No, most of the models ran before this thing really took off. New models should be coming in later this afternoon though. Can't wait to see what they say.Rainband wrote:Does this "area" have any model support. I haven't seen anything. I guess we will have to see if it persists. Hope The area's of Texas that have recieved too much rain don't get too much more. I also hope the areas that need it get at least some. See I try to make everyone happy.Extremeweatherguy wrote:Oh, I know. I was just saying that i hope we don't have a Bret repeat where this thing rapidly explodes.Rainband wrote:whoa. Hold on a minute here. It's not even a depression yet. It's premature to say the least that this could become a major storm.Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB is now really biting. He said it will turn north tomorrow and at the VERY LEAST it will be a heavy rain maker for TX, but he said there is a chance it could become a TS or even Hurricane! He continued to mention 54' and 99', and both those years featured nice storms in the western Gulf (Ex. Breat in 99'). Looks like this has good potential...I just hope we don't get surprised by it rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane or something. THAT would be bad.Stay safe my western friends.
Eyes on the BOC!
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Extremeweatherguy
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Rainband
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HurricaneHunter914
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It can still significantly develop as long as the center stays away from land.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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no advance
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no advance
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JamesFromMaine2
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cheezywxman wrote:JamesFromMaine2 wrote:also pressures are falling slowly away from the possible center and winds are gusting to around 30mph away from the center
is that better or worse for development of the storm
well if pressures are droping away from the center then chances are they are droping in the center and so thats good for development!
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Portastorm
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Grease Monkey wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:JB is now really biting. He said it will turn north tomorrow and at the VERY LEAST it will be a heavy rain maker for TX, but he said there is a chance it could become a TS or even Hurricane! He continued to mention 54' and 99', and both those years featured nice storms in the western Gulf (Ex. Breat in 99'). Looks like this has good potential...I just hope we don't get surprised by it rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane or something. THAT would be bad.
He could be right, it depends how fast the storm is moving north. If its moving less than 10 mph it will have the chance to become a hurricane. If its moving over 10 mph probably a strong tropical storm. Remember the water in the GOM is extremely hot.
Yeah but remember there's strong shear eventually as you move further north.
I'd be curious to see what shear forecasts say for the weekend. Some are suggesting the shear relaxes more into the weekend. That would spell trouble.
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Opal storm
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JamesFromMaine2
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Heres a bouy and some land reports from near the center! some areas are down to 1012 mb from about 1015mb earlyer this afternoon and the bouy which is well north of the center started out with a pressure of 1018 and is now down to 1016
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=EST
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCE.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVA.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMMT.html
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=EST
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Lets see if this becomes Beryl,and a hurricane at that.-
PTrackerLA
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