2006 - The Year of the Invest!

[MWatkins]

It's Invest-O-Rama these days! This reporter asks...why?

I realize this may not be a popular post, because with 2 invests going on we have something to talk about, right?

But looking at the basin tonight, I cannot remember a time where there was so much attention focused on systems with so little going on.

I understand why 93L got tagged. It was a very impressive and well defined wave before it got the daylights sheared out of it.

And I suppose I could give a little bit of a pass on 94L because we know the BOC can spawn stuff on short notice. But even so upper winds were/are very strong and honestly there was not a short-term threat of development yesterday.

And now we have 95L? Seriously? 95L?

With the upper pattern the way it is, and with the global models not picking up on any sort of development, I do have to wonder why we are seeing these invests opened up on these systems.

I seriously do wonder if some rules of engagement have been changed this season...and if we will see an invest opened up on just about every disturbance in 2006.

Or, perhaps it could be a function of having 4 new specialists on board, and this is giving them some experience setting up the models and watching these systems closely. Or perhaps the additional resources are allowing the TPC to spend more time dogging systems in the early going, even if there isn't any specific concern for emminent development.

Perhaps we have invest inflation...an invest just doesn't seem to mean as much as it did in seasons past...at least not so far this year.

MW

****Edited to change 91L to 93L in 4th paragraph*****

[Stratusxpeye]

I agree and have been thinking the same thing. We have had some crazy invests this year that mean absolutely nothing and im not anywhere near a pro met and systems like 93l and 95l were pointless. Agrred the boc can do that and 91l had its fighting chance the entire time and came close. Lets see if this continues anyone see 96l this weekend?

[Scorpion]

93L pointless? How so? It looked almost like a TD when it was categorized.

[Extremeweatherguy]

93L pointless? How so? It looked almost like a TD when it was categorized.

yeah, it was not pointless. That system went on to cause flooding rains and gusts over 50mph in parts of the Carolinas and NE.

[skysummit]

93L pointless? How so? It looked almost like a TD when it was categorized.

yeah, it was not pointless. That system went on to cause flooding rains and gusts over 50mph in parts of the Carolinas and NE.

I believe you got your Invests mixed up. It was 91L that went up the east coast. 93L still has it's wave moving across the Carribean.

[MWatkins]

93L pointless? How so? It looked almost like a TD when it was categorized.

yeah, it was not pointless. That system went on to cause flooding rains and gusts over 50mph in parts of the Carolinas and NE.

I believe you got your Invests mixed up. It was 91L that went up the east coast. 93L still has it's wave moving across the Carribean.

My fault, actually. I was thinking of 93L when I wrote that post.

There have been so many it's hard to keep track...

MW

[skysummit]

93L pointless? How so? It looked almost like a TD when it was categorized.

yeah, it was not pointless. That system went on to cause flooding rains and gusts over 50mph in parts of the Carolinas and NE.

I believe you got your Invests mixed up. It was 91L that went up the east coast. 93L still has it's wave moving across the Carribean.

My fault, actually. I was thinking of 93L when I wrote that post.

There have been so many it's hard to keep track...

MW

No joke! So many candidates, but no real winners.

[SouthFloridawx]

Or, perhaps it could be a function of having 4 new specialists on board, and this is giving them some experience setting up the models and watching these systems closely. Or perhaps the additional resources are allowing the TPC to spend more time dogging systems in the early going, even if there isn't any specific concern for emminent development.

Perhaps we have invest inflation...an invest just doesn't seem to mean as much as it did in seasons past...at least not so far this year.

Mike, Ya know maybe next time you get someone from the Hurricane center on the line or have an interview that may be a question you could ask them. Perhaps it is catching an area of disturbed weather in it's very early stages or perhaps there are other specific reasons.

[Stratusxpeye]

93l east coast? looks like members have posted responses to fix that up so i won't even get into it 91L was the correct system.

*If anyone's interested Im posting this from windows vista 5456 and have been stable for 48 hours straight since install and all progs and drivers work great! Microsoft might have done something right for once.

[spinfan4eva]

Well, it seems every invest is being mentioned by the NHC's TWO and also, there is at least one met here locally as well as one controversial met nationally who are giving these invests at least a chance for development. It seems like in years past, there were a lot of invests that didnt make the TWO. Maybe everybody including the forecasters are on edge after the 2005 season and want no one to be able to deny that they told us so if a system does develop in 2006. Also, does the TV Mets use the NRL/invest site?

[wxmann_91]

I agree. The Navy is still trigger happy from the onslaught last year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In this year not everything is developing like it was last year. So the navy got used to it. The upper level shear is 10 times less faverable this season, with a deeper tutt over the Atlantic.(ULL's)Which remind me of the 2000 and 2002 season which had alot of shear. Yes they had there strong ones. I believe even with the super hot water in which I think the western caribbean into the gulf should slowly become more faverable. That this season will not be any where in the same rank as 2005.

This is why I think we will only have 15 named storms. Yes that is very active. In back to the 10 year norm from 1995 to 2005. Also 2003 had 16 named storms,2004 had 15 named storms. Falling inline. Plus the tropical waves are weaker this year.

[Cyclenall]

In this year not everything is developing like it was last year. So the navy got used to it. The upper level shear is 10 times less faverable this season, with a deeper tutt over the Atlantic.

I want proof that the Atlantic ocean shear is 10X less favorable this season. That sounds crazy.

[Old-TimeCane]

Hmm...maybe we should start making forecasts about how many invests there will be at the beginning of each season?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe not 10 times less faverable. But much less then last year...With tropical waves about 5 to 8 degrees south of last year. Which means theres a stronger Azores high.

1# a fast east to west flow from the Azores high means that waves will likely be moving at over 20 knots this year. At least intill mid August. Which is pretty normal. Also keeps waves from closing off a LLC.

2# This strong azores high also pumps and rechanges the SAL over the eastern Atlatnic.

Also we have a strong tutt this year. If I remember right its like 2000 or 2002 like. Which should keep tropical cyclones from moving across. Alot more recurvers and systems getting sheared.

I believe with the very warm sst's that we will have numbers like 2003,2004...Which where around 15 or 16 named storms.

This is my option...

[rainstorm]

they are invest happy

[clfenwi]

As y'all may recall I'd gone back to last year to see how this year compared... at the moment 2006 is even with 2005.. 96Lwas classified on July 2...decided to do the same for 2004... here's the break-out...

90 May 20 Caribbean
91 May 24 Bahamas
92 June 3 East Atlantic wave
93 June 12 Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance Statements issued
94 Jun 14 wave east of Lesser Antilles
95 Jul 5 east Atlantic wave
96 Jul 8 system sw of Bermuda
97 Jul 19 wave east of Lesser Antilles
98 Jul 22 area ne of Bahamas
99 Jul 29 area east of Bahamas became Alex

[kenl01]

I also think the reaon for so many invests is because they are still paranoid about the last two seasons, which is probably understandable. They are so scared after last year that every cloud now has to be investigated..........

[terstorm1012]

I suspect it's more to get the newbies up to speed on getting models set up, et cetera. Real World Training, in a sense. Simulated training just doesn't cut it toward real world experience.

[bigmoney755]

That this season will not be any where in the same rank as 2005.

Where would you rank the 1992 hurricane season with 6 named storms? Where would you rank the 1969 hurricane season with 13 named storms?