Near Bahamas Blob

no advance · #61 Postby **no advance** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:09 pm

The low levels are already in the Bahamas. I believe what catches our eyes is a mid level which I beieve will dissapear soon. Watch south of Fl. for develpment Just giving you all my two bits. Have a nice wkend.

x-y-no · #62 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:19 pm

I don't know what the excitement is. There's some strong upper-level divergence there, but pretty much no low-level convergence and nothing but ESE winds at the surface. Even the wave axis, which is out ahead of this convection somewhat, is really very weak.

#63 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:21 pm

x-y-no wrote:I don't know what the excitement is. There's some strong upper-level divergence there, but pretty much no low-level convergence and nothing but ESE winds at the surface. Even the wave axis, which is out ahead of this convection somewhat, is really very weak.

There are no buoys or ship reports out there - except a ship happened to be in the area earlier and reported a SW wind and pressure dropping slowly....how do we know there are just ESE winds out there? Do you have a link?

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98

x-y-no · #64 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I don't know what the excitement is. There's some strong upper-level divergence there, but pretty much no low-level convergence and nothing but ESE winds at the surface. Even the wave axis, which is out ahead of this convection somewhat, is really very weak.

There are no buoys or ship reports out there - except a ship happened to be in the area earlier and reported a SW wind and pressure dropping slowly....how do we know there are just ESE winds out there? Do you have a link?

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98

Just by sattelite - visible and RGB - all I see as far as low-level is ESE winds. The wave axis is well out ahead of all the convection, so one sees that bend. But if there were some beginnings of surface circulation under that convection, one would see it reflected in some variation in wind direction around the periphery. There's none.

Bane · #65 Postby **Bane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:23 pm

Upper level winds are very strong through that region. I seriously doubt anything will form there until those winds relax.

storms NC · #66 Postby **storms NC** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:28 pm

It May not turn in to much in your book. But the east coast doesn't need any more rain. And that is what it will be a rain maker.

Bane · #67 Postby **Bane** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:35 pm

That's only if it ever makes it to the east coast. NWS in Wilmington thinks it stays offshore for now. We've really been lucky down here. There hasn't been any flooding problems at all. Most of the rains were inland and north of us. I hope it doesn't reach the northeast area of the country.

storms NC · #68 Postby **storms NC** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:38 pm

Bane wrote:That's only if it ever makes it to the east coast. NWS in Wilmington thinks it stays offshore for now. We've really been lucky down here. There hasn't been any flooding problems at all. Most of the rains were inland and north of us. I hope it doesn't reach the northeast area of the country.

Very true. We are wet here but no flooding but Jacksonville on has had way to much.

#69 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:46 pm

This will NOT develop anytime soon.

It has no organization at all. I can see why it is not an Invest...

storms NC · #70 Postby **storms NC** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This will NOT develop anytime soon.

It has no organization at all. I can see why it is not an Invest...

I know that it is not organization to it. We are more concern over the rain that it MAY bring to the east coast. 8-)

Cyclenall · #71 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:56 pm

Bane wrote:Upper level winds are very strong through that region. I seriously doubt anything will form there until those winds relax.

Go check the shear maps right now, 0-5 knots of shear where this blob is. :wink:

Funny huh?

Weatherboy1 · #72 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:07 pm

Doesn't look like there is much shear in the upper levels around that area to me, just based on the cloud movement. The upper level clouds appear to be rotating clockwise, signalling upper level HIGH pressure. In fact, shear values are falling rapidly there, as you can see from this map:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

It appears to me this disturbance appears as if it's located to the SW of the big Bermuda high and the SE of the east CONUS trough in area of "relative" tranquility. I will admit there is no sign of a surface circulation that I can see. However, the popcorn shape of some of the storms firing up in the area tell me something COULD get going at the surface later.

Just my two cents.

rainbird · #73 Postby **rainbird** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:09 pm

Very true. We are wet here but no flooding but Jacksonville on has had way to much.[/quote]

Will agree on that statement - but our newly planted sod appreciated the rain -

HurricaneHunter914 · #74 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:39 pm

No shear at all. In fact this might have a better chance at development than 94L.

CHRISTY · #75 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:14 pm

blob not moving in south florida's direction?

skufful · #76 Postby **skufful** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:17 pm

CHRISTY wrote:blob not moving in south florida's direction?

Your arrow on your picture is pointed NNE.

#77 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:20 pm

Here is the current shear map:

And 48 hr prediction:

There is some shear over and near it, but not extremely high values.

CHRISTY · #78 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:22 pm

skufful wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:blob not moving in south florida's direction?

Your arrow on your picture is pointed NNE.

yes i know cause that blob is not moving towards florida....its actually moving NW.atleast this is what iam hearing right now.

#79 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:22 pm

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
AREA SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Above is the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for this area.

CHRISTY · #80 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
AREA SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Above is the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook for this area.

that confirms what iam sayin...its moving NW.

Near Bahamas Blob

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