94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Stratosphere747]

Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Nothing for 4-5 weeks? That sounds about as likely as when you said Alberto would dissipate.

Or rather it would move into the BOC and then into Mexico. But, hey lets not be picky. He is allowed to have his own opinion and he is a pro-met so let's respect what he said and move on in the discussion.

Let him respond to the comment I made earlier, and is in no way defending 57, he is a big boy.....

HOWEVER...A SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

NHC discussion...

[NONAME]

This is when weak disturbances normally lose convection then ramp up before morning and during the day then lose at night again while it is still weak.

[gatorcane]

Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Nothing for 4-5 weeks? That sounds about as likely as when you said Alberto would dissipate.

Or rather it would move into the BOC and then into Mexico. But, hey lets not be picky. He is allowed to have his own opinion and he is a pro-met so let's respect what he said and move on in the discussion.

Let him respond to the comment I made earlier, and is in no way defending 57, he is a big boy.....

HOWEVER...A SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

NHC discussion...

WxMan57 is a pro met in my book not a big boy

[Aquawind]

Whatch your tone Stratosphere747.. No need to get lippy.. Check your PM!

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe I should clarify, even though this is getting way off-topic...In regards to Alberto.

The NHC within their discussions the following morning of some of what the pro-mets here felt, verified what they were seeing..

The comment refrence was to "stormtruth" who seems to be calling him out....

57 does not need me to defend him....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a nice twist may be forming on the SW side of 94L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[wxman57]

Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?

As I looked back on the last 100 or so years, in half the seasons the first storm formed in August. So it's not that rare to go through June/July without a named storm. It almost seems as though some of you actually want a storm to develop out there. I'd be perfectly happy if the season ended with Alberto.

[Opal storm]

Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?

As I looked back on the last 100 or so years, in half the seasons the first storm formed in August. So it's not that rare to go through June/July without a named storm.

Our first storm of the season formed this month,not August. So I wouldn't put too much faith in climo,especially considering the amount of tropical disturbances we've had lately.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I looked at the loop and I don't see a circulation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?

As I looked back on the last 100 or so years, in half the seasons the first storm formed in August. So it's not that rare to go through June/July without a named storm.

Our first storm of the season formed this month,not August. So I wouldn't put too much faith in climo,especially considering the amount of tropical disturbances we've had lately.

I'd agree with you there Opal storm. After the last two years I wouldn't bet on anything "typical" this season.

[Scorpion]

I see some signs of banding, no?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I looked at the loop and I don't see a circulation.

Yeah, it is tough to tell. There may not be a distinct one right now, just trying to point it out to see what others would say.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see some signs of banding, no?

who said anything about banding?

[wxman57]

Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?

As I looked back on the last 100 or so years, in half the seasons the first storm formed in August. So it's not that rare to go through June/July without a named storm.

Our first storm of the season formed this month,not August. So I wouldn't put too much faith in climo,especially considering the amount of tropical disturbances we've had lately.

There is typically a small peak in activity the 2nd-3rd week of June, followed by a sharp lull in late June through much of July. I'm not sure why that is, but I can see it in every study I've done. Conditions across the tropics are definitely much less favorable for development than they were this time last year.

Typically, about 10 to 15% of all tropical waves develop. But that percentage is spread out across the whole season. The chances are much greater during August-September and much less than 10-15% in June/July and Oct-Nov. So maybe 1 in 15 or 20 waves, on average, might be expected to develop this time of year.

Last season I counted about 55-58 significant tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa (66 total disturbances including the waves and other non-wave features). About 45% of those developed, though. That's quite a high percentage (and we started counting the 3rd week of May). So far this season, we're right about tied with 2005 for the number of waves for late June, but they're much farther south and weaker than in 2005.

[skysummit]

RAMSDIS has Floater #2 over the Invest.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Scorpion]

I see some signs of banding, no?

who said anything about banding?

I guess I'm out of my mind

[wxman57]

I looked at the loop and I don't see a circulation.

Yeah, it is tough to tell. There may not be a distinct one right now, just trying to point it out to see what others would say.

I actually see what you're looking at, Extremeweatherguy. I do see a mid-level spin on the coast of Mexico. It's visible now because the thunderstorms died out. But it's definitely aloft. You can't see the low clouds too well at night and surface obs indicate pressures are pretty high.

[Extremeweatherguy]

RAMSDIS has Floater #2 over the Invest.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

finally!

[stormtruth]

Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?

As I looked back on the last 100 or so years, in half the seasons the first storm formed in August. So it's not that rare to go through June/July without a named storm. It almost seems as though some of you actually want a storm to develop out there. I'd be perfectly happy if the season ended with Alberto.

Shouldn't you at least look more closely at the last five or ten years for recent trends? Even some experts who don't think global warming has an impact still believe we are in a cycle of increased activity.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Anyway, Global Warming also melts the ice caps which adds more cold water to the tropics which would make the water slightly cooler.