Eyes on the BOC!

cheezyWXguy · #41 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:22 pm

unless it moves off land its not gonna be a td, whether it looks like it or not

HouTXmetro · #42 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:22 pm

southerngale wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
corpusbreeze wrote:If there is a llc, it would appear to be on the sw side of the blow up. If that being the case it will be over land later today and in my opinion that would be the end of it. Although a big rain event could be setting up for S. Texas.

Not sure about that direction, mate. Last few satellite frames seem to indicate more of a northward component. I'm thinking the llc would be over water tomorrow.

What would push it north? The local NWS doesn't even mention it, but their morning discussion was only 4 lines....literally.

Not sure, but the models are pushing the convection up the MX-TX coast. Some models even into LA. If this thing develops and some how manages to get over water. :eek:

Does anyone remember how quick Bret (I think) turned into a Monster before striking TX in the late 90's?

#43 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:23 pm

southerngale wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
corpusbreeze wrote:If there is a llc, it would appear to be on the sw side of the blow up. If that being the case it will be over land later today and in my opinion that would be the end of it. Although a big rain event could be setting up for S. Texas.

Not sure about that direction, mate. Last few satellite frames seem to indicate more of a northward component. I'm thinking the llc would be over water tomorrow.

What would push it north? The local NWS doesn't even mention it, but their morning discussion was only 4 lines....literally.

My sense is with the upper low still working over NE Mexico and a building ridge in the Gulf that, according to TPC, will build westward ... the overall flow in the upper level would push any system more towards the north and less towards the west.

But I'm now getting into technical meteorological discussions that I should leave to the pro mets on the board!

HouTXmetro · #44 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:30 pm

"Models continue to take this moisture up the Mexican coastal areas into southern TX or LA. The GFS & Nogaps show it more towards TX while the Canadian more towards LA."

Got this quote off another board. Would appreciate if anyone has links to these models, specificly the Canadian. Would like to know how this thing can end up in LA

boca · #45 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:32 pm

Didn't Audrey in 1957 start off this way.

#46 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:33 pm

Until 93L decides to do something, I think this one will be the show of the day.

southerngale · #47 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:37 pm

Thanks HouTXmetro and Portastorm. I didn't even know this little blob of convection was there until just a little while ago. I guess I'll check out the models now since I have outdoor plans for Saturday evening that were postponed from June 17th, the weekend it rained so much before the flooding on the following Monday. Hopefully, it won't get postponed again.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #48 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:37 pm

I guess I better get my row boat out moth balls.

We've gone to a 50% chance of showers to a 5-10 inch rain event in 24 hrs???? :eek:

BTW, Bastardi is somewhat concerned this MIGHT develop. We shall see.

HouTXmetro · #49 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:38 pm

skysummit wrote:Until 93L decides to do something, I think this one will be the show of the day.

Satellite indicates their is a broad circulation with this system. The question is if there is one developing at the surface.

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:39 pm

southerngale wrote:Thanks HouTXmetro and Portastorm. I didn't even know this little blob of convection was there until just a little while ago. I guess I'll check out the models now since I have outdoor plans for Saturday evening that were postponed from June 17th, the weekend it rained so much before the flooding on the following Monday. Hopefully, it won't get postponed again.

You should give it 24 hours before we starting getting too excited about it - the blob could just go poof at anytime - we don't know yet

southerngale · #51 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:
southerngale wrote:Thanks HouTXmetro and Portastorm. I didn't even know this little blob of convection was there until just a little while ago. I guess I'll check out the models now since I have outdoor plans for Saturday evening that were postponed from June 17th, the weekend it rained so much before the flooding on the following Monday. Hopefully, it won't get postponed again.

You should give it 24 hours before we starting getting too excited about it - the blob could just go poof at anytime - we don't know yet

I'm not excited about it. I just noticed it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #52 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:40 pm

Reminds me of Bret...Maybe this is his little brother.

#53 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:40 pm

southerngale wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
southerngale wrote:Thanks HouTXmetro and Portastorm. I didn't even know this little blob of convection was there until just a little while ago. I guess I'll check out the models now since I have outdoor plans for Saturday evening that were postponed from June 17th, the weekend it rained so much before the flooding on the following Monday. Hopefully, it won't get postponed again.

You should give it 24 hours before we starting getting too excited about it - the blob could just go poof at anytime - we don't know yet

I'm not excited about it. I just noticed it.

that is okay, but it does look a bit suspicious I have to admit

HouTXmetro · #54 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:
southerngale wrote:Thanks HouTXmetro and Portastorm. I didn't even know this little blob of convection was there until just a little while ago. I guess I'll check out the models now since I have outdoor plans for Saturday evening that were postponed from June 17th, the weekend it rained so much before the flooding on the following Monday. Hopefully, it won't get postponed again.

You should give it 24 hours before we starting getting too excited about it - the blob could just go poof at anytime - we don't know yet

It can, but I noticed the convection merging last night and has only gotten better. I very well can eat crow but I think we got a player IF and thats a big IF, it stays just offshore and progresses North.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #55 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:43 pm

I agree Houtexmetro.

JamesFromMaine2 · #56 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:44 pm

there is a low level circulation according to ground reports!

#57 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:45 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:there is a low level circulation according to ground reports!

I was calling for a NW Caribbean system early this week but looks like I was off to the east by a little - I called that earlier in the week.

So I guess I'll eat some crow but I just knew that wave was going to pop somewhere down the road...

#58 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:45 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:there is a low level circulation according to ground reports!

Links please James?

HouTXmetro · #59 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:49 pm

skysummit wrote:
JamesFromMaine2 wrote:there is a low level circulation according to ground reports!

Links please James?

Ive seen maps on another board and they drew bouy stations indicating a weak LLC.

no advance · #60 Postby **no advance** » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:53 pm

Looks too close to land. I am watching just north of PRico

Eyes on the BOC!

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