INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[Aquawind]

Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86104

[NONAME]

U'm Your wrong on the other thread Derek their has been a LLC it was noted in the Tropical disc. yesterday I think. I believe then altough it has disappeared now, but a LLC was observed bye the NHC at one point with this wave.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is a rather vigorous tropical wave though.

[SouthFloridawx]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND WIND GUSTS TO 36 MPH
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON ST. LUCIA. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS... CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT... AND OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON
THURSDAY.

The following map shows the 18Z GFS @ 00 hour. The 300mb and 250mb levels, there is currently 10-30kts of shear over the system and this means development is not imminent as this is not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

It is possible that the system may have a chance if the shear abates to a lower level in the next 24-48 hours.

5-10kts of shear in 24 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
And generally 0-10 kts of shear in the central Caribbean in 48 hours.

This is all depending on the speed and the location of the wave in 48 hours and if in fact the shear does fall to a more favorable level.

As far as steering is concerned, it probably will not move northwest. At the 700 mb levels we see a general west to west-north west flow in the Central and Southern Caribbean.

As we have seen these models trending further and further south since last night.

[mvtrucking]

Quikscat: 5:12 pm(22:12 UTC )

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[caribepr]

As we have seen these models trending further and further south since last night.

We're liking that south thing lots! Sunny skies for the L O N G weekend ahead, happy visitors, cart OPEN!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The tutt is over the eastern caribbean north of 15 at 62 west. A shear zone has set up south of Hati/DR with 40 knot shear. It not at all faverable for development intill it makes it into the western part. In which the gfs shear models showing a Anticyclone developing by 4 days.

Also the shear is also starting to shear off any convection from the west side of the wave. Which is centered near at near 61 west.

Another thing is to wxman57 post I agree...I should not be calling that a LLC an there is really nothing to confirm it. I just call any swirl that is below 5k height a llc.(850 millibars). But on the other hand for derek v-max/LLC looks about the same. Yes it was likely open on the base, but how can you trust the quickscats with a weak system that is moving fast to the west?

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks like this system has rapidly slowed down...check out the loop...doesnt appear to be moving as fast...maybe the SW flow has slowed it down
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

there was no closed surface circulation, irregardless of the TWD. There were no west winds; thus, no LLC

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like shear is taking its toll, convection that was associated with this Invest has decreased.

[bvigal]

We just had some brief very heavy showers pass through, thunder and some great lightning just offshore.

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 61W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 54W-62W.
THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT
...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO TOMORROW...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[skysummit]

There are a few keywords in that discussion:

)"expected"
)"next day or so"

[CHRISTY]

Iam listening on IPR and iam agreeing with mike naso and mike watkins on a pattern shift maybe taking place.i will say this the gfs is showin a monster ridge across the atlantic.might it happen?well see.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like shear is taking its toll, convection that was associated with this Invest has decreased.

I dont know...it seems to be happening every night...besides, it seems that its got more convection tonite than last night

[Regit]

There are a few keywords in that discussion:

)"expected"
)"next day or so"

Well these are typical meteorological terms. If the NHC was using words like "definitely" and "permanently" it would be pretty safe to assume they're out to lunch.

[MiamiensisWx]

Right now, the system is under heavy shear from a mid-level to upper-level trough that is creating heavy shear at the middle and upper levels, as well as undercutting the surface close to the level of the wave axis. This process is clearly visible in this loop. Even as the trough pulls out, decreasing the shear slightly after a while, the synoptics indicate that shear may likely still impact the system a bit. As the wave axis moves through, sporadic convection generation and consolidation may be likely in the eastern and east-central to northeast Caribbean.

[NONAME]

Derek N/M what i just wrote but the NHC said there was a LLC=low level Circulation not closed so if it's a open but still spining not closed I know it's not a Tropical System but it still could have a LLC. Right.

Sorry abou the wording hope you can still understand

[cheezyWXguy]

according to the pic farther up the page of the models, theyve shifter considerably north, along w/ the extrapolated track

[gatorcane]

according to the pic farther up the page of the models, theyve shifter considerably north, along w/ the extrapolated track

interesting because based on sat pics this evening the wave "gives the appearance" it is moving more WNW to NW, although the strong SW shear could be giving off the illusion