94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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gatorcane
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#261 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:38 pm

skysummit wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.


Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?


If you think about it, we have seen no SIGNIFICANT development since Alberto and that was over 3 weeks ago - we could easily see another month of just "teasers" but then again who knows...
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#262 Postby corpusbreeze » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:39 pm

Here is a question. Does the shape of the landmass have anything on the the development or strenght of a hurricane? If you look where 94l is, it would seem the shape of the Mexican coast could help the development of this system because of the round bowl shape of the coast. Since it does not appear the system will move inland I just wonder if the shape of the coast could help it along? I think JB has made mention of this before, of course it was with a full blown hurricane.
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#263 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
I think that can almost be considered -removed-. How do you know for a fact that nothing will develop for 4-5 weeks? Also, if it (94L) is "gone", how come the NHC is saying it has a chance? That makes no sense to me at all.
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#264 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:45 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
I think that can almost be considered -removed-. How do you know for a fact that nothing will develop for 4-5 weeks? Also, if it is "gone", how come the NHC is saying it has a chance? That makes no sense to me at all.


He is pro met, so that helps. Also the NHC basically is blowing it off in so many words...
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#265 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:47 pm

Right now if it goes over land soon it will be "gone", but right now it looks like this is taking a NNW track which might bring this system into Texas giving some time to develop a bit.
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#266 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:47 pm

I seriously hope we don't have a significant system bearing down on the U.S. in a few days after most on this site have already seemed to write off 94L.
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#267 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
I think that can almost be considered -removed-. How do you know for a fact that nothing will develop for 4-5 weeks? Also, if it is "gone", how come the NHC is saying it has a chance? That makes no sense to me at all.


He is pro met, so that helps. Also the NHC basically is blowing it off in so many words...
why would the NHC do that? If they thought it had no chance they would simply say, "no TC development is expected".
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#268 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:51 pm

From the Houston NWS Evening AFD:

ALL EYES WILL TURN TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON
INTO NEXT WEEK AS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND TEXAS. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL RUNS STILL
INDICATE A WET START TO THE NEW MONTH. 42/32
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#269 Postby stormtruth » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:51 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.


Nothing for 4-5 weeks? That sounds about as likely as when you said Alberto would dissipate.
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#270 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:51 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear right now is increasing over the system but it looks like its moving into more favorable conditions.
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#271 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:53 pm

I'll go out on a limb and say it is weaking at the moment because o shear and it it is spliting like JB said and will strengthin tommorow.
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#272 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
I think that can almost be considered -removed-. How do you know for a fact that nothing will develop for 4-5 weeks? Also, if it is "gone", how come the NHC is saying it has a chance? That makes no sense to me at all.


He is pro met, so that helps. Also the NHC basically is blowing it off in so many words...


Unforturnately I don't think we will have to wait 4-5 weeks for the next named storm. I think we will see something develop by no later than mid-July.
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#273 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:54 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Shear right now is increasing over the system but it looks like its moving into more favorable conditions.
yes, if that bullseye of decreasing shear over Mexico can move east then we may have problems.
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#274 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:54 pm

stormtruth wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.


Nothing for 4-5 weeks? That sounds about as likely as when you said Alberto would dissipate.


Or rather it would move into the BOC and then into Mexico. But, hey lets not be picky. He is allowed to have his own opinion and he is a pro-met so let's respect what he said and move on in the discussion.
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#275 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Shear right now is increasing over the system but it looks like its moving into more favorable conditions.
yes, if that bullseye of decreasing shear over Mexico can move east then we may have problems.


Thing is though, 94L is the type of situation where it could blowup tonight during the diurnal phase and take us for surpise by tomorrow - we shall see. I cannot completely write it off yet.
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#276 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:57 pm

Well right now in my opinion if 94L does blow up it might have a better chance at becoming Beryl.
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#277 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:57 pm

This blow up of convection didn't take place till this afternoon. Could be that another pulse begins in the morning to mid afternoon timeframe. All the earlier convection seems to have stabilized the UL's for the time being.
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#278 Postby corpusbreeze » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:58 pm

WOW... get some thunder storms in the BOC with a slight twist and watch this board light up! Yee Haa, let the rain begin! Which by the way is all this is going to be. :D
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#279 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:58 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:This blow up of convection didn't take place till this afternoon. Could be that another pulse begins in the morning to mid afternoon timeframe. All the earlier convection seems to have stabilized the UL's for the time being.
I agree. At this stage the convective bursts usually come and go. Once they can become steady is when things start to stregthen into a TD or TS.
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#280 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
I agree with all that except that last sentence,last time you said that Alberto formed like a week later. :wink:

I will still keep a glance at 93L though.
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