Eyes on the BOC!

[HouTXmetro]

I guess the next few days will give us an idea if anything at all will get going.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[vbhoutex]

With the current obvious zonal flow and the predcition that it will continue for at least a few more days, I wouldn't hold my breath. However, as we all know, in the tropics anything can happen. I'd give it about a 15% chance of becoming anything that could affect the US and about 40% chance of something forming and affecting Mexico.

[HouTXmetro]

With the current obvious zonal flow and the predcition that it will continue for at least a few more days, I wouldn't hold my breath. However, as we all know, in the tropics anything can happen. I'd give it about a 15% chance of becoming anything that could affect the US and about 40% chance of something forming and affecting Mexico.

Yeah that flow is pretty strong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This flow will change though by late week when an onshore flow is forecast for TX.

[Yankeegirl]

We need some rain again, though I am enjoying the nice dry air...

[HouTXmetro]

We need some rain again, though I am enjoying the nice dry air...

The mosquito's are out of control in Southeast Harris County. The rain can stay away!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston evening AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
852 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE THIS EVENING.

STILL EXPECTING GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING THE END OF
THIS WEEK...ON INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
IF THE 18Z GFS RUN IS CORRECT (AND THAT IS A BIG IF LOOKING THIS FAR
OUT)...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING
TO 2 INCHES OR ABOVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING >2
INCHES ALL THE WAY OUT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY
MEAN A WET START TO JULY 2006 FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED! 42/32

[Yankeegirl]

I have to agree with you about the skeeters!! They are TERRIBLE!! I was going to get the mail and I got bit twice on the way to the mailbox!! Yea.. that is the downside of alotta rain here in the bayou city...

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z GFS shows rain starting Friday and lasting all the way through Day 16!!! A very wet period may be in the works.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Starburst]

Here is the Brownsville evening discussion. Looks like maybe we Texans may get saturated.

000
FXUS64 KBRO 290116
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
815 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...NAM V. GFS 18Z RUN SHOWS HUGE DIFFERENCES IN ALL MASS
FIELDS FOR RESOLUTION OF WX FRI THRU 06Z SUN. GFS BRINGS IN
SATURATED AMS WITH ABUNDANT H5 PVA LATE FRI PM ON HEALS OF SE FLOW
FM SFC TO H5...THEN S TO SW FLOW H4 TO H2. NAM SEES NONE OF
THIS...WITH FRI PM FLOW WEAK FM WEST AT H7...GENERALLY WEST WITH
HEIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY ATM IN MID LVLS AND LITTLE POPS (MAJOR QPF
DIFFERENCE) FRI THRU 06Z. AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CURRENT
TRENDS...CURRENT INIT CONCERNS WITH NAM...HPC ANALYSIS OF QPF
POTENTIAL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FM OTHER LONG RANGE MDLS WILL SKEW
THIS MET TO GFS SOLUTION THIS FCST PD. WITH THIS IN MIND...XPCT RAFL
FRI PM ADVANCING NW TO RGV...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSRAS
PERSISTING EARLY SAT AM...SCT AROUND SAT....THEN SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHRAS/TSRAS W/HVY RAFL SUN AND POSSIBLY MON PM IN RIPE ATM. WOULD
ADVISE A "HEIGHTENED STATE OF READINESS" FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL IN NEXT
ISSUANCE OF DEEP S TX ZNS IF 00Z RUNS CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not saying it has a chance. But I find the system on the same date as Bret last year+ in the same spot kind of interest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Starburst]

You are right Matt I had not even thought of that.

[mobilebay]

It is looking pretty healthy, looking at the latest nightime visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

However, I don't know how long it will remain in the BOC. If this still looks healthy later this morning, I think the NHC will mention it it in their 11:30 AM TWO. JMHO. Seems to be some kind of a circulation developing in the extreme southern BOC, right off the Coast. Things can happen pretty fast down in that area, as was mentioned earlier (Bret).

[KatDaddy]

Houston-Galveston Disc also pointing toward excessive rains

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES IN STORE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS FOURTH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN WITH
THE IDEA THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. EVIDENCE OF THIS MORE WET
PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN
LONG RANGE MODELING. THE ONCE-DRIER NAM IS NOW FEEDING INTO THE
HYPE AS THE 6Z RUN ALSO LEANS TOWARDS A MORE WET PATTERN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PACKAGE`S INCREASED POPS ARE REFLECTIVE OF THIS
BETTER MODELING ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. I HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WIDESPREAD QPF FROM DAY 3 OUT TO DAY 7 TO BETTER
COMMUNICATE THE THINKING OF THIS LARGER-SCALE PRECIPATION EVENT
SLATED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SE TX UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THOUGH TOMORROW. THE INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE AND GULF HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAIN CONTROL AS TODAY AND TOMORROW STAY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN LINE WITH CLIMO.
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE ON A TWIST AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOISTURE LEVELS PUMP UP
FROM THEIR CURRENT NEAR ONE INCH PWS TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES BY MID
SUNDAY. ENERGY RIDING UP THIS SW TO NE CHANNEL OF WEAKENED
RIDGING...OR LOWERED PRESSURES/HEIGHTS...FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
COME ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THEIR TIMING BEING THE ONLY UNKNOWN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND WORK ITS WAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS RANDOM VORT LOBES PASSING OVER US MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE ROBUST QPF TOTALS. THE MAIN QPF BULLS-EYES
ARE BEING CENTERED OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. IT MAY BE WORTHY TO MENTION THAT EXCESSIVE RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT LEADING UP TO
THE FOURTH DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEING CONDUCIVE TO
TRAINING-TYPE PRECIPITATION. MODELING ALSO ADVERTISING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

[KatDaddy]

Spcial Weather Statement from Corpus Christi NWS

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER
EASTERN MEXICO. A SOUTHERLY FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW COPIOUS MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND.

THROUGH SUNDAY...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE REPEATED
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling that another big flooding event is in store. Could be bad.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is going on? When I click on the NWS forecast it still only has 20% pops for our area next week....it hasn't changed in 2 days. According to the AFD the pops are going to be very high. Is it just my computer or have they just not updated their forecast? I find this quite strange.

BTW, I know the forecast can't be for 20% pops, because of this statement in their AFD:

I HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND WIDESPREAD QPF FROM DAY 3 OUT TO DAY 7

[HouTXmetro]

System looking better, if it wasn't so close to land we would have a player. Again, wait and See.

[skysummit]

Well, looking at this image, one might get concerned. LOL

[Portastorm]

South Central Texas is on guard as well as the trajectory of this system may hit us harder this time than last (i.e. we may get what SE Texas got 2 weeks ago. Yikes! )

Here is a snippet of what our Austin/San Antonio NWS office had to say in their early morning forecast discussion:

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES BEGINNING ON SATURDAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND SPREADING NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY TO INCLUDE THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.