Invest 95L,E of Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[CHRISTY]

Giving to me by an anonymous source..

sorry but if that person would look a little more closely he see that the front / trough has disapated... you can see the low level flow on that images in and around the SE us and the steering currents are very week and actually here in FLORIDA WE HAVE A ENE WIND>>>>> that means there is a HIGH pressure to our north and the NHC in the disscusion also says that ae well ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rgb.html

and another thing.. the trough that has been sitting over the east coast is lifting out and a large high is forcast to build in behind it you can see that on water vapor that there is no trough digging south ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

i do agree with him that the pressures are high in the area .. but that means nothing excpet the pressures are high and it will take just a little more time for them to fall if we get LLC

[/quote]

yea james thats weird....some promets here in southflorida also mentioned a huge high building in.also i might add mike watkins also spoke a little about this big high building.

[wxman57]

Giving to me by an anonymous source..

sorry but if that person would look a little more closely he see that the front / trough has disapated... you can see the low level flow on that images in and around the SE us and the steering currents are very week and actually here in FLORIDA WE HAVE A ENE WIND>>>>> that means there is a HIGH pressure to our north and the NHC in the disscusion also says that ae well ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rgb.html

and another thing.. the trough that has been sitting over the east coast is lifting out and a large high is forcast to build in behind it you can see that on water vapor that there is no trough digging south ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

i do agree with him that the pressures are high in the area .. but that means nothing excpet the pressures are high and it will take just a little more time for them to fall if we get LLC

[/quote]

I don't look for surface winds to steer such disturbances. Look aloft, probably in the mid levels. Though the surface front may be weak, the disturbance is near the western periphery of the 700mb and 500mb ridge. As such, a track to the north is most likely. The trof (aloft) axis is right along the east U.S. coast, perhaps just offshore. That position isn't going to change much over the next few days, so the chances are that this disturbance will stay off the east U.S. coast then turn NE and out to sea are good. Another trof reaches the east U.S. coat on Sunday, too.

[SouthFloridawx]

So are we talking about an upper level trough?

The trof (aloft) axis is right along the east U.S. coast, perhaps just offshore. That position isn't going to change much over the next few days, so the chances are that this disturbance will stay off the east U.S. coast then turn NE and out to sea are good. Another trof reaches the east U.S. coat on Sunday, too

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

I see some pretty high winds in the upper levels on the 300mb wind/hghts.

[wxmann_91]

Somebody in the Navy's Invest happy...

Alberto was in a VERY good environment for development. It was parked over an UL anticyclone for several days, and had model support for development for quite some time. Sure, it moved away from the good environment, into a bad environment, but not before it developed.

All these Invests are developing in a completely different environment. No model has been showing any type of development for quite some time now. Strong westerlies continue to dominate the Atlantic. This has been providing sufficient UL divergence for several "blobs" to pop, but these blobs cannot organize; a TC cannot develop. You can't run away from those Westerlies in the Atlantic.

Just look at the WV loop, and this shear map (remember, I pay attention to the orange lines showing the direction, not the speed):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[CHRISTY]

Guys the path is clearly their for this new invest to move north!SEE.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Giving to me by an anonymous source..

sorry but if that person would look a little more closely he see that the front / trough has disapated... you can see the low level flow on that images in and around the SE us and the steering currents are very week and actually here in FLORIDA WE HAVE A ENE WIND>>>>> that means there is a HIGH pressure to our north and the NHC in the disscusion also says that ae well ... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rgb.html

and another thing.. the trough that has been sitting over the east coast is lifting out and a large high is forcast to build in behind it you can see that on water vapor that there is no trough digging south ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

i do agree with him that the pressures are high in the area .. but that means nothing excpet the pressures are high and it will take just a little more time for them to fall if we get LLC

I don't look for surface winds to steer such disturbances. Look aloft, probably in the mid levels. Though the surface front may be weak, the disturbance is near the western periphery of the 700mb and 500mb ridge. As such, a track to the north is most likely. The trof (aloft) axis is right along the east U.S. coast, perhaps just offshore. That position isn't going to change much over the next few days, so the chances are that this disturbance will stay off the east U.S. coast then turn NE and out to sea are good. Another trof reaches the east U.S. coat on Sunday, too.[/quote]

Giving to me again...

yeah i agree that normally the steering flow is in the mid and upper levels when we have vertical stacking .. but in this case we havea weak system and any surface reflection that does exist or that may form will most likely be steered by the lower levels .. and the forcast calls for that trough sitting on east coast to lift out to the NE as it is already doing.. and also there is not enough energy with that trof to do anything anyway., as for its postion ... it is presently caught in between that 700mb to 500mb ridge that is why there is not a lot of present motion if anything there should be some movement in that direction but there is not because there is not energy to kick it out

also over the next few days a large ridge is forcast to build in and drive anything west to WNW
and post this with that
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
and tell them that the trof is going to lift out leaving and ridge

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the WV imagry it definitely looks like it's gonna be moving around the ridge. It is on the western side as indicated by the dry air heading down from the north and east.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[wxmann_91]

also over the next few days a large ridge is forcast to build in and drive anything west to WNW
and post this with that
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
and tell them that the trof is going to lift out leaving and ridge

You contradicted yourself. You said the lower levels, and that is a map of the upper levels. 850 mb map shows this storm developing slightly and then carried off by a second trough out to sea:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

[CHRISTY]

accuweather is showin the jetstream up to the north by saturday

[TS Zack]

It is so far North it will get picked-up by the Westerlies.

I think we should watch for a piece to break off and get caught in the low-level flow, then that may move towards Florida. Maybe the t-storms over Hispanola will cause some convection to fire in the Bahamas with time.

[JamesFromMaine2]

also over the next few days a large ridge is forcast to build in and drive anything west to WNW
and post this with that
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
and tell them that the trof is going to lift out leaving and ridge

You contradicted yourself. You said the lower levels, and that is a map of the upper levels. 850 mb map shows this storm developing slightly and then carried off by a second trough out to sea:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

no i did not becasue i said that the system is weak ..i was just mentioning that because you said that the mid and upper levels would steer the storm i disagree as long as the system stays weak

[CHRISTY]

Ok guys this is from Joe B.

Another disturbance is west-northwest across the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday. Upper-level winds will remain unfavorable for development over the next couple days but, as this system tracks west, it will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to South Florida later this weekend into early next week.

[SouthFloridawx]

Although I do think it's trapped on the western edge of the ridge. For this area of convection to move to the west rather than northwest, the High would have to build in to the north of it. With the trough lifting out I don't see that happening. Although as TS Zack (Not quoting him just incorporating what he said) mentioned, it is a possibility that some of the energy on the south end could get caught in the westerlies at the lowest levels and be push towards Florida.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Are there any surface troughs being forecasted near florida or the bahamas in the next few days?

EDIT to include the TPC forecast of a Surface trough near florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[jabber]

I think everybody (minus pro mets) need to take a deep breath. Its early in the season. We from all accounts, are going to have a busy season ahead. Lets work togather. This is a great resource we have, lets not ruin it.

[cycloneye]

I think everybody (minus pro mets) need to take a deep breath. Its early in the season. We from all accounts, are going to have a busy season ahead. Lets work togather. This is a great resource we have, lets not ruin it.

Agree 100% with those words.The season is in it's early stages as July arrives,being a slow month on average.We will be tired tracking systems at the same time at the peak of the season so let's be patient and read what our resident pro mets have to say about what is going on in the tropics as they have the expertise to analize all the factors in favor or against a system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the high at the surface should build to the north of it over the next 24 to 36 hours. In which it should move north or northwest through the high over the gulf coast and the azores/Bermuda highs. Then snaped back to the west by a build ridge of high pressure by 24 to 36 hours. Yes theres a trough off the northern east coast by 84 hours. But will that be strong enough to break through?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Also at the 700 milliber level or 10,000 feet the ridge has the hole. In which the trough over the western Atlatnic is forming between the two surface ridges. As you go up to 500 millibars or 18,000 feet its alot more bridged. Or if you up to 300 or 200 millibars you get a soild bridge. So yes what you need to look at is the 500 or to 850 millibar pressure. Above controls the jet streams and upper level lows.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

This is showing some nice banding features on SAT looks like it is organized a little bit more, but if this is going to develop its going to need some more convection over it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear should become favorable for development down the road.

[spinfan4eva]

Local met Mike Beresh here in Jacksonville, fl gives this a chance and says the trough could miss the wave/system and send it westward!

http://www.fox30online.com/talkingtropi ... 9AEDECDEAE

(2) A north-south elongated tropical wave is moving through the Southwest Atlantic & Eastern Caribbean. It appears this wave is splitting into two -- the northern end has exploded with convection east of the Bahamas & north of Puerto Rico & looks pretty impressive on satellite imagery, but there are still indications of southwesterly shear. Even if this system does develop, it would appear that a move northwest then north would occur through the Western Atlantic ahead of a East Coast trough of low pressure. However, there is some chance that the trough could miss the wave as the trough quickly lifts northeast this weekend. If the wave is missed then a turn to the west would be possible & it would become a situation that would have to be carefully watched. We'll know if the trough misses the wave or not by about Sunday.
The Southern part of the wave will move through the Northern Caribbean & South Florida Sunday-Monday with some showers/storms but no development should occur prior to its arrival in Florida.