MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
   
   VALID 291920Z - 292215Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS FAR SCENTRAL
   SD/NCENTRAL NEB ALONG OR NEAR WARM FRONT/SFC LOW. OVERALL SVR THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND WITH EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPTS /UPPER 50S-LOWER
   60S/ EXTENDS NWWD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ALONG WITH THESE DEWPTS HAS CONTRIBUTED
   TO DIMINISHING CINH /LESS THAN 25 J/KG PER RECENT RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDING/. A FEW MORE HRS OF HEATING COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY WEAK
   MID LEVEL FLOW /AOB 20 KTS/ AND GENERALLY LIGHT SLY FLOW IN THE
   CLOUD BASE LAYER SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ONLY WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES /INVERTED-V
   TYPE SOUNDING STRUCTURE/ INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
   
   43509990 43710073 43600206 43000262 42790261 42740252
   42570204 42600061 42740011 42859972 42959957

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291921Z - 292015Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
   
   LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AND FORCING IS SPREADING
   EAST ACROSS VA AT ROUGHLY 20 KT...PER DEEPENING CU FIELD AND
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
   WATER/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM SERN MD INTO
   CNTRL NJ...ALONG/EAST OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.  OFFSHORE TROUGH
   APPEARS TO BE LIMITING CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR THIS
   REASON IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH
   WILL PROVE NECESSARY FOR STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION.  CURRENT THINKING
   IS WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE D.C. METRO AREA
   BEFORE ENCOUNTERING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
   DEVELOPMENT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS THIS REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   37517730 39117694 40447598 40337422 38467487 37127586

[Jim Cantore]

I'm about to get hit by the northern edge of one.

[Jim Cantore]

Look how quick this fired up

[Jim Cantore]

Having a sun shower now.

[Jim Cantore]

now I have a rainbow off to the east

[Jim Cantore]

I'm getting quite the lightning show right now.

[Jim Cantore]

I just got back inside and it was unreal. I flinched every 15 seconds. Lightning was coming from every direction. one flash was so bright I almost dropped to the ground.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
   
   VALID 292047Z - 292315Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KS MAY POSE A BRIEF/MARGINAL DMGG
   WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   LATEST VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A
   PSEUDO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION.
   THE OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDED FROM NEAR HOXIE SEWD TO NEAR GREAT BEND
   TO HUTCHINSON. MODERATE SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KTS/ WILL SLOWLY
   INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET RELATIVELY WEAK
   MID LEVEL FLOW /10 KTS/ TO SUPPORT FOR SOME MARGINAL UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION. DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
   GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   39259986 39110061 38340065 38060045 37850002 37589977
   37479893 37559765 38089723 38439730 38879902

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SCENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292154Z - 292345Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER
   
   CONVECTION MOVING SWWD OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM MAY POSE A DMGG WIND
   THREAT AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SCENTRAL AZ IN THE NEXT
   FEW HRS.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT/RADAR DATA SHOWS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   CONTINUES TO OCCUR ALONG SWWD MOVING OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER THE MOGOLLON
   RIM. OUTFLOW WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY 2-3 MB/2HR PRESSURE RISES NOTED
   ON THE RECENT OBS AT FLG. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY/TSTMS OVER THE PHX METRO AREA AND LOWER FOOTHILLS WAS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEPLY
   MIXED ENVIRONMENT WAS SUPPORTING DCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG
   PER MODIFIED 12Z PHX SOUNDING. THUS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING
   FLOW /10-15 KTS ENELY MID LEVEL WINDS/...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
   FOCUSED LIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STG-SVR
   CONVECTION WITH AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND/DUST STORM THREAT OVER LOWER
   ELEVATIONS/DESERT FLOOR. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF OUTFLOW BNDRY
   MOTION WOULD TAKE THE DMGG WIND THREAT INTO THE PHX METRO AREA
   BETWEEN 23-01Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   33021046 34141136 34661224 34611261 34471295 34241315
   34091313 33401268 32551153 32381116 32401063

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...
   
   VALID 292236Z - 300000Z
   
   SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT
   NNEWD ACROSS FAR ERN NY...WRN MA...SRN/NWRN VT AND SWRN NH WITHIN
   DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME.  THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
   BAND OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NY...WHICH IS DIRECTLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD UPPER TROUGH
   /500 MB TEMPERATURES -14 TO -17C/ MOVING EWD OVER THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION. THE COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
   WITH STRONGER CELLS. 40-45 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING NEWD
   ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...DESPITE MODEST MLCAPE OF
   GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG. THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44377580 45017454 44967241 44877143 44197147 43047186
   42047200 41567237 41447337 41587437 42107467 42857471
   42867511 44017521

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...CENTRAL/SRN ID AND SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561...
   
   VALID 300021Z - 300215Z
   
   EARLIER CONVECTIVE LINE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER WCENTRAL ID.
   RENEWED DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND BITTERROOT
   MTNS...BUT OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING ATTM. THUS WW 561
   MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 04Z EXPIRATION TIME.
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER VORT OVER NERN ORE...WITH SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SCENTRAL ID. AIRMASS OVER
   WCENTRAL/SWRN ID AND SERN ORE APPEARS TO BE ENCOUNTERING SUBSIDENCE
   ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER VORT. IN ADDITION...PREVIOUS
   CONVECTIVE LINE HAS STABILIZED LOW LEVELS /PER THE 00Z BOI
   SOUNDING/. THUS ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN
   SUB-SEVERE IN SWRN/WCENTRAL ID AND SERN ORE. STRONG CONVECTION NEAR
   UPPER VORT CENTER IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME SVR GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
   COVER JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF MAIN
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER
   THE CENTRAL MTNS OF ID EWD INTO THE BITTERROOT MTNS OF SWRN MT.
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA IN THE NEXT HR OR SO
   GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR COUPLED WITH THIS INSTABILITY. IF
   STG-SVR CONVECTION FAILS TO MATERIALIZE IN THIS AREA BEFORE
   02Z...THEN WW 561 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   46341381 46171579 45261528 43801450 43121410 43141333
   43311222 44241252

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...
   
   VALID 300026Z - 300130Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING NEWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY INTO VT AND WRN NH...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
   UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NY AND PA. DYNAMIC
   FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   HOWEVER...CURRENT STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...AND
   ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL
   STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORM MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
   30/01Z.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
   
   42027467 42897473 44267457 44957421 44957188 44827151
   43827139 42627203 41637222 41477347 41667448

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562...
   
   VALID 300037Z - 300230Z
   
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRYS AND ASSOCIATED DMGG WIND/BLOWING DUST
   THREAT WILL MOVE SWWD THROUGH THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 02Z. IN
   ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SLOW
   MOVING TSTMS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BNDRYS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
   OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SEWD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF I-10 BETWEEN
   PHX AND TUS.
   
   RADAR DATA SHOWS TWO WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRYS EXTENDING OVER THE
   NRN SUBURBS AND ERN SUBURBS OF THE PHX METRO AREA. NEAR SVR WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST LIKELY WHERE THESE BNDRYS MERGE AS THEY
   MOVE THROUGH THE PHX METRO AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. AS THE WRN MOST
   BNDRY ENCOUNTERS DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W-SW
   OF THE PHX METRO AREA /HARQUAHALA AND KOFA MTNS/...IT MAY AID IN AN
   INCREASING SVR WIND THREAT OVER FAR NWRN MARICOPA AND SRN LA PAZ
   COUNTIES AFTER 02Z. BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BNDRYS...A BROKEN LINE OF
   STG-SVR TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WINDS AND LOCALLY HVY
   RAINFALL GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 5 KTS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   34301413 32261273 31481209 32581091 34341213

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY/ERN PA/EXTREME WRN CT/NJ/ERN MD/DE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...
   
   VALID 300114Z - 300245Z
   
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN PA
   SWD ACROSS THE MD ERN SHORE INTO SERN VA.  THIS CONVECTION IS
   LOCATED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL PA INTO NRN VA...AND SHOULD CONTINUING SPREADING EWD DURING
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  00Z SOUNDINGS AT IAD AND WAL EXHIBIT
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35 KT IN LOWEST 6 KM/ TO MAINTAIN
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING WILL RESULT IN A STABILIZATION TREND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS
   EFFECT WILL BE MODERATED BY EWD PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL THERMAL
   TROUGH.  POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
   BE DECREASING.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
   37727514 38087663 38117758 38667754 39277718 40567584
   41157551 41767515 41767395 41457343 40917331 39967376

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MD ERN SHORE/DE/NJ/ERN PA/EXTREME SERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...
   
   VALID 300221Z - 300315Z
   
   SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 1-2 HRS ACROSS EXTREME ERN PA/WRN
   NJ/NRN DE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE
   ATLANTIC COAST AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE
   ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 03-04Z...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES
   OVERNIGHT.  THUS...WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 30/03Z.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
   
   37927542 38127586 39147606 39747606 40367532 40657466
   40877410 40617371 39457411 37987502

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN...EASTERN MAINE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301859Z - 302030Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   MAINLY DOWNEAST MAINE...
   
   BIMODAL UPPER VORT STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED WITHIN MEAN TROUGH OVER
   SERN CANADA/NERN U.S.  LEAD VORT IS VISIBLE JUST NORTH OF NH/ME
   BORDER IN SERN QUEBEC...WHILE SECONDARY VORT IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
   SERN ONTARIO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
   SUNSHINE HAS AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH EACH OF THESE
   FEATURES...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN ME.  SQUALL LINE-TYPE STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED FROM
   PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...SWWD INTO KENNEBEC COUNTY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   MOVING EAST AT ROUGHLY 20-25 KT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO
   MAINTAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED QUASI LINEAR MODE.  COLD THERMAL PROFILES
   AND ROUGHLY 500 MLCAPE VALUES SUGGEST HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
   
   43946974 45296878 46466837 45876727 44116829

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT/NW ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301943Z - 302145Z
   
   ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTN WITH MAIN THREAT OF
   STRONG/SVR DOWNBURST WINDS...
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW
   OVER NE MT. THIS WAVE IS HELPING TO INITIATE TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS. STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. LOCAL
   RADAR IMAGERY FROM GLASGOW INDICATES THE STRONGEST STORM IS OVER
   GARFIELD COUNTY. THIS STORM RECENTLY PRODUCED A 61 MPH GUST W OF
   JORDAN. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING THROUGH MCCONE AND DAWSON
   COUNTIES. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   /PER LOCAL VAD WIND DATA/...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR
   STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   47100212 46700728 48390746 48920601 48940161 47770144

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ND/NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302147Z - 302345Z
   
   ...A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF ND INTO NW
   MN...
   
   ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF
   ND...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. ENVIRONMENTAL
   CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC
   CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED ACROSS ERN ND...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A THIN LINE OF CUMULUS
   ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS. OBSERVED
   SOUNDING AT 18Z FROM BISMARCK INDICATED THERE WAS STILL A CAP AT
   THAT TIME...BUT MODIFYING THE 18Z SOUNDING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
   SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THIS INHIBITION AS TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED UP INTO
   THE 90S. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
   WEAKENING CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WITH
   0-6KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP QUICKLY WHEN INITIATION OCCURS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   44219689 45859919 48490098 49109956 48929706 48529607
   46569570 44879572

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN ORE/WA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
   CASCADES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302151Z - 302315Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING. GREATEST THREATS SHOULD BE FROM ISOLATED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND/OR HAIL. 
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN ORE
   AT THIS TIME WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OFF THE
   NRN CA COAST...WITH THESE LATTER FEATURES TRACKING TOWARD ORE.
   ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM COMBINED WITHIN AN UNCAPPED/MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG/JUST
   EAST OF THE ORE CASCADES IN NERN LANE/SERN LINN COUNTIES.  18Z RUC
   SUGGESTED ASCENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
   LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   SHOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
   THREAT FOR HAIL APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...
   
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