Possible Monsoon '06 start?

[azsnowman]

Could it be.....the infancy of the 2006 Monsoon season? Don't like the "dry lightning" forecast however, it happens every year and with the way the forest service is jumpin' on these fires, it shouldn't be TOO bad.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 222112 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 215 PM MST THU JUN 22 2006 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND STARTING ON FRIDAY INCREASING THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A TEN TO TWENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. && .DISCUSSION... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO FLOWING WESTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY DEEP WELL MIXED AND WARM BNDY LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CLOUDS WITH A TENDENCY TOWARDS DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE TRENDS ON GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHOWED A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE KEY IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. OUR FORECAST GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

[azskyman]

Hi Dennis. Areas near Steve in Sierra Vista got some 1"+ rains a couple of days ago, and the high clouds and cirrus remnants have meandered up our way this morning bringing Phoenix a dew point of 55 as of daybreak. This could be good news for rains, but often means dry thunderstorms with gusty winds for miles and miles in front of them. That kind of wind scenario in Oak Creek Canyon right now would be really bad news.

[Aquawind]

Calm the winds and bring on the Monsoon!

[azsnowman]

Calm the winds and bring on the Monsoon!

Yes INDEEDY and here's what NWS Flag is saying THIS morning

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

EXTENDED...LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEK INDICATE THAT THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ROUTINELY OCCURRING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MOIST OUTFLOWS THAT CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...PRIMING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE TRANSITION FROM A HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO A MORE MOIST ONE. THE ONSET OF THE MONSOON OVER ARIZONA COULD OCCUR SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

[weatherbee1982]

With the high setting up on the four corners, and the other setting up over S TX, this is definitely looking favorable. Another favorable item is that the inverted troughs, a necessary item for convection enhancement, have formed three different times. Each one brought a burst of convection and added moisture to the atmosphere here in S AZ. So things are definitely setting up and looking good.

[wxmann_91]

NWS San Diego also says some monsoonal moisture next week. Will watch and take some photos of the anvils next week if necessary.

[arizonasooner]

I was really liking not having to worry about lack of rain now that we've moved to Tulsa, OK from Phoenix. But it appears the "monsoon" started with a bang here in Oklahoma.... Check out the backyard from eariler this week. Too much rain is NOT a good thing.

[weatherbee1982]

Right now, conditions here in SE AZ don't look quite as good as it did on Wednesday. Dew points have fallen, PWV values have tappered off considerably and the upwind flow has a dry slot. Off to wash the car again, as Murphy's Law has never failed me on that count.

[azsnowman]

LOL @ weatherbee, yeah, I'm heading to car "warsh" today too, warshing all 3 vehicles......let's see what Ma Nature thinks of THAT!

[weatherbee1982]

The Monsoon in Tucson, AZ has officially started on June 28th. The third consecutive day of 54 degree + dewpoints occurred. So now it is a matter of whether this year's monsoon can help alleviate this severe drought we are under.

[Stephanie]

When I was visiting my father last week in CO, there was thunder heard each day and a few drops of rain but that was it. He lives west of Pueblo in the "Wet Mountain" area. He finally received a good dousing of rain the day I flew back.

[SEAZSky]

Here is what ALSKAHUNA says for the '06 Monsoon:

http://tinyurl.com/d2l9f

A little "technical", but interesting.......

Stan - Oro Valley, AZ
AZ Skywarn - SE AZ

[Aquawind]

Sounds promising for the SW. I dream of dewpoints below 54..lol Hope the monsoon kicks in full gear for everyone no later than that July 5-10 time frame.