not forming into depressions in June! Oh the agony!

Scorpion we still have time. I think TS Beryl still has about 5 more hours to form to compete with last year. If it doesn't form by then, it's safe to say the season is cancelled.

[tgenius]

I'm a he, and living in Miami, and having lived through Andrew/Katrina/Wilma, I'm painfully aware that one storm can ruin your life. Thanks for the defense everyone, I'm just seeing if it was at all possible (as the deep and dirty weather stuff is all new for me, yes I'm technicaly a newb)

[bigmoney755]

SSTs are high (albeit not as insanely high as last year)

Actually, this is a false statement. SST's are higher this year than last.