94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[southerngale]

But this is right now moving probably at around 5-10 mph, so I'm sure our fellow Texans will have a dry 4th of July.

I'm glad you're sure because the local mets on TV as well as the NWS sure don't think so. Every holiday this year that could bring out swimming/BBQ among my family has been rained out, the last 2 were Memorial Day and Father's Day, resulting in flooding here. So I do so hope you are right and the local mets and the NWS are wrong. It would nice to have an outdoor holiday outdoors.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

What I see on this forum are a lot of people who just cannot wait for that next storm. They want to believe that any puff of clouds in the tropics will be the next big hurricane. One might call that, well, that's considered a "bad word" here.

Oh, I was there once years ago when I was a kid. I wanted the next storm to develop so badly that I could taste it. Shear? What shear? Surely the shear will weaken! I need a storm now! But I'm in a position now that requires me to brief people who are making decisions that could cost them over a BILLION dollars! So I have to be very careful what I say about potential development in the tropics.

Believe me, when I see something that really looks like a threat to develop I'll be all over it here. If I'm bullish on development, you'd better pay attention.

I don't see that. Instead I see the shear maps showing a decrease, the satellites showing a blow up in convection, and other pro mets saying it has a chance. I don't see how this is -removed-. I see this more as concern. If something does develop I want to know about it as soon as possible so I can be prepared if it heads my way, but I am in no way wishing it here.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well anything can happen for all we know this will start racing at 100 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

But this is right now moving probably at around 5-10 mph, so I'm sure our fellow Texans will have a dry 4th of July.

I'm glad you're sure because the local mets on TV as well as the NWS sure don't think so. Every holiday this year that could bring out swimming/BBQ among my family has been rained out, the last 2 were Memorial Day and Father's Day, resulting in flooding here. So I do so hope you are right and the local mets and the NWS are wrong. It would nice to have an outdoor holiday outdoors.

[Kennethb]

We'll gladly swap our sun, heat and low humidity here in Baton Rouge so you can have an outdoor holiday outdoors.

[drezee]

JB's comment this morning:

TROPICS: THE PLOT IN THE GULF THICKENS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well actually right now, sorry about this, but you guys will probably get some heavy rainds from this.

[southerngale]

We'll gladly swap our sun, heat and low humidity here in Baton Rouge so you can have an outdoor holiday outdoors.

I wish we could. After being in a severe drought for much of the year, we've been bombarded with a lot of rain and flooding twice in June. I believe y'all need the rain, we don't...I'd gladly send it your way if I could.

[Portastorm]

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

What I see on this forum are a lot of people who just cannot wait for that next storm. They want to believe that any puff of clouds in the tropics will be the next big hurricane. One might call that, well, that's considered a "bad word" here.

Oh, I was there once years ago when I was a kid. I wanted the next storm to develop so badly that I could taste it. Shear? What shear? Surely the shear will weaken! I need a storm now! But I'm in a position now that requires me to brief people who are making decisions that could cost them over a BILLION dollars! So I have to be very careful what I say about potential development in the tropics.

Believe me, when I see something that really looks like a threat to develop I'll be all over it here. If I'm bullish on development, you'd better pay attention.

Very well said, Wxman57. Very well said!

I would like to add my voice to others here when I assure all of you that when guys like Wxman57 and AirForceMet are bullish on development, then we all better take cover!

Over the years I have seen some of us get all excited about "a puff of clouds" and we're convinced it's the next Beryl or Claudette or whatever ... then one of these guys pipes in with the facts and in most cases, they end up being right.

Now, it's kinda fun to get excited about the BOC action right now ... but let's not get carried away and start evacuating coastline just yet!

[bigmoney755]

How many months will it take for this amount of wind shear to go away? I'm not sure how we can even get a tropical storm with a ton a wind shear.

[stormtruth]

Last thing anyone should do is go outside in the heat, drink beer and eat the typical July 4th food anyway -- that's dangerous. Be thankful that tropical weather forces you indoors where you can eat some nice veggies, drink some cool refreshing water and watch the tropics on your PC.

[southerngale]

Last thing anyone should do is go outside in the heat, drink beer and eat the typical July 4th food anyway -- that's dangerous. Be thankful that tropical weather forces you indoors where you can eat some nice veggies, drink some cool refreshing water and watch the tropics on your PC.

Hey, bite me!

Swimming is good for you, I don't drink beer, and I almost always eat healthy, low-fat foods. What I eat on a daily basis would bore most people, but nothing wrong with a grilled burger every once in a while.

[bigmoney755]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301440
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SURFACE
PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB's comment this morning:

TROPICS: THE PLOT IN THE GULF THICKENS.

that was actually for last night. He has not posted yet this morning.

[TampaFl]

JB's comment this morning:

TROPICS: THE PLOT IN THE GULF THICKENS.

That was his title quote from his discussion last night, not this mornings discusiion which is not out yet (as of this post).


Robert .

[stormtruth]

Last thing anyone should do is go outside in the heat, drink beer and eat the typical July 4th food anyway -- that's dangerous. Be thankful that tropical weather forces you indoors where you can eat some nice veggies, drink some cool refreshing water and watch the tropics on your PC.

Hey, bite me!

Swimming is good for you, I don't drink beer, and I almost always eat healthy, low-fat foods. What I eat on a daily basis would bore most people, but nothing wrong with a grilled burger every once in a while.

That's true!

[Yankeegirl]

Still have a 20% chance of rain for the Houston area over the next week or so... I did see the modles have put this blob more north now, closer to a Texas strike then a Mexico one... Oh well... Going to finish some yard work now before it rains again...

[stormtruth]

WXman57 you remind me of a guy named FranK that used to be here..he used to kill any kind of development(not saying this will develop) and one day Katrina formed after he said no way...an I have not seen him since..LOL

What I see on this forum are a lot of people who just cannot wait for that next storm. They want to believe that any puff of clouds in the tropics will be the next big hurricane. One might call that, well, that's considered a "bad word" here.

Oh, I was there once years ago when I was a kid. I wanted the next storm to develop so badly that I could taste it. Shear? What shear? Surely the shear will weaken! I need a storm now! But I'm in a position now that requires me to brief people who are making decisions that could cost them over a BILLION dollars! So I have to be very careful what I say about potential development in the tropics.

Believe me, when I see something that really looks like a threat to develop I'll be all over it here. If I'm bullish on development, you'd better pay attention.

Very well said, Wxman57. Very well said!

I would like to add my voice to others here when I assure all of you that when guys like Wxman57 and AirForceMet are bullish on development, then we all better take cover!

Over the years I have seen some of us get all excited about "a puff of clouds" and we're convinced it's the next Beryl or Claudette or whatever ... then one of these guys pipes in with the facts and in most cases, they end up being right.

Now, it's kinda fun to get excited about the BOC action right now ... but let's not get carried away and start evacuating coastline just yet!

It's somewhat of a straw man argument. Everyone here is at least focusing on invests and not a "puff of clouds" but it would be interesting (or frightening) to see a system they are actually bullish about.

[skysummit]

Another image of the 12z models:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still have a 20% chance of rain for the Houston area over the next week or so... I did see the modles have put this blob more north now, closer to a Texas strike then a Mexico one... Oh well... Going to finish some yard work now before it rains again...

actually rain chances are 50% tomorrow and 60% on Sunday. The reason it shows 20% on the website is because it has not been updated or something for days! It is weird. Anyway, here is the text version (from the discussion) precip. chances:

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 71 90 72 88 / 10 10 40 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 73 90 74 88 / 20 20 50 40 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 79 88 80 87 / 20 20 50 40 60

Actually though according to a recent update, they are also raising pops today too. Looks like a wet weather few days are in store!

BTW, here is the full earlier discussion if you have not read it yet:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
309 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. A WEAKNESS AT 500
MB...COUPLED WITH PW`S IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND BROADLY DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SPELL SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN. THE PW`S ARE
NEARLY TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE
GFS IS ALSO SHOWING SEVERAL STRONG VORTS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S AND VIRTUALLY NO CAPPING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. 250 MB
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS SO DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING TROPICAL
IS UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE? EITHER WAY...THIS MOISTURE WILL
HEAD NORTH TODAY.

THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS EVENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SO
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS
ON THE WAY. STORM MOTION WILL VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KNOTS SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LOW OR SFC BOUNDARY BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW A WIDER
AREAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRECIP BUT THE GFS PUSHES A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE ARE WED/THU. THIS FEATURE WILL FOCUS
PRECIP AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD AGAIN OCCUR. THIS TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF MORNING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PROBABLY LASTING INTO
TUESDAY.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE TEMPS BEGINNING SUNDAY. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. 43