94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#21 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:I think they said the same thing last year and we know how that turned out....


looks like the TAFB products do not show any low at this time at 72 Hours


Those products were most likely released before this BoC explosion.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#22 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:31 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is too high and increasing.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#23 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:31 pm

I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#24 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:33 pm

Holy Crap! I hope that doesn't happen.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Scorpion

#25 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:34 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.


Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#26 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:35 pm

So when is 2006 going to try to take the lead instead of trailing 2005. 2006 is currently such a poser. :cheesy:
0 likes   
Top
storm4u
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 651
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 7:26 am
Location: agawam, ma
Contact:
Contact storm4u

#27 Postby storm4u » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:35 pm

does anyone think this is going to be another gulf season!! If this does develop into anything that would already be 2 for 2 in the gulf of mexico!! :roll:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#28 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:37 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I can't beileve that Bret is coming back for the 2006 season. The same thing with Alberto, he formed 40 hours late from Arlene. If this is a repeat, then Chris will come out of 93L on July 2, 2006.


Heh, its possible. If 93L continues to track across the Caribbean and form near the Yucatan then voila, theres a repeat of Cindy :)

This is scary, this season is the same as 2005 only 40 hours late! That's only if everything goes as it should. 94L has to form first before all this comes to past. I don't know if it will form though.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146203
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:37 pm

Edited the title to the normal words in these kind of threads. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#30 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:39 pm

It looks like it's moving NW or NNW.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#31 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Beryl of 2000 was also a western gulf/Boc system. Wahoo come on Beryl!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#32 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:It looks like it's moving NW or NNW now and also i'm not sure but it looks like in the last few frames it's getting ready to be ripped apart, but who knows....

What are you seeing? It doesn't look like it's going to be ripped apart at all, in fact, it looks to be getting bigger and bigger and then the last frames it was doing something weird at the center.

The air around it is very moist, no dry air around it.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#33 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

Probably a wobble.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#34 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:48 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Probably a wobble.


Oh please....not this already.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#35 Postby hicksta » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:49 pm

LOL, how long till the model runs come out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#36 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:49 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:It looks like it's moving NW or NNW now and also i'm not sure but it looks like in the last few frames it's getting ready to be ripped apart, but who knows....

What are you seeing? It doesn't look like it's going to be ripped apart at all, in fact, it looks to be getting bigger and bigger and then the last frames it was doing something weird at the center.

The air around it is very moist, no dry air around it.


Darn you caught me. I tried to edit what I wrote in time. I was looking at the very bottom half that looked like it was getting split near the last few frames, but I guess I was looking in the wrong spot.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#37 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:50 pm

This is what the nhc should say.

A tropical distrabance over the southwestern BOC is slowly moving northward. In surface obs and satellite shows that a LLC is forming. Convection is organizing over that LLC. In a tropical depression or storm maybe forming at any time.

A recon plane is planed for later today.

This is what I plan to see from the nhc

A area of convection is over the BOC, which has upper level shear and closeness to land should make any development slow.

With no tropical storm development next couple of days.

Kind of like that.
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#38 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Hey Skysummit I'm just saying. :roll:
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#39 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

Another INVEST !!!!!!!!!!??????? Yeowser.. Seems like alot of INVESTS.. Have they changed the selection process? lol Wobble talk..LOL Ohh Man... I gotta check this out.. Visable had some rotation but nuttin to impressive this AM.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#40 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:52 pm

has caught me by surprise


However, the cyclonic turning (not an LLC, just cyclonic turning) appears very close to land
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Kazmit, MetroMike, tolakram and 41 guests