Eyes on the BOC!

[PTrackerLA]

Please send some of the rain to the east this time! We missed out big time on the last rain event and we're running rainfall deficits over 12" for the year. Unfortunately, it looks like the bulk of the rain will once again be over Texas.

[TS Zack]

Ptrakker, we will get our fair share by the start of next week. A strong ridge will build off of Florida, allowing Southerly Flow to develop through the atmosphere.This will bump PW values to arund 2 inches by Monday. This combined with some surface heating will provide a chance for scattered storms. Also, if this tropical wave in the Caribbean makes it to the Gulf, it will just aid in increasing our rain chances.

[drezee]

I am starting to thing that a Low of some sort is forming in the Southern BOC. It will need to be watched, because the mean flow will would move it Northward.

[Yankeegirl]

I also noticed that we only have a 20% chance of rain for the next few days, I got an e mail from Jeff Linder and he seems quite concerned about the chances of heavy rain.. Go figure, I am taking the kids to the park today before it gets ugly out...

[Stratosphere747]

It's an old subject, but the Houston/Galveston area NWS seems to be a bit slow at times.

If you notice just to the south, they issued a sws over the possible event.

[Yankeegirl]

Dont know how to post this legally, but this is an e mail fron Jeff Linder reguarding this weekends threat of heavy rain... Let me know if I posted this the right way....thx!!
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Another significant heavy rainfall event is possible this weekend into early next week.

Shut off Gulf of Mexico will swing back open Friday as high pressure over the region shifts into the SE US opening the door for SE winds to pump moisture into TX. Tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche this morning will become entrained into the flow and move NNW toward the TX coast. PWS will increase from their current 1.0 inch range to over 2.0 inches by late Saturday. A piece of upper level energy breaks off and carves out a closed low over SC TX adding a venting component to the upper air across the coastal bend into SE TX. This setup is not all that different from the heavy rains and floods of last week…but the location may be further west across SC TX and the coastal bend.

For now we will see greatly enhanced rain chances by Saturday (50-70%) and this will continue into Monday. Thunderstorms should be numerous along the daily seabreeze boundary. Main concern is south to north training of cells that could quickly get areas in trouble with rainfall accumulations. With PWS over 2.0 inches hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be likely with overall 4 days QPF values of 3-5 inches and isolated 5-8 inch amounts. With that said I would not be surprised if somebody saw 10-15 inches of rain especially in the region from Corpus Christi to Galveston this weekend.

NE US Flooding:

Near record flooding is occurring along multiple rivers from the Mid Atl into the NE US after a week of rainfall. A slow moving upper level trough combined with a deep tropical moisture feed off the Atl to produce excessive rainfall over a large area. The mighty Susquehanna River is running 5-15 ft above flood stage across E PA and crested this morning a few feet below protective levees at Wilkes Barre, PA. Both the Schuylkill River and Delaware Rivers are well above flood stage across large portions of New York into New Jersey . A 24-hr rainfall record of over 7.5 inches was recorded Tuesday in Washington DC which led to widespread flooding in the metro areas. 5-day rainfall totals of 0-15 inches has been widespread from upstate New York south along the Appalachians into central Virginia .



Jeff Lindner

[Hyperstorm]

There is definitely a circulation that is located right on the coast of Mexico in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. I've been watching this system since it was in Central America and it's had a well-defined identity for quite some time.

Upper-level winds are marginally favorable right where it is now, but not too far north they are rather strong. Being that the upper level winds are out of the south, this latest burst of deep convection could steer it more northward.

If this system manages to move over water on its way NW (instead of remaining just inland), there is a very good potential of seeing a quick depression or storm during the next 24 hours...

[jasons2k]

It's an old subject, but the Houston/Galveston area NWS seems to be a bit slow at times.

If you notice just to the south, they issued a sws over the possible event.

It's well acknowledged in the AFDs that have come out. Also, statements were issued further south b/c that is the forecasted bullseye of highest precip. amounts.

[Yankeegirl]

Ok, even the weather channel forecast is spicking up on the higher chances of rain here for the next week or so... Thats just sad when the weather channel is on the ball...

Seems like the NOAA thinks that the rain is going to be more of an event for the folks down in south Texas... They have nice, high chances of rain, special weater statements and a hazardous weather outlook...

Any thoughts on this?

[HouTXmetro]

Gettign Interesting, I see a circulation but it's to close to land. If the flow allows this to move NNW to North watch out!!!

[vbhoutex]

Where's my crow? Man of man how quickly things chnage. Now it looks like at a minimum we will have a wet weekend in TX!!

[teal61]

Gettign Interesting, I see a circulation but it's to close to land. If the flow allows this to move NNW to North watch out!!!

I noticed that this morning. JB is still sticking to his guns about this eventually moving north. We shall see.

[Ivan14]

If it can just get in the water it has a very good shot at becoming beryl IMHO.

[Portastorm]

JB posted a midday update talking specifically about the southern Gulf (i.e Bay of Campeche). It has his attention as a potential troublemaker this weekend.

I think all of us in Texas really need to watch this one ...

[gatorcane]

lots of convection blowing up in the BOC now - lets see what happens

[corpusbreeze]

If there is a llc, it would appear to be on the sw side of the blow up. If that being the case it will be over land later today and in my opinion that would be the end of it. Although a big rain event could be setting up for S. Texas.

[Steve]

>>Ok, even the weather channel forecast is spicking up on the higher chances of rain here for the next week or so...

Texas freudian slip?

Steve

[Portastorm]

If there is a llc, it would appear to be on the sw side of the blow up. If that being the case it will be over land later today and in my opinion that would be the end of it. Although a big rain event could be setting up for S. Texas.

Not sure about that direction, mate. Last few satellite frames seem to indicate more of a northward component. I'm thinking the llc would be over water tomorrow.

[HouTXmetro]

Circulation on vis Looking good!!! IMO opinon it looks like a TD already, just no room left unless it moves due North. I doubt that happens.

IS there a possibilty the circulation can reform like Cindy did last year?

[southerngale]

If there is a llc, it would appear to be on the sw side of the blow up. If that being the case it will be over land later today and in my opinion that would be the end of it. Although a big rain event could be setting up for S. Texas.

Not sure about that direction, mate. Last few satellite frames seem to indicate more of a northward component. I'm thinking the llc would be over water tomorrow.

What would push it north? The local NWS doesn't even mention it, but their morning discussion was only 4 lines....literally.