94L Invest Comments Thread #2

#1 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:33 pm

2nd one

Here is the first thread on it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=460

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:36 pm

I just posted this on the last thread:

looks like a nice ball of convection is starting to fire around the "swirl":

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:50 pm

Taking a look at the latest visible loop I have availble to me(from S2K home page) I still do not see a LLC. There is possibly a MLC associated with the most Southern blob, but I can not pick out any thing at the surface to the N of the blob that gives me an indication of anything reaching down yet. the shear is obviously still at work and despite protestations to the contrary the sat pic tells the story. It is still there and it is still working against this system. Unless there are drastic changes that I am not anticipating I do not see a TC out of this within the next 24 hours at a minimum.

HurricaneHunter914 · #4 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:50 pm

If this Invest continues to organize a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement might be issued.

#5 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:53 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Taking a look at the latest visible loop I have availble to me(from S2K home page) I still do not see a LLC. There is possibly a MLC associated with the most Southern blob, but I can not pick out any thing at the surface to the N of the blob that gives me an indication of anything reaching down yet. the shear is obviously still at work and despite protestations to the contrary the sat pic tells the story. It is still there and it is still working against this system. Unless there are drastic changes that I am not anticipating I do not see a TC out of this within the next 24 hours at a minimum.

I agree with you VB. I also do not see anything resembling an LLC at the surface...possibly mid levels, but that's about it for the moment. The overall satellite imagery does look impressive, but I still don't believe it's anything at the surface.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:58 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:If this Invest continues to organize a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement might be issued.

Looks like the tops are really starting to warm over the last couple of hours...which means any major development trend is going to have to wait for another round to fire up at some other time. The current blob is going to wither away and a new pne will need to form. Once tops start to warm in these weak systems...the don't cool down again...they usuallu have to form a new convective complex rather than rebuilding the old one...

And right now it appears the current one is on the decline.

#7 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:04 pm

Yeah, even JB on his video late this morning says he doesn't see a low level circulation yet. If one does form, he sees potential within 48 hours of a system ramping up in the western GOM ... but until that time ...

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:06 pm

I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:11 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

Yeah...think so...and the local guys are still only putting out a 20% chance for the Houston area. I agree with there high chances out west...but think they are underplaying the chances for the Houston area. I think they should at least be in the 40-50% range for the weekend and thru the 4th.

Scorpion · #10 Postby **Scorpion** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:14 pm

Look at the bright side... at least theres no dry air :wink:

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:14 pm

Just as they did in the early morning hours when the clouds warmed, new pops fired up and began another "colder blob". Maybe a sign it's starting that again?

#12 Postby **BreinLa** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:20 pm

Okay you Texans make sure you share some of that wet stuff lol

#13 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:23 pm

BreinLa wrote:Okay you Texans make sure you share some of that wet stuff lol

No joke....but I don't see what's the point in us getting any rain here because it'll all just flow into the large cracks in the ground.

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

Yeah...think so...and the local guys are still only putting out a 20% chance for the Houston area. I agree with there high chances out west...but think they are underplaying the chances for the Houston area. I think they should at least be in the 40-50% range for the weekend and thru the 4th.

Could this be the reason you're only seeing a 20% chance for the Houston area?
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 85#1360685

I remember the Lake Charles NWS having a problem one time and the point forecast was stuck for many days, but the correct forecast was in the zone forecast. I emailed them about it and they explained what happened with the software, so maybe it's something similar since the zone forecast for Houston seems correct.

Extremeweatherguy · #15 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:34 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

Yeah...think so...and the local guys are still only putting out a 20% chance for the Houston area. I agree with there high chances out west...but think they are underplaying the chances for the Houston area. I think they should at least be in the 40-50% range for the weekend and thru the 4th.

they are. according to the Houston NWS discussions, rain chances go to 50% tomorrow and 60% Sunday.

#16 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

Yeah...think so...and the local guys are still only putting out a 20% chance for the Houston area. I agree with there high chances out west...but think they are underplaying the chances for the Houston area. I think they should at least be in the 40-50% range for the weekend and thru the 4th.
they are. according to the Houston NWS discussions, rain chances go to 50% tomorrow and 60% Sunday.

Great catch...thanks!

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:37 pm

skysummit wrote:Just as they did in the early morning hours when the clouds warmed, new pops fired up and began another "colder blob". Maybe a sign it's starting that again?

May be. Alberto did this same thing many times before taking off and becoming a TD then TS.

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:39 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I must agree with you on that for sure Nelson. I hadn't looked at the IR, but just did. Those tops are definitely warming in the main blob and quite quickly too imo. Maybe something tomorrow, but nothing soon for sure. Meanwhile the surge of moisture is still heading our way and it continues to look like we may have a wet weekend in TX.

Yeah...think so...and the local guys are still only putting out a 20% chance for the Houston area. I agree with there high chances out west...but think they are underplaying the chances for the Houston area. I think they should at least be in the 40-50% range for the weekend and thru the 4th.
they are. according to the Houston NWS discussions, rain chances go to 50% tomorrow and 60% Sunday.

Great catch...thanks!

No problem. The same thing happened to me. I was wondering why they still had 20% pops with all the modeling and even their own discussions pointing to a wet pattern. Then, after looking at their temp/pop forecast on the discussion I realized what was going on. It has been like this for a few days though. Hopefully they will fix this soon.

UPDATE: They just fixed it. Below is the latest Houston forecast.

This Afternoon...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Independence Day...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Grease Monkey · #19 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
skysummit wrote:Just as they did in the early morning hours when the clouds warmed, new pops fired up and began another "colder blob". Maybe a sign it's starting that again?

May be. Alberto did this same thing many times before taking off and becoming a TD then TS.

I think another difference was that the NHC seemed to believe Alberto had a good chance to develope even when many people here thought it would not, but the NHC doesn't seem to think much of this blob in gulf at all.

HouTXmetro · #20 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:02 pm

BUT, But it looks so nice on satellite.

94L Invest Comments Thread #2

94L Invest Comments Thread #2

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