94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Johnny]

I would say that it is continuing to look better and better with each passing .

I agree. Nothing from JB yet EWG?

[no advance]

It would be nice to get this stuff over in the SWest US

[curtadams]

I think wxman57 nailed it. The entire area of disturbance (which extends well into inland Mexico) is rotating ccw around a spot inland around 21.5N 98W. So, yeah, it went inland. While it's possible that the convection out in the BOC could relocate the center they're behind the 8-ball. The overall circulation which is moving them north now will bring them onto the coast in a day or so, and the steering is still WNW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think wxman57 nailed it. The entire area of disturbance (which extends well into inland Mexico) is rotating ccw around a spot inland around 21.5N 98W. So, yeah, it went inland. While it's possible that the convection out in the BOC could relocate the center they're behind the 8-ball. The overall circulation which is moving them north now will bring them onto the coast in a day or so, and the steering is still WNW.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. The swirl I see is over water at about 95.5W 20.5N.

[HouTXmetro]

I think wxman57 nailed it. The entire area of disturbance (which extends well into inland Mexico) is rotating ccw around a spot inland around 21.5N 98W. So, yeah, it went inland. While it's possible that the convection out in the BOC could relocate the center they're behind the 8-ball. The overall circulation which is moving them north now will bring them onto the coast in a day or so, and the steering is still WNW.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. The swirl I see is over water.

I see the same swirl too. But my opinion is based observation. I have no facts to back up what is happenening besides what I see. Majority of the time I'm wrong.

[vaffie]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

[Thunder44]

Nothing seems to be developing at the surface. Buoy 42055 is under the north side that ball of convection and it showing the pressure rising last hour to 30.04" or 1017mb. Winds have been variable and weak as well.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[HouTXmetro]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Thats a bold call, are you willing to eat crow? Feathers included?

[Opal storm]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

This thing is far from a TD,I highly doubt this will be a storm by tonight or tomorrow morning.Maybe a TD tomorrow if convection persists and it stays over water.

[southerngale]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Thats a bold call, are you willing to eat crow? Feathers included?

[HouTXmetro]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

This thing is far from a TD,I highly doubt this will be a storm by tonight or tomorrow morning.Maybe a TD tomorrow if convection persists and it stays over water.

In My Southern/Texas Accent: "I know, but to the eeyes it just looks so Niiise"

[stormtruth]

The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Thats a bold call, are you willing to eat crow? Feathers included?

poor little birdie

[drezee]

Nothing seems to be developing at the surface. Buoy 42055 is under the north side that ball of convection and it showing the pressure rising last hour to 30.04" or 1017mb. Winds have been variable and weak as well.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

Rising pressure sounds like a thunderstorm collapse

[Mattie]

If you are -removed- - please wishcast for the rain to move into North Texas!!! WE NEED IT BAD - we are down to water restrictions of only once a week (on garbage day) and hose watering before 10:00 a.m. and after 7:00 p.m. If we don't get rain, we'll probably be down to just once a week and there is brand new sod in the yeard! Please wish for rain!!

[curtadams]

I think wxman57 nailed it. The entire area of disturbance (which extends well into inland Mexico) is rotating ccw around a spot inland around 21.5N 98W. So, yeah, it went inland. While it's possible that the convection out in the BOC could relocate the center they're behind the 8-ball. The overall circulation which is moving them north now will bring them onto the coast in a day or so, and the steering is still WNW.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. The swirl I see is over water at about 95.5W 20.5N.

Yes, there's a subordinate swirl there. But the master circulation is inland, and basically everything S of 25 and W of 92 to the edge of the GOM map is rotating around it, including the swirl out in the bay. It has maybe a day to take over or the master circ will run it aground and kill it. Even then it faces the steering, which will do about the same.

[corpusbreeze]

Nothing seems to be developing at the surface. Buoy 42055 is under the north side that ball of convection and it showing the pressure rising last hour to 30.04" or 1017mb. Winds have been variable and weak as well.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

What is interesting is the west to west north west winds starting to show from that location.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg

This thing keeps on getting better organized. I doubt at this time the low is already over land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My thinking is this is a trough axis with a weak v-max at 21.5 north/98 west. But I also see that this axis go northwest to southeast all the way into the deep convection. Where there might be another v-max at 20.5 under the southwestern side of the big blow up of convection. See I expect the v-max/MLC that has formed on the northwestern side of the trough axis to weaken...At the same time the convection should help to strengthen the southeastern part which is under the Convection. Which would help to bring it down to the surface. So based on the buoy to the north its not at the surface yet, but this area of convection reminds me of a few systems last 5 years that formed in the BOC.

[vaffie]

We'll see. I might have to, but this storm looks a lot stronger than you guys are giving it credit. It doesn't have to become a TD first anyway, if it has a closed circulation and strong-enough winds, which I'm sure it will have in the next few hours if that convection hangs on. The buoy you're talking about is 125 miles NNE of the predicted center anyway, so with a developing system like this, it's not going to tell you much. And the central convection did not begin until just two hours ago. Wind is a lagging indicator anyway, especially that far off. First the pressure drops in the center, and then the winds pick up.

[corpusbreeze]

If there is a low forming I would say it is located around 20.5 /95.8.